Exilian

Egypt, Tunisia, Libya... who's next?

What do y'all think of the prospects of a more democratic Islamic world?

According to Ned O'Keefe, a crazy Cork politician, Ireland could be next. :P

But seriously, well, aside from the successful oustings in Tunisia and Egypt, there have been other governmental changes for the better in countries like Jordan. The whole of the region is affected in some way, and there's no telling when this will die down.

I found the colour-coded map from Wikipedia quite interetsing. It also shows the vast area covered by MENA states, which count for something like 6% of the world population.

(http://upload.wikimedia.org/wikipedia/commons/thumb/6/6c/2010-2011_Middle_East_and_North_Africa_protests.svg/790px-2010-2011_Middle_East_and_North_Africa_protests.svg.png)

One thing that is also noticable is the unprecented nature of the ripples. Waves of uprising have been feared throughout history, from the French Revolution to Communism, and have never quite lived up to the expected hype. This wave of protests is unprecedented, and it's notable that they are also democratic. They are not about killing kings and tzars, or changing the shape of society, they are about simple freedom and a fair consitution. The numbers in Egypt were comparable to Russia in 1917 or Iran in 1979, but peaceful and non-violent.

I think this is a good thing. This will change the face of the Islamic world forever (for better or worse), but I think that however the dust settles, a powerful message has been sent. A very meaningul phrase that was spoken on Al Jazeera English was "Democracy is in the eye of the beholder." I heard that and felt truer words were never spoken. We in Europe or America may find that the end results of the changes there are not to our liking, but democracy is about self-determination, letting the people of a nation choose who they wish to lead them. It is not about who the leaders of other countries think should be in charge.

I wonder if the communists would have achieved more of a domino effect in 1917 if they had the internet...

What are the colours on the map, Andalus?

EDIT: Found 'em. For those who don't know, green=fine, yellow = minor protests, orange = major protests, bright red = reform, dark red = REVOLUSHUN!

Whoops, yeah, forget to include the colour key. :$

QuoteI wonder if the communists would have achieved more of a domino effect in 1917 if they had the internet...

A valid ponderance. Although the time when the domino effect was more feared was after WW2 when the USSR was hugely powerful, China had fallen to the red flag, and colonial rule was collapsing to form young fragile states. Internet point still stands, though. Same again with Iran's Islamic Revolution that was as feared by the Russians as Communism by the Americans. The internet is a powerful, borderless tool for spreading flames. This borderless community that the internet creates is a key part of why the world is changing in this way.

Libya Latest (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-middle-east-12556005)

This is currently Libya's situation. The demonstrators have finally gained control for the East and now they are fighting Gaddafi and his few, but dangerous loyal supporters in the West. Tripoli is looking exceedingly dangerous and most of the massacre has happened there. It says 300 are dead but I would have thought, as do many others, that that figure is now way out of what the actual figure is. The only problem is is that Gaddafi has already said in an hour long speech, that he will try to hold on to power. He has vowed to "crush the revolt and die as a martyr".
Stubborn bugga is all I can say. Soon though, he shall be dead. The main symbol for this demonstration is the Pre-Gaddafi Libyan flag.

I wonder though, how long will this go on for.

And on another slightly rtelated note, how long does it take to get some aeroplanes from Britain to Libya? At the moment, for us it seems to be taking a couple of months!..... Most countries have either already sent planes over and are either home or in the air on the way home, while other countires have used their militray planes. Ours haven't even got off the ground yet! So darn embarrassing....

From Gadaffi tonight;
"There are people who've been in power longer than me - like Queen Elizabeth of Britain. And nothing's happened to her."

Oil: $96.70/barrel. Running cost of HMS Cumberland:

Quote from: "Jubal"From Gadaffi tonight;
"There are people who've been in power longer than me - like Queen Elizabeth of Britain. And nothing's happened to her."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0gqxqOSSw0 (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0gqxqOSSw0)

Seth Rogen's line comes directly to mind.

Did you notice the map has changed?

Mubarak down, Gaddafi next.

Why does RTW come to my mind when talking about Lybians and casualty numbers?

Jokes aside, I wish I could get better coverage of this. TV stations think that reality shows are faaaar more interesting than news. Even the news is mostly about that. I hate being proactive :P

I thought Mubarak had stepped down a long time ago, around the beginning of February

Yeah, Mubarak's long gone, as was that Tunisian guy who ran away at the start of it all.

The question is really how long Gadaffi can hold out - he may not have much time. Unless he can take the rebels out fast his lack of resources and international support will slowly but surely push the tide against him. Slowly, surely, and sadly bloodily, that is.

I still think it's cool that the map is updating itself. 8D

I cannot believe someone like Gaddafi is still in power. For instance, you Britons could simply send in an assassin (Jamus Bondus) and execute him at any time; the success rate has to be 95% at least.

Libya seems to be descending into a very fast-moving civil war; the main question is whether Gadaffi can actually secure his base in the West before the rebels manage to take Sirte and the vital oilfields.

If I were Gadaffi, I have to say that I'd be working a damn sight harder than I am now on this. He's keeping a lot of troops in reserve, when in fact strategically his only hope lies in speed. His Khamis brigade, apparently capable of creating a football-pitch sized firestorm in a very short space of time with their heavy armaments, is being kept back in Tripoli when really he can't win without using every bit of that firepower to smash the rebels aside. Instead he's relying on far less well equipped regulars and mercenaries who simply won't be able to displace the rebels before the international embargos on money and supplies begin to turn the tide in their favour decisively.

Ras Lanuf is down, Gadaffi seems to be utilising much more of his firepower now.  :-/

Yeah, this whole Libya thing is not going to end well. At all. For anybody.

I understand why Gaddafi is using more firepower, since he has had power and will do all he can to keep it. However he should have just accepted defeat and backed down, as Mubarak did. There is no way he could do that now, and not be the subject of more ridicule than he already is, and/or not be charged with crimes against humanity.

Incidentally, Gaddafi seems to be utilising a method of controlling public order that works fantastically in RTW. That is, let a city revolt, then retake it and exterminate the rebellious people...

And with Japan in the ***t, media attention has diverted from Libya. You're a lucky man, Gaddafi.

The thing is, you can't do guerilla wars in Libya. It's a flat bloody desert, there's nowhere to hide.

That said, statistic from the BBC: the average civil war between 1960 and 1999 lasted seven years.

This hasn't gone a month yet.

Lybia is a particulary interesting occasion. Its dictator claims to have created a Socialistic Muslim State. Thus preaces his Green Book.

According to what I heard at the news today, he is planning an attack to Bengazi [the anti-regimental capital] and therefore we will surely have many dead people.

From a philosopher's point of view, I tell you this: I am truly on a delema. Is any foreign military campaign a true aid for the anti-regimental forces? or is it a blow to the prestige of the more or less REAL, social /civil rebelion? To this I anwser the second is correct.

On the other hand. Has a dictator or any other Governour any power to genocide his own subjects? To this I anwser no, especially when they fight withought balance of powers. Gadafi has more money and equipment, and therefore his is but a slaughterer of inocents.

So what should be done? Maybe we need to provide each side with benefits and provisions. Gadafi should be encouraged to give up all his prerogatives and powers and proceed to the civil request for stable Democratic change and constitutional freedom. The thus called ''Rebels'' [even if Gaddafi is the one and only rebel, since he rebelled against the trust put in him by his society the previous years] should demand no charges against Gadafi, so that he hand over the Power peacefully and easily, will also be deprived of all illegal property he gathered in the name of his people and in that way we will both have democracy and they regiments supporters will be at peace. Gadafi will be more or less judged by history, and Let me tell you he will be condemned to the fate of Tyrrants; which is obsurity and decay.

If the dictator tries to still hold the power he must be jugded and be found guilty of crimes against his people, by their legaly apointed judges. They always have a right to destroy him, the man who threatens them with destuction.

Thus Spoke Dimos. Thanks

The fact is that with Gadaffi's military assets intervention will be needed if he is to be defeated. There's no real question of that. Moreover, he won't go peacefully. We are not, alas, dealing with a sane man here.

The Bahraini police have been shooting civilians now. Not only that. They've been doing it out of AMBULANCES. Makes me sick. The word "genocide" is on the lips of quite a lot of Bahrainis now, particularly with a thousand Saudi troops occupying the country.

It's not long 'til the critical UN vote on a No Fly Zone, as well.

My suspicion is that if it succeeds it will be more than a NFZ in practice. The west won't be able to complete their remit of "protecting Libyan civilians" by just flying over on occasion. Gadaffi WILL shoot at them, they WILL have to take out his air defences. I suspect they'll also end up running strikes on his tank corps as well. It looks a bit grim, but I guess one thing to remember is that actually places like Ras Lanuf, Brega, Zawiya, etc, are really quite small. Zawiya is the largest place Gadaffi has retaken successfully (after several days of very bloody fighting), and it's smaller than my local city of Norwich. Brega, which took about two days to fall, is about the size of my local town of Diss. Benghazi has over a million people, on the other hand - taking it would be a vastly, vastly larger enterprise than anything Gadaffi's troops have managed so far.

Why the hell no one has sent in Bond to eliminate Gaddafi is beyond me. This isn't Star Trek, yet; there is no prime directive that prohibits the influencing of other cultures, even for an extremely good reason. We are all on this planet together.

I agree. I think security services need to be a lot more prepared to stick their neck out, playing by the book isn't worth it if it means vastly more civilian loss of life.

Gadaffi's moving towards Benghazi fast. This is NOT good. Tanks reported entering Misurata.

He wants this war over now.

Looks like trouble is going to go down then.

Quote from: "BBC"US President Barack Obama has said Libyan leader Colonel Muammar Gaddafi must obey the UN's demands or face military action.

But it's fairly hard to do airstrikes at night. Unless the west move VERY fast, there might not be many rebels left to protect.

The E Team!

How 'bout it - I have the equipment to arm all our active members, so let's go in and take out Godamnafi!  B)

I'll carry a gun, but I'm taking my sledgehammer too. Just in case. In fact, I'll deal with hand weaponry, I have a armadilloload of scythes, sledgehammers, a pitchfork or two... We can take 'em.  :P

Today is the reckoning.

It twas funny when the rebels gunned the plane out of the sky, watched that Live too, darn good shot.
I now think that It is time for the World to take the fight to him.
Release the Planes!

Apparently there's some talk that it might've been a rebel plane that Gadaffi's guys hit, but nevertheless. ***t is definitely hitting the fan.

Military action by the rest of the world was needed yesterday. By yesterday I mean weeks ago.

Yesterday now means week ago  :blink:   :o

I should catch up with the times  :D

Well, the French are blowing things up as of now.

It's a combined effort; someone has to be there to prevent the French from surrendering. :P

Is that trope really common in the US too, or have you been talking to us English folk too much?

Quite common here too.

But... is it JUST for foreign countries to enter a country under rebelion? Bahrein and Lybia in that case?

I think it is under certain conditions, as follows (this is a simplification, but some simplification is needed);

1 - That the side we're fighting on has majority support. Given that at his low point Gadaffi only really had his hometown of Sirte and central Tripoli under his control, in a country where he's controlled the media for forty years, we can safely say that his support is really very limited.
2 - That we were asked to go in. The rebels explicitly asked for the airstrikes that have now been implemented.
3 - That we make every effort to minimise civilian casualties, do not attack targets that do not pose a threat, and concentrate on it as a purely military operation.
4 - That international law expressly allows the action to take place.

To my mind, as the rebels express the vast majority (anti-Gadaffi) view, I consider them a more legitimate authority than Gadaffi for Libya. Given that, plus the use of unprincipled and deadly assaults by Gadaffi's forces, plus a United Nations resolution being passed which essentially urges UN members to protect Libyan civilians, I think that we have every right to comply with their request for assistance.

Bahrain is different. The government only has minority support, the protesters are unarmed and being suppressed by police & troops. The Saudis do not have a right to enter in that case, because whilst part 2 was fulfilled part 1 most certainly wasn't and nor was 3. Let alone 4. Those are the critical differences between the two operations.

I wish this would be talked more often in the news at my country... all they care of is whatever load of s*** happens in the whereabouts and in the local media (a model gets new implants! 30 minutes coverage of that)

Quote from: "debux"a model gets new implants!

Really? Where!? I want to hear about that!

See it too.  :P

Much back & forth on the ground in Libya.

On the minus; Brega, Ras Lanuf, Ughayla lost today, Gadaffi's forces seem to be pushing some seriously uncoordinated rebels back.
On the plus; Libya's foreign minister has seen the writing on the wall and legged it to dear ol Blighty, we've kicked out some Pro-Gadaffi folks from the embassy.

Also, eyes are now turning to Syria, despite cabinet resignations there seems to be no sense of concessions. President Assad probably isn't unpopular enough to go - yet - but if his hand is forced and too many protesters get shot that may tip the balance towards rebellion.

(Worth noting that it looks like Kuwait's cabinet may resign soon).

I think I might buy it than. I always needed a cabinet. :P

The rebels actually took a border town from Gadaffi's forces! Omigosh!

Yay for Brigands! I knew those peasants could do something one day

That's probably cuz the game (the UN) spawned them with full upgrades.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13166441 (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-africa-13166441)

And here come the robot warriors...

Yes, here they come.

Where do you get those images CG :D