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World Elections 2017

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Jubal:
A usual updates-on-the-news thread.

Several countries have major elections coming up in 2017 - the most prominent of these are probably France (presidential & legislative), the Netherlands (legislative), Germany (legislative & presidential), South Korea (presidential), and New Zealand (legislative).

A preview as follows of those:

France - eyes are mostly on the presidency, which has a 2-round run-off system. Far-right National Front leader Marine le Pen seems certain to win the first round, but is likely to get trounced by whichever of her three opponents makes it through to the second round. This looked to be hardline right-winger Francois Fillon, but he's been embroiled in a scandal over payments to family members and has now slipped just behind Emmanuel Macron, a former banker making an outsider run as centrist, free market, pro-EU candidate. The socialist candidate, Hamon, is only a few points behind these two, running with a classically socialist platform and having managed to pull socialist votes back from some of the further left parties who had previously been set to eclipse the socialists thanks to incumbent socialist president Hollande's unpopularity. If Hamon can pull more votes away from the leftist parties he may yet overtake Macron and Fillon and sneak into the second round. In the legislative election the FN are expected to gain significantly at the expense of both the Republicans and the Socialists, with them likely overtaking the socialists for second place in the initial vote - but, as the two-round system also operates here, they may still not manage to gain as many seats as other voters may join forces to lock them out.

Netherlands - The centre-right VVD party is in government along with the Labour party - the latter has seen a catastrophic crash in support, alongside a surge in the anti-immigrant, anti-Islam PVV which may see them overtake the VVD as the largest party. The social-liberal D66 are likely to overtake Labour as the largest centre-left challenger, but will still probably be well behind the VVD and PVV. What this could mean for a future government is unclear; the VVD have taken a less pro-immigration stance to try and weaken the PVV challenge, but neither party will be able to govern alone, and coalition negotiations are likely to be as important as the election in determining the next government.

Germany - Chancellor Angela Merkel's position is probably stable, though she is facing an unexpectedly strong challenge from Martin Schulz of the social democrats, a leading European parliamentarian and former bookseller who has taken over leadership of his centre-left party. Merkel's popularity has weakened as a result of international crises but is still broadly strong; the more socially conservative, anti-immigration AfD may nonetheless make gains and may become the third largest party by votes despite currently having no parliamentary seats, leapfrogging the Left and the Greens. On the other side, the liberal FDP may also just about pass the 5% threshold needed to enter parliament again.

South Korea - after the conservative President's impeachment in 2016, the liberal opposition see a chance to regain the presidency here. After the conservative Saenuris lost control of the legislature last year, this could mark a shift in direction, though the liberal Minjoo leadership have also moved somewhat to the right in recent years.

New Zealand - this is set to be an easy win for incumbent leader Bill English, with his National party, in power since 2008, set to secure not far short of 50% of the vote and potentially run up as much as a 20% margin over their weak Labour opposition. This will be English's first election at the helm, having taken over from John Key who recently decided to retire after 8 years in the job.

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