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Art, Writing, and Learning: The Clerisy Quarter => Discussion and Debate - The Philosopher's Plaza => Topic started by: Jubal on January 08, 2023, 08:28:42 PM

Title: World Politics and Elections 2023
Post by: Jubal on January 08, 2023, 08:28:42 PM
For those places that don't have a separate thread.



We start the year with déjà vu news of the hard right storming the capitol - but this time we're in Brazil, where supporters of Bolsonaro have tried to attack the presidential and parliamentary buildings in Brasilia. Not yet clear what the outcomes will be.
Title: Re: World Politics and Elections 2023
Post by: Jubal on January 28, 2023, 10:28:53 PM
Petr Pavel has beaten Andrej Babis in the Czech republic for the presidency. It's not a powerful executive presidency or anything, but it's a pretty strong result for the much more pro-western of the two candidates.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-europe-64438955
Title: Re: World Politics and Elections 2023
Post by: Jubal on March 21, 2023, 09:23:05 AM
In Nigeria, despite a big showing from the Labour Party, previously a tiny party but now led by a popular defector from one of the two larger parties, Peter Obi, the ruling APC (a big tent party-of-power) seem to have held the presidency though with just 36% of the vote.  Obi's Labour Party have also made some gains in the Senate and House and by the looks of the BBC results readout (https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/resources/idt-9ff664e9-8cf9-4948-93e5-3268debcee1b) may yet have deprived the APC of a majority. It will be interesting to see if they can continue building on this success. Tomorrow there is a large round of gubernatorial elections (https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2023_Nigerian_gubernatorial_elections) as well.

The agrarian-populist-rightwing party BBB seems to have done very well in Dutch regional elections, mostly at the expense of the far right but also at the expense of the governing coalition who apparently might now find it very difficult to get agriculture reforms (intended to reduce nitrate pollution) implemented.

In Estonia the right-liberal party of Kaja Kallas absolutely stormed their election last month, with far-right EKRE and Russian-minority party Center doing rather poorly. It looks like the Social Democrats and the liberal E200 are likely coalition partners.

In the Berlin local elections the CDU got a very impressive first place, at the expense of basically everyone else. It's hard to imagine big European cities in some other countries being run by conservatives - in the anglosphere we're very used to urban areas being bastions of the left nowadays. The CDU/CSU are also now well ahead in national polls, with Scholz's social democrats really rather struggling.
Title: Re: World Politics and Elections 2023
Post by: Jubal on April 01, 2023, 02:11:00 PM
Two key elections tomorrow!

Finland has the far right, centre right, and centre left in a tussle to be the lead party in the next government and see who will deal with Finland entering NATO. PM Sanna Marin is generally well thought of, I think, though the centre right are slightly higher in the polls.

Bulgaria has the centre-right GERB neck and neck with a bunch of anti-corruption parties in an alliance: it's been unstable politically for a while now, and I'm not sure this election will bring a stable government either. The next two parties down are the Turkish-minority liberals DPS, and the extreme-nationalist Revival, probably both unpalatable coalition partners for the two larger players.



Outside Europe: in Australia, the Liberal Party became the first opposition party to lose a by-election in over a century. Generally in a lot of the Anglosphere it seems like the suburbs have shifted sharply to support soft centrist centre-leftists (Biden, Albanese, Starmer). Unlike in the US, Australia's division of seats and territories doesn't give the right a big bonus for its rural seats. Unlike in the UK, fractures on the left damage the Australian Labor Party far less due to the Alternative Vote - I suspect the progressive parties in the UK would often do a bit better if there was a preference voting system, though I'd really like a proportional preference system like STV.

It looks like the Labour Party of Nigeria only won one governorship, Abia. Though there are some interesting posts on this blog (https://markessien.com/posts/drama_of_transcription/) by a Labour supporter about vote rigging in the presidential election.
Title: Re: World Politics and Elections 2023
Post by: dubsartur on May 16, 2023, 06:35:53 AM
So Erdogan did not lose in the first round of the presidential election, which is bad news for Turks, their eastern and southern neighbours, and the EU ... but Moldova is talking about leaving the Commonwealth of Independent States (one of the Russian puppet organizations).
Title: Re: World Politics and Elections 2023
Post by: Jubal on May 16, 2023, 10:27:50 AM
Yes, the Turkish election result is pretty heartbreaking as someone who works on the region. I don't really understand Turkish politics well enough to know how central Erdogan is to the AKP's success, but it's very hard to see how the opposition win this election (and there seems to be an AKP parliamentary majority anyway).

The Thai election result was conversely rather spectacular and a big rejection of military rule, so we'll see how that goes.

In Georgia, the ruling party has withdrawn from the European social-democrat party as part of its move towards embracing Orban, and they seem to be having increasingly tight relations with the Kremlin, which won't be popular among the public in Georgia itself.

EDIT: Also the BBC has been dipping into investigations of the Nigerian election, which seems to have included some absolutely wild bits of fraud that are provable from the local tally sheets. https://www.bbc.com/news/65163713

(https://ichef.bbci.co.uk/news/976/cpsprodpb/17EE0/production/_129661089_oyigbo.png.webp)
Title: Re: World Politics and Elections 2023
Post by: dubsartur on May 16, 2023, 10:15:21 PM
Yes, the Turkish election result is pretty heartbreaking as someone who works on the region. I don't really understand Turkish politics well enough to know how central Erdogan is to the AKP's success, but it's very hard to see how the opposition win this election (and there seems to be an AKP parliamentary majority anyway).
Even in democracies, parties tend to crash at the next election when a leader resigns after more then ten years in power.  So I would expect that when Erdogan dies, loses an election so badly he can't cheat, or retires, the AKP in Turkey will have a crisis.  Five or ten more years of Erdogan would be bad.

One big problem with being a dictator behind an electoral front is that to hold power you have to do crimes, so you have to worry that the next guy has you prosecuted to make sure you are not a threat or please the people who were wronged.  People say that Xi in China was afraid of that when he decided to run for a third term.
Title: Re: World Politics and Elections 2023
Post by: Jubal on May 28, 2023, 10:08:18 PM
It appears that Erdogan has won :( We kind of already knew that from the first round, but it's still very sad.
Title: Re: World Politics and Elections 2023
Post by: Jubal on July 17, 2023, 06:12:37 PM
So, unexpected Dutch election later this year! I think from the minimal stuff I can find, anyone who thinks they know how it'll go is lying, especially because the amount of potential flux and voter church involved is unusually massive. The long serving Dutch PM, Rutte, basically seems to have forced the election on a point of nominal principle and then pissed off instead of fighting it which is frankly a wild political move. This basically leaves his party fighting an election on the back of a hard right-wing immigration policy proposal, but who will lead them and whether they'll stick to that is still unclear, and ironically it might well be a former asylum seeker, the Justice & Security minister Dilan Yeşilgöz-Zegerius. How different a face for the VVD (nominally liberal but actually the main Dutch conservative party) she'd be in practice I don't know.

Some other parties worth immediately noting are the BBB, the big new right-farmer-populist-anti-environmentalist party, the GreenLeft/Social Democrat alliance on the left, the really far right PVV, the environmentalist Party of the Animals, and centre-left-liberal D66 whose disagreement over asylum with the VVD triggered the election: these are basically all the parties that have a reasonable shot of getting 10+ seats. The D66 did really well last time but their leader has resigned due to the amount of political abuse she was getting and they'll probably lose about 2/3 of their seats after being hurt as the party in a largely right-wing coalition with the most left-to-centre voting base (speaking as a member of Britain's Liberal Democrats, I am getting deja vu rather).

Then there's apparently the possibility that a very popular conservative independent, Pieter Omtzigt, might run his own populist anti-corruption/eurosceptic list and some polling has suggested he'd be the largest party in parliament if he did, largely by cratering BBB's support and pulling votes from the right more widely but scraping some voters up from the left too. Basically a LOT of voters seem pretty up for grabs right now. Also, tons of seats are with a plethora of smaller parties and finding a way to make them add up to a government is hellish.

The current centre-right coalition (VVD+D66+CU+CDU) which is basically one centrist party and three conservative ones, had 78 seats of 150 after the last election. It probably won't happen again for two reasons: the VVD+CDU versus CU+D66 split which caused this election to start with, and also the fact that this set of parties would now only combine for 45 seats (!), miles short of a majority. The D66 have lost a big chunk of support leftwards, the CDU and VVD have lost support rightwards. So what are the other options?

Working from a recent poll (Peil.nl, 15–16 Jul 2023), a conservative-far-right coalition prepared to push Rutte's asylum plan through could command up to 84 seats: that's with the VVD, PVV, BBB, JA21, FvD, BVNL, and CDA on board (and you could ditch one or two of the last four and still get a majority, but not any of the first three: the minimum on seats would be something like VVD+PVV+BBB+JA21+CDA). How functional would that be, though? Crucially, it only works if the BBB, largely a party of protest who have minimal experience, can work with the VVD, the party of dry, conservative government who they've been yelling at for years. Between them the two forces combine for fifty of the hypothetical bloc's seats. Then you also need all the scary pretty-much-fascist parties like the PVV in government, which is the kind of thing that might give the VVD some pause for thought given their voters tend to be the sorts of conservatives who like stability rather than ones who like the much more upset-the-apple-cart far right rhetoric of the more extreme right.

Conversely, the implication of the above is that the left are some way off forming a government. The GL/PVdA alliance added to the D66, Party of the Animals, pro-EU Volt, Socialist Party, and minority-focused left parties DENK and B1J1 gets you to 58 seats, well short of 75 for a government.

Then there's the "Bulgaria option", in which basically there's a left bloc, an old conservative bloc, and a populist bloc who cannot work with one another at all, leading to a repetitive run of elections, which honestly might not be out of the question here. I've not seen much in the way of parties setting out red lines for coalitions but it feels like it would not take many (especially from the BBB who are the kind of party who would totally throw out a random badly thought out red line just by gaffeing it into existence in an interview) to basically make a government mathematically impossible.

My divinations are minimal here, but I think how a lot of the new party leaders (especially of the VVD and D66) perform and which direction they want to pull their parties in might be important, and what Omtzigt does may also matter though turning up with no pre-existing political infrastructure to an election is often a pretty good way in politics to badly underperform once the real punches start getting thrown electorally. If Omtzigt did run a list he'd risk a lot of problems with who he could put on it, whether they'd manage to keep message discipline, etc. I also think BBB might do relatively poorly in the election campaign: their leader Caroline van der Plas is apparently not polling super well on who people actually want to be Prime Minister (https://nltimes.nl/2023/07/11/dijkhoff-omtzigt-favorites-new-prime-minister-dijkhoff-interested), so if that seems a serious prospect it might scare centre-right voters back to the VVD to get a safer pair of hands.



But we have more elections! Spain is coming up sooner, that looks fairly clear-cut in that the right look set to win. Podemos seem to have been replaced by another left-party but I'm not sure how much difference that makes.

And then there's Slovakia, where the question at the moment is which of the two wildly corrupt social democratic parties will come first in the election. The hope should probably be that Voice - Social Democracy wins rather than Direction - Social Democracy, in that "Voice" is just corrupt and slightly conservative on social issues whereas "Direction" is corrupt and actively immensely racist and opposed to helping Ukraine defeat Russia. Given they split from each other it's also not clear if they can work together, or who can work with them, but a coalition will definitely be needed. Currently just behind them are Progressive Slovakia, the liberal party, whose major selling point is probably being not obviously corrupt or racist. Then there's a mess of small centre right and far right parties, many of which might not make the 5% threshold, but which whoever wins will probably need to work with to some extent. I think the optimum plausible coalition might be Voice + Progressive + Ordinary People + Christian Democrats, which would be 42% of the vote between them (and with 40-45% going to the other parties above the threshold, that might juuuust be enough). But I also doubt Ordinary People, a centre-right anti-corruption party, would work with Voice.
Title: Re: World Politics and Elections 2023
Post by: Jubal on July 24, 2023, 11:33:07 AM
I rescind my earlier statement about the Spanish election looking clear cut, it looks about as not clear cut as elections in Spain ever have. Far right and Socialists both lost seats to centre-right but the socialists made up for those losses by taking seats from the further left and from the regionalist parties: the centre-right/far-right assumed coalition doesn't have a majority, the left doesn't really have a majority either because there's a Jackson Pollock painting of tiny regionalist parties in the middle some of who will be very very hard to bring into a coalition with the left but won't work with the right either. I don't think Spain really does grand coalitions in its politics, so probably we're going to have yet another Spanish election later this year.

Also the other elections continue to shift: in Slovak polling the liberals have overtaken Hlas to be running in second place, and Ordinary People are running on a joint list and are now polling badly enough that it might fall below the 7% threshold (which would probably be bad news/make it harder to pull an anti-Fico coalition together). As much as 25% of the vote could go to parties falling below the parliamentary thresholds, which feels like a lot - a very fractured political environment with a 5% threshold does cause certain issues.

Meanwhile the main Dutch news is that Labour and the Green Left have more properly launched their joint list, and veteran politician Frans Timmermans has given up his European-level climate change job to run to lead it. They're currently polling in the lead as a joint list, at 18%, so Timmermans has a reasonable chance of leading the largest single party post-election. But he'd probably need the VVD on-side to govern, the BBB are very unlikely to work with someone whose whole brand is European level environmental regulation. Also Omtzigt has been making noises about not running his own list or joining anyone else's, which may remove a source of uncertainty.
Title: Re: World Politics and Elections 2023
Post by: Jubal on August 29, 2023, 08:27:16 AM
An end of August bunch of things:

The big Dutch election news is that Omtzigt is in with a new "New Social Contract" party, after looking like he wasn't going to be: a poll puts him in first, though that does pose him with some major political problems, especially in that he clearly wants to focus on constitutional, scrutiny, and social security issues, but if he's a likely Prime Minister he's going to need to outline positions on the environment and immigration that will make it harder (whatever he says) to hold on to the kaleidoscope of both left and right wing voters he seems to have picked up. He's probably mostly going to hurt the BBB and to a lesser extent the PVV, but he's also pulled small blocks of voters from just about every other party, so his voter base is generally very socially conservative but will include some social liberals. Apparently also the new VVD leader says she is willing to work with the PVV, which keeps the possibility of a big coalition of the right wing very much in play, though VVD might struggle if it doesn't end up running such a coalition.

In Slovakia, an english-language newspaper noted recently that the far-right Republika may have locked themselves out of government by pledging to leave NATO, something even the Orbanist "social democrat" Robert Fico isn't prepared to countenance. They're still polling in fourth, behind Hlas, Progressive Slovakia, and Fico's Smer who continue to lead the polls. Fico is offloading the full range of Orbanist attacks on Progressive Slovakia and on Slovak president Zuzanna Caputova, including claiming she's Orban funded, that corruption cases against his allies are politically motivated, et cetera.



In Central & South America, it looks like the left-wing anti-corruption candidate has clearly won in Guatemala though with pushback from the establishment, and that the progressive candidate won the first round of Ecuador's election (though in the latter case the right-wing vote was more split and I couldn't easily find any run-off polls). Ecuador does seem to have had some major referendums against mining in the rainforest regions which succeeded, which seems like good news from a climate perspective.
Title: Re: World Politics and Elections 2023
Post by: Jubal on September 28, 2023, 01:15:51 PM
Autumn election season is upon us in Europe! Slovakia goes to vote this weekend, then German regional elections and Luxembourg on Oct 8, Poland on Oct 15, and the Netherlands later on Nov 22.

In Slovakia, Progressive Slovakia has narrowed the gap with Smer very significantly, though probably not enough to win. The conservative pro-European Olan'o look like they will get into parliament, and two parties (social conservative Sme Rodina and the pro-EU conservative Democrats) are hovering on 4% with the threshold at 5. It looks tight between blocs, with Hlas struggling a bit as the probable swing party, needing to stomach a far more pro-European stance if they go with PS and the far right if they go with Fico's likely collection of allies. It could be a very messy government formation process if the results look much like the polls.

The German elections in Hesse and Bavaria look clear-cut with the centre-right CDU/CSU respectively remaining dominant in both states, the centre-left doing a few points worse and the far right a few points better than previously. Luxembourg looks like it'll remain stable, its main centre-right party looked to be doing quite badly a year ago but have recovered to about where they were at the time of the last election: the centre-left and centrist coalition government are on track for pretty much the same number of seats, 31, as they had last time (it's a 60 seat chamber). If they fall short, however, the Pirate party is doing quite well and may be a possible addition to a centre-left coalition, so it's likely to be tricky for the Conservatives to form a government unless they can offer the Liberals, Greens or Social Democrats something really good to prise them out of the centre-left bloc.

The Polish government maintains a solid but not insurmountable lead in the polls: the Polish far-right are falling back a little which may be offsetting the government losing a few votes to the main centrist opposition bloc. A hung parliament isn't out of the question, but the opposition will probably struggle to do well enough to prevent Law and Justice remaining in power.
Title: Re: World Politics and Elections 2023
Post by: dubsartur on September 29, 2023, 10:49:37 PM
Its impressive that you have energy and resources to follow national politics in so many countries. 

Do many European countries have fall elections?  Why would that be?

Edit: meanwhile the Azerbaijanis have forced between a quarter and half of the remaining population of Armenian Nagorno-Karabakh to flee after blockading flows of food, fuel, and medicine into the region.  My understanding is that because none of Armenia's neighbours is aligned with both Armenia and the Atlantic democracies, its easy to say 'ethnic cleansing is bad' but hard to suggest what to do.  Some people blame sinister Russians for maintaining 'frozen conflicts' that they can heat up whenever clients get too independent, but General Sir Rupert Smith wrote a whole book about how the UK military is not very good at permanently resolving conflicts either.
Title: Re: World Politics and Elections 2023
Post by: Jubal on September 29, 2023, 10:57:09 PM
I think it's more that very few have midsummer elections or midwinter elections: either suppress turnout rather, midwinter is cold and people won't come out to the polls, and midsummer more people are away, on holidays, disengaged from the news, etc. Also with the political calendar, politicians don't want to cancel their own holidays or push their activists out to fight an election campaign in too much heat or snow. So spring/autumn are more traditional campaign times I think in the large majority of northern hemisphere countries.

I think with me following lots of politics it's a bit of an obsessiveness thing - I like following graphs, and it's a way to consume politics that feels like a setup that I can work through in my head and doesn't lead to me spiralling into terror or guilt-tripping myself into exhausting myself with the really big (and to be honest, more important) problems in the actual public policy arena.
Title: Re: World Politics and Elections 2023
Post by: Jubal on October 09, 2023, 10:59:29 AM
Some updates!

Slovakia is now in coalition talks mode - which direction the country goes depends heavily on Hlas, the smaller and more pro-European social-democratic party. The expectation is that they form a coalition with Robert Fico's Smer, but that would require the nationalist SNS who Hlas explicitly don't want to work with and whose MP list includes some very fascist fascists. Or it would include someone else like the KDH, but the KDH have said they definitely don't want to work with Smer. Peter Pellegrini, the Hlas leader, is probably closer to Smer but would require some real concessions to make it clear that it's worth Hlas being its own party. There's even a possibility Pellegrini will become Prime Minister instead of the more divisive Fico, though this arrangement would still leave Fico with more power as the major coalition partner. If those talks break down, Hlas could also talk to the opposition, we'll see.

Luxembourg's coalition narrowly lost its majority: apparently it's likely that rather than trying to bring the Pirates into government, things will switch over to a centre-right led government with the Social Democrats or Liberals as minority partner. Would not expect huge changes to result from this. The flow of votes between centre-left and right was actually very small: the Greens lost five seats, one of which went to a small right-wing party, but the Liberals gained two, the Social Democrats one, and the Pirates another.

Germany's local elections were horrible for the centre-left/current coalition and pretty good for the hard right and populists, exactly as one would expect from the national polls. It's a bit hard to know what to do about parties like the AfD and FPO at the moment: the slight tightening of finances due to the Ukraine war, plus the transition aches for greener transport, are really biting governments across the centre of the continent.

Poland and the Netherlands are next: my expectation is that PiS will hang on in Poland, possibly in coalition with far-right Konf but I can't see the Civic Coalition pushing them right out of power. I think this election might solidify PiS into much more of an Orbanist party, too: winning will justify their bizarre attacks on the opposition and let them finish consolidating various bits of state capture. In the Netherlands, all bets are off and the polls could still move, I think any government has to contain Omtzigt's New Social Contract and a grand coalition of VVD/NSC/Centre-Left or a right-coalition of some kind are all possible.
Title: Re: World Politics and Elections 2023
Post by: Jubal on October 15, 2023, 12:11:37 AM
We move away from Europe for Oceania to take up the baton of providing depressing voting results: Australia's Indigenous Voice referendum failed, which whilst there were left-indigenous arguments against it I think will basically be taken as vindication for the much larger right wing No campaign which was campaigning against "dividing" Australians by having a formal body to consult indigenous views.

And New Zealand will now have a fully right wing coalition after two Labour governments, it's a sharp rightward swing that will probably mean a bunch of tax cuts that will do nothing to fix a set of cost of living problems mostly imposed by exogenous economic issues.

I feel like it's a bad time to be an incumbent government, but PiS in Poland may prove me wrong tomorrow as I suspect they're going to outperform the polls given how grimly embedded in much of Poland they now seem to be. I also actually genuinely want to run some numbers on political incumbency across Europe to see how much it changes over time - a simple scoring system with rolling averages for changes of government would make interesting reading re incumbency.
Title: Re: World Politics and Elections 2023
Post by: Jubal on October 16, 2023, 10:51:02 PM
PiS did not prove my thesis that it's a rough time to be an incumbent government wrong, and appear to have lost their majority, which is excellent news.

Comparison 2019 to 2023, main opposition in orange, PiS authoritarians in blue:

(https://i.imgur.com/i0bNq1p.png)(https://i.imgur.com/2MibatT.jpg)

And this is a proportional system so the flipped districts look fun but the lightening of deep blue in the PiS stronghold regions is just as important in hacking back their majority. It looks like the exit polls have, unlike in Slovakia, been pretty accurate: we should have official results tomorrow. It's expected that President Duda, who's PiS aligned, will give PiS as the largest party the initial mandate to form a government, but they'll fail  and then it'll pass to the opposition to make an agreement.
Title: Re: World Politics and Elections 2023
Post by: dubsartur on October 31, 2023, 09:49:00 PM
Does anyone have sources for world news these days?  I find that statistics are useless without understanding how they are collected and reported.  I am curious about the world but I don't know where to look for information any more.  I think the only news sources I could really recommend for other than local news lately are:

Al Jazeera is supposed to be good old-school journalism but I don't check them frequently

I have reservations about the following.


Can't recommend any social media accounts on the RU-UA or Hamas-Israel wars or the ongoing COVID pandemic any more.  As independent information on the RU-UA war became scarce, the analysts retired or became partisan hacks.

Edit: there have been lots of important global stories like the Iranian unrest, the Burmese civil war, the Yemen war, and the Tigray War where I have very rarely seen any old or web media coverage that go beyond the odd anecdote
Title: Re: World Politics and Elections 2023
Post by: Jubal on November 06, 2023, 05:13:29 PM
I read a mix of things. I often read the BBC just to get a basic idea of what's happening, it's not good for depth and you have to know its leans and problems but I guess I'm used enough to it that I feel like I can mentally correct for the "BBC balance" issues a bit. I also look at the Kyiv Independent. Politico is my main source for European polling and lobby politics, they have a reasonable ear for the interpersonal dynamics in Brussels though I think their wider scale analysis misses as often as it hits. I think with the Grauniad (as it's often known in the UK due to a long-running joke about the quality of its copyediting) it's good with UK and US stuff but its coverage of anything else is going to be UK or US lens views of those places, and also it very much represents the views of the sort of 60 year old centrists who vote for centre-left parties but do not necessarily understand the views of younger people, minorities, etc.



In Bulgarian local elections, despite lagging a bit in the polls nationally, the PP/DB coalition of broadly centre-liberal parties captured the mayoralties of Varna and Sofia (https://bnr.bg/en/post/101903979).

The Dutch election is looming and according to some polls a right-coalition (NSC, VVD, PVV, BBB) is one of the more popular options among Dutch voters, but whether they could actually negotiate a coalition isn't awfully clear. NSC will probably be the largest party and its leader still hasn't said if he's running to be the Prime Minister with two weeks to go before the election which is quite a take.
Title: Re: World Politics and Elections 2023
Post by: psyanojim on November 07, 2023, 05:43:39 AM
I mainly rely on Google News and make sure I'm reading articles on any issue from a cross-section of the political spectrum.

It gets quite amusing reading about the same issue through the lens of both the Guardian and the Daily Mail (or even more extreme, Morning Star and Daily Express).

I wouldn't recommend this approach for the faint of heart, however. Maybe take up meditation before attempting :D
Title: Re: World Politics and Elections 2023
Post by: Jubal on November 07, 2023, 10:39:55 PM
It gets quite amusing reading about the same issue through the lens of both the Guardian and the Daily Mail (or even more extreme, Morning Star and Daily Express).

I wouldn't recommend this approach for the faint of heart, however. Maybe take up meditation before attempting :D

Yes, I sometimes read articles from "the other side", though only if I think I can put up with the brain-rot, given there's often enough frustration reading takes from the sort of outlets that are clearly meant to be angled toward people with my set of experiences and biases.

When I was in high school and organised a small protest against county council bus service cuts in 2011 I think we got mentioned in the Morning Star's "resistance around the country" section, which was quite amusing.
Title: Re: World Politics and Elections 2023
Post by: dubsartur on November 09, 2023, 03:49:56 PM
I mainly rely on Google News and make sure I'm reading articles on any issue from a cross-section of the political spectrum.

It gets quite amusing reading about the same issue through the lens of both the Guardian and the Daily Mail (or even more extreme, Morning Star and Daily Express).

I wouldn't recommend this approach for the faint of heart, however. Maybe take up meditation before attempting :D
I think that could have been a good strategy for local news in the 20th century where the main issue was not agreeing about facts but how to interpret them and which to mention.  But it can't deal with a lack of facts in the first place.  If none of the news organizations in a country have resources to keep one monolingual person in a national capital talking to rich English / French speakers in the lobby of their hotel (the bad old system), but just  reprint press releases and social media posts, what can you get?

To pick one example, I can't remember reporting from a Canadian news organization which let you understand a war better than "there is a war in country A and countries B, C, and D are fighting."  They just don't have the expertise or the time to see which facts are important, ask the right questions, and arrange things into a story that communicates what is happening and why,  They were not able to place the convoy protests in context as part of a global far-right which wants to overthrow democracy either, although the ones which were not on the right communicated a vague sense of unease about them.  I used to read Gwynne Dyer the columnist (not reporter) that way, but he rarely communicates his sources of information and interpretation, and I don't trust him any more after some things he has said about the RU-UA war and the ethnic cleansing in Nagorno-Karabakh (the fact that he is about 80 and reduced his world travels may have something to do with that).

And this is despite 25% of the population of Canada being immigrants.

The whole concept of "news" is deeply flawed because it focuses on events over structures and processes, but news in Canada has not been able to communicate events outside the country and possibly the US for a long time.
Title: Re: World Politics and Elections 2023
Post by: psyanojim on November 09, 2023, 06:00:34 PM
On the contrary, I think we have access to more facts than ever before.

The difficulty is the signal-to-noise ratio. We also have access to more gibberish and nonsense than ever before.
Title: Re: World Politics and Elections 2023
Post by: dubsartur on November 09, 2023, 09:43:53 PM
On the contrary, I think we have access to more facts than ever before.

The difficulty is the signal-to-noise ratio. We also have access to more gibberish and nonsense than ever before.
We have access to an unlimited flood of unverifiable words and images from social media, that nobody puts their reputation behind.  Those are not the same as facts, which are the output of a process and a social system, and especially not agreed-upon facts.

All the money and attention are in communicating feelings not in establishing "what actually happened?"

(And also, like, resources in news organizations to translate and contextualize things in other languages are basically gone; we have gone from "talk to the local factory owner in the lobby of the local Hilton" to "listen to the professional propagandist's message for Anglos on social media").
Title: Re: World Politics and Elections 2023
Post by: psyanojim on November 09, 2023, 10:19:35 PM
Hence my point about 'signal-to-noise' ratio.

'Unverifiable' is not the same as 'incorrect'. There will be plenty of true, factual statements buried in the deluge of gibberish. The difficulty is in identifying them.
Title: Re: World Politics and Elections 2023
Post by: dubsartur on November 10, 2023, 12:34:49 AM
Hence my point about 'signal-to-noise' ratio.

'Unverifiable' is not the same as 'incorrect'. There will be plenty of true, factual statements buried in the deluge of gibberish. The difficulty is in identifying them.
To clarify, psyanojim, are you saying that "if news organizations in my country don't pass on facts about happenings in other countries (or build consensus about what those facts are) it does not matter because I can do my own research?"
Title: Re: World Politics and Elections 2023
Post by: psyanojim on November 10, 2023, 02:41:49 AM
To clarify, psyanojim, are you saying that "if news organizations in my country don't pass on facts about happenings in other countries (or build consensus about what those facts are) it does not matter because I can do my own research?"
Something like that, but with fewer binaries/absolutes.

Does it 'matter'? Sure. But less so than in the past, given that we live in an era where we have more access to vast quantities of global information than at any time in human history.

How we process and filter that information overload and awful signal-to-noise ratio is the critical question.

And that is also one of the key reasons that I enjoy reading a variety of biased sources. Learning about those biases themselves is fascinating information to me, even if (or especially if) they obscure the underlying story.
Title: Re: World Politics and Elections 2023
Post by: Jubal on November 10, 2023, 10:46:17 AM
I think I see both points here - I broadly both agree that it's true that people need to build up much stronger mental systems for assessing bias (and that's a critical problem in the modern world). I don't think the problem of information verifiability and the difficulty of finding trusted sources is a new problem: I think we've moved away from a relatively consensus-media period in western countries with a stronger localist element to reporting, but I think translation and good contexualisation in news media was probably always worse than we imagine and was a bit papered over by some of the consensus-building side of mid to later C20th political life in the west. So all of that means that I don't think news being strengthened can substitute from trying to strengthen everyone's skills at signal-to-noise filtering and assessing different biases. However, I do also think that news organisations are still important and that we need to rebuild a more functional news system somehow.

That's in alrge part because part of the issue of signal-to-noise is skill and whether I can work out what is factual, but part of it is also that even if I'm good at working out the most plausible narrative from the facts, even if I'm better at doing so than someone nominally professional (and on certain matters I actually might be), I also will never have the time to assess all the material on every topic that it'd be helpful for me to be informed about. The thing a trusted news organisation needs to provide for me isn't really information snippets, I can get those anywhere, it's an assessment of veracity and a system of information-trust. And I think that system, essentially news sources as a professional bit of outsourcing for filtering misinformation and overload, is something that matters and that I'd like to see strengthened.

One organisation we haven't mentioned yet is Bellingcat, and I'd sort of like to be listening to more investigative explanatory work like that on certain issues: their focus of course tends to be war/security etc, but having orgs taking similar methodologically transparent but deep investigative approaches to things like social security policy, environmental policy, or health policy would be of interest to me. And I'd generally like to see more diversity in media funding models etc as well of course.
Title: Re: World Politics and Elections 2023
Post by: dubsartur on November 10, 2023, 09:28:48 PM
To clarify, psyanojim, are you saying that "if news organizations in my country don't pass on facts about happenings in other countries (or build consensus about what those facts are) it does not matter because I can do my own research?"
Something like that, but with fewer binaries/absolutes.

Does it 'matter'? Sure. But less so than in the past, given that we live in an era where we have more access to vast quantities of global information than at any time in human history.

How we process and filter that information overload and awful signal-to-noise ratio is the critical question.
In my experience, "do your own research!" does not work.  Some of us can do it for one or two topics that we are interested in and relate to our expertise, contacts, and experience, but nobody with responsibilities can do it for every topic that might be relevant.  And even then, nobody can both attend the Tuesday night city council meeting and see if the hospital emergency room was really overflowing that same night.  So a long time ago, we started to hire teams of professionals to do the investigating and the summarizing, grouped them into a few news sources, and interacted with that for most of the topics relevant to us.  Humans are pretty good at understanding the strengths and weakneses of a handful of sources we have known for a long time.  We are not good at sorting through thousands of disconnected claims from people and sources we don't know well, and we obviously can't process things in languages we don't know or from cultures we are not familiar with.  Especially since its so easy to just plain make things up across a keyboard or in selected and edited photos and video.  It is easier emotionally, and its easier because if you control the camera angle you can control what people see. And most importantly, I do not know of any Canadian media organization whose reporters pass on facts about events in other countries which would let anyone understand them in a sophisticated way.

Every good information system which I know creates strong barriers to inserting information into the stream of information-to-consider.  They don't rely on filtering the BS for a lump of gold (or rather, any people who do that create summaries and surveys which are exepnsive to insert into the information steam but then get very close attention).  If you listen to the open-source intelligence analysts who retired recently, they explain how much time and expertise it takes to sort information out of social media.

Remember that time and concentration are the ultimate scarce resources.  Any time you say that people should pay more attention to something, you have to have a plausible answer to "what should they spend less time and attention on?" And it had better not be "they should spend more time on things I find fun and important, and less on things I find boring and unimportant."

Writing this reply cost 2 or 3 hours of concentration.

Another issue has been showed clearly by the UK-American response to COVID-19.   After the arrival of vaccines, these governments and their fellow travellers rejected the concept of public health, and focused on information control (https://johnsnowproject.org/insights/endemic-sars-cov-2-and-the-death-of-public-health/) to convince people that they were safe and the government was handling the pandemic.  And they had massive powers of information control, because who decides whether to measure the number of people who test positive, the amount of COVID in sewage, or the air quality in schools?  The government.  So they launched a concerted and mostly successful not to collect the data which could show that their vaccines-only strategy was failing.  The rest of us can use what evidence is available, but we can't argue from data that is never collected.
Title: Re: World Politics and Elections 2023
Post by: psyanojim on November 10, 2023, 11:06:31 PM
At no point anywhere did I suggest that everyone must do their own research on all topics and discard all other sources of verification. I really don't understand such a binary and extreme way of looking at things.

Writing this reply cost 2 or 3 hours of concentration.

I'm not sure how to reply to that. Writing my replies have taken me no more than 5 minutes apiece. Its no wonder we seem have such a dramatically different perspective on these things.
Title: Re: World Politics and Elections 2023
Post by: Jubal on November 18, 2023, 01:32:15 PM
The next few days have a couple of large elections: the Argentine presidency and the Dutch parliament.

Argentina I think is currently looking like it'll narrowly go to the hard-right, a man called Javier Milei who can be basically described as what would happen if a 1970s drug addict powdered the brains of Liz Truss, Trump, and Jair Bolsonaro, and snorted them all off a chainsaw whilst already high on LSD. I don't think this will go very well for Argentina, but as the country is in a wild hyperinflation mess already a lot of people are prepared to take gambles it seems.

In the Netherlands, Omtzigt has said he doesn't really want to work with either the centre left or far right, a combination that makes any coalition mathematically extremely difficult to form, so he'll probably have to walk back at least one of those after the election. His NSC are neck and neck with the VVD for first place on around 18% each, with the Lab-Grn alliance a couple of points behind, the hard-right PVV on about 13%, BBB and D66 on the five or six mark, and everyone else in the 2-4 range. Everyone else here adds up to ten or eleven parties, some of which will probably end up in government somehow.

Mathematically right now, something like VVD+NSC+BBB+CDA+CU would equal 47% for a right-but-not-that-extreme-right government, but that still leaves a gap and BBB probably can't sit along with D66 in a government given their environmental policies. I half wonder if the Socialist Party, being more socially conservative than much of the rest of the left, might be tempted into such a coalition (though they've ruled out working with the VVD (https://www.dutchnews.nl/2023/11/party-watch-sp-wants-end-to-health-care-cuts/)). It'd be very unwieldy though.

Also with the very large voter churn that gives a much much higher than usual chance that the polls will miss late movement. My expectation is that they'll be mostly right, but that the bigger lists might do marginally better than expected as undecided voters break for one of the larger options.
Title: Re: World Politics and Elections 2023
Post by: Jubal on November 23, 2023, 02:30:05 PM
Some election results!

Javier Milei is the president-elect of Argentina! I still think his policies are going to make a bad situation worse, but 55% of Argentines disagree with me. However, Milei only has about 38 seats of the 257 in Parliament: he can get things through as long as the centre-right Juntos por el Cambio votes with him (they have a bit under a hundred seats now, so enough for ca 130 combined), but what are they prepared (or not) to sign off on? And those parties put together don't add up to a Senate majority. So that's going to be a mess.

Speaking of messes, the hard right PVV are now the largest party in the Dutch parliament, and we await negotiations to see exactly how the new government will collapse. It's totally unclear who can form one right now, a right-wing coalition led by the PVV is very much on the table but both the VVD and NSC would have to be in it and both are clearly wary (indeed the NSC ruled it out before the election but we'll see what that translates to now). If a PVV led VVD backed government functions at all it could also end up being a model for e.g. Austria next year where the equivalent FPO-OVP option might happen. In a sense it ought to be easy for the PVV to govern, if they just jettison some of the more nuts stuff and get on with vaguely boring government bits and being nasty to migrants in whatever ways their coalition partners will sign off on... but I'm not sure they're competent enough to do that.

The tricky challenge for the VVD and NSC in particular, really, is to work out how to make Wilders' failure a matter of his fault not looking like their stitch-up.
Title: Re: World Politics and Elections 2023
Post by: dubsartur on November 30, 2023, 10:10:06 PM
At no point anywhere did I suggest that everyone must do their own research on all topics and discard all other sources of verification. I really don't understand such a binary and extreme way of looking at things.
For my own part I have trouble associating "binary" or "extreme" with any of my opinions.  But the collapse of trusted networks of synthesis and verification is something I have been thinking hard about for ten years or so.  I still don't understand what your preferred solution is.

The fact that the US government is now accusing the Indian government of plotting assassinations on US and Canadian soil is a big deal. Edit: an Indian citizen in Czechia was arrested for extradition and prosecution in the USA https://www.justice.gov/usao-sdny/pr/us-attorney-announces-charges-connection-foiled-plot-assassinate-us-citizen-new-york
Title: Re: World Politics and Elections 2023
Post by: Jubal on November 30, 2023, 10:59:14 PM
The Dutch do not look terribly like forming a coalition right now - the VVD would give confidence & supply but don't want to be in the cabinet, the NSC don't even want to give confidence & supply until there is some clarification over what's going on.

I worry that this will drive more voters to the PVV in the short term or harden their vote: if there's a feeling that "old-school" politicians haven't given them enough chance to form a coalition then that might give them a certain anti-politics edge. It might also push other voters away from the right if there's a feeling that the right wing are too divided to govern without some kind of centre-left anchor, however.

Milei's Argentina has announced that in contrast to the previous government's policy it won't be joining the BRICS group of major developing economies.
Title: Re: World Politics and Elections 2023
Post by: dubsartur on December 01, 2023, 07:13:44 AM
Milei's Argentina has announced that in contrast to the previous government's policy it won't be joining the BRICS group of major developing economies.
It fascinates me that the "Brazil Russia India and China"-s became BRICS and added South Africa, then became a formal group as opposed to an investor's shorthand for "large low-income countries with high economic growth."  People are strange.  Of course Russia never kept up the "growth" part and Brazil has difficulties too.  Per capita, Argentina was one of the richest countries in the world in 1910 but it fell behind.
Title: Re: World Politics and Elections 2023
Post by: dubsartur on December 13, 2023, 06:13:11 AM
Wikipedia has what seems like a good article on the dispute between Guayana and Venuzuela about the Esequiba or Essequeba region.  When Guiana became independent in 1966, the UK, Guiana, and Venuzuela signed a treaty (https://treaties.un.org/doc/Publication/UNTS/Volume%20561/volume-561-I-8192-English.pdf) that they should really settle who owned this territory someday.  Nobody ever seems to have asked the indigenous people.  The excuse for the current crisis is that Guyana sold Exxon rights to drill for offshore oil.  I don't know anywhere with an article which is less prone to vandalism by nationalists.

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Guayana_Esequiba
Title: Re: World Politics and Elections 2023
Post by: Jubal on December 16, 2023, 11:19:33 PM
Yeah, Wikipedia's "it should sound neutral" is a really awkward way to try and produce neutrality but I'm not sure that the result is always vastly worse than a lot of actual newsrooms come up with and Wiki often provides more detail. Which is probably more a comment on how bad everything else is, but it's grimly interesting in any case.