Exilian

Buckle up and get ready, chaps; it's going to be a close one.

CURRENT POLLS (Via UKPR)
Panelbase (online) 49%
ICM (phone) 49%
TNS (face to face) 49%
YouGov (online) 48%
ICM (online) 48%
Opinium (online) 48%
Survation (online) 48%
Survation (phone) 46%

All are %s of Yes support.

So a tiny No lead seems to be the consistent picture at the moment...

You knew this would happen:

we should have a exilian poll on it!

Also it seems a tad ridiculous that Scotland's independence could be decided by such a small difference, it could come down to but a few hundred votes 

Should've been more like a 60% or 2/3 threshold for a constitutional change of this magnitude I think, especially since we didn't get a vote south of the border.

Poll is up :)

At least they have the option to simply vote themselves out.

(http://media.philly.com/images/600*450/090814-Simpsons-scotland.jpg)

Also RE the braveheart speech, John Oliver hit that nail on the head: "Because nothing screams 'Scottish Freedom' like a millionaire Australian anti-Semite on horseback..."

Alba gu bràth!

Our poll won't be accurate since CC would be our only native Scot, unless I'm mistaken?

Yeah, it's our opinion rather than Scotland's :P

I think Pentagathus probably gets a vote, though, as he's studying in Aberdeen (voting for this is based on residency not on birthplace).

Basically I'm just sick of the SNP lying their asses off and knowing that by the time the UK govt actually calls their bluff it could be too late.

Down the British!

The Scots ARE British.  :P

Not after tomorrow. :)

No, they'll at most leave the United Kingdom - Scotland can't leave the British Isles short of a lot of complex engineering.  :P

They only need state that they no longer consider themselves British and prefer to be called Scots and only Scots.

(http://2.bp.blogspot.com/-J5ZyojqHEP0/Uaogj1o9d1I/AAAAAAAAHCo/5AHLfn3faIc/s320/numberthree.jpg)

I'm currently canvassing for the "Meh" campaign. And by canvassing I mean sitting here doing roughly portugal all and not worrying either way.
I don't know what to make of the polls, it seems to me that nationalists are much more likely to vote in them than people who will be voting no for the safe bet.
I'd laugh my tits off if shetland opt out of an independent scotland.

Quote from: Jubal on September 17, 2014, 03:14:54 PM
Yeah, it's our opinion rather than Scotland's :P

But most of you are biased. :P

Quote from: comrade_general on September 17, 2014, 06:35:47 PM
But most of you are biased. :P

And the Scots aren't?  :P
The sense I have (rightly or wrongly) is that most people in England don't have a strong opinion either way. My own view is that if the Scots want independence from the UK, they're welcome to have it, but that they will lose more than they gain. The SNP seems to have blithely ignored many of the obvious problems (the currency situation and EU membership for starters), and, alas, the 'No' campaign does not seem to have challenged them effectively.

Quote from: Jubal on September 16, 2014, 11:18:29 PM
Buckle up and get ready, chaps; it's going to be a close one. ...
So a tiny No lead seems to be the consistent picture at the moment...

There's a BBC News article (http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/uk-scotland-scotland-politics-29223389) on the reliability of the opinion polls. There appear to be various factors that could affect the numbers either way, and the answer seems to be that we really don't know at all...

Quote from: Pentagathus on September 17, 2014, 05:30:17 PM
I'd laugh my tits off if shetland opt out of an independent scotland.

Indeed - taking a huge slice of the oilfields that the SNP's hopes are so pinned on. Though I can imagine that the Shetlanders might then vote to join Norway rather than the remainder of the UK!

That's why a "strictly Exilian" vote doesn't work because we don't have any Scots to override all your biased votes. :P

The BBC and media have a strong interest in telling people that the opinion polls don't tell us anything, as it allows them to impose hype without inconveniences like reality getting in the way :P

Essentially the question now psephologically is this: is there a systematic error in the polls? There are a few theoretical sources for such an error:
- Dropouts. Essentially, people on the margins of society, who don't have internet access or a landline or are doing irregular work, are harder to reach. If these people all swing heavily in one way (say Yes, as an anti-establishment vote) and can actually be got to the polls they could hoodwink the pollsters as an invisible group.
- "Shy Noes/Enthused Yesses" it may be that people who feel they're in a historic movement are more likely to agree to answer a phonecall from a pollster. This is reduced in election polling by weighting to past GE vote, but that won't work so well in a referendum. This is more likely to boost No than Yes, as the latter has been displayed as having more momentum.
- Don't Knows & late swing. The referendum is still just close enough that the "Don't Know" bloc could swing it. If all these go one way or the other it will swing the result. But as to which way they might swing we can't tell, and it would take them having a very different uniform swing to the rest of the voters for it to make a huge difference.

All in all, you'd have to bet with the polls, No should win by a narrow margin given the consistency of the results.

---

On to the non-psephological bits.

Glaurung is very right on the EU and Currency, the SNP seem to have assumed that the world will work exactly as they think it ought to. There is simply no incentive for a UK government to be civil post-independence as there will be no Scots UK voters for them to appeal to. Scotland should expect a very rough ride from the UK on currency, probably the UK wouldn't agree to it short of (ironically) being able to impose budget controls on Holyrood. As for the EU, Spain has a massive incentive to veto entry even if the UK could be persuaded. And they'd certainly not be able to get other things they want out of it, such as an exemption to the Uni funding rules (further irony, an independent Scotland might be cheaper for English students than it currently is).

I just suspect that when and if the world starts calling Salmond's bluffs after a Yes win it will harden both the SNP and anti-independence camps into a "the world is out to get us" and a "we told you so" lobby, creating really quite nasty divides in Scots society, as well as souring relations with England very badly indeed for the foreseeable future. A lot of the SNP reassurances are simply thin air, and I worry about how many Scots seem prepared to assume it'll all be OK when it happens.

The Orkneys and maybe Shetlands are more inclined to be Norwegian than Scottish or so I hear, and claim the oil around the area is theirs. Actually I believe the islands might even be 'on loan' to Scotland by the Norwegian crown or something. But don't quote me on that. I hope it's true tbh. Also I want Scotland to gain independence so I can watch them riot and destroy their country before selling it and thus losing the independence they wanted. On this occasion I really do just want to watch the world (ok, scotland) burn.

I also think we should be able to vote them out.

And if they do go, they can take Corby with them.

EDIT: I reckon it'll be 'No' by more of a margin than the polls indicate as yes voters will chicken out. But I really hope I'm wrong.

Regardless of the result, I think it's a very positive sign that the voter turnout has been so high - well over 80% in areas reported so far by the BBC. This compares with 50-70% for general elections, and often 30-40% for local council elections.

Note for Australians and others: the UK does not have compulsory voting, so turnout (the proportion of electors voting) can be a significant factor in elections here.

Turnout is often still a factor in Australia, mind, in close races.

Anyway, looks like my country still exists :) Only four of 24 regions going Yes so far, their only big prize Glasgow and the margin there wasn't vast.

We're still a United Kingdom!

Damn it, I guess I'll have to wait for another opportunity for fire and brimstone.

Quote from: Colossus on September 19, 2014, 09:33:47 AM
Damn it, I guess I'll have to wait for another opportunity for fire and brimstone.

Try Iceland at the moment: the volcano is still erupting, and you can have all the fire and brimstone (well, sulphur dioxide) you want. If it really gets going, we'll have the brimstone here anyway :(

Back on topic, I find I'm glad Scotland will remain in the United Kingdom, even if I can't readily identify the reasons. I'm looking forward to the new constitutional settlement we're going to get, and (at last) an answer to the "West Lothian" question.

:'(

(http://wallpoper.com/images/00/45/04/83/grunge-flag-of-the-united-kingdom--union-jack_00450483.jpg)

Quote from: comrade_general on September 19, 2014, 10:08:25 AM
:'(

Why? Did you want Scottish independence?

Although we are all close friends now, as an American I must admit I would enjoy to see your empire continue to fall apart. ;D Also freedom.

Scotland is no less "free" (whatever that means) than a US state, really, and it's going to become more so in the near future. If you believe in Scottish independence because freedom, by implication that would also mean believing in splitting up the USA into 50 odd countries :P

I should also point out that it's not an Imperial possession unlike Ireland or even Wales, the Scots first took our monarchy over then united with us because they needed us to bail out their failed colonial venture.

(http://media.tumblr.com/3011c20a5ace91d6d96840d647f5ed9f/tumblr_inline_mszc1vy4tG1qz4rgp.jpg)

Quote from: Glaurung on September 19, 2014, 09:52:11 AM
I'm looking forward to the new constitutional settlement we're going to get, and (at last) an answer to the "West Lothian" question.

I suspect it's going to get very politiky very quickly. We're already seeing Labour trying to row back from what they promised during the election, and Conservative backbenchers like Owen Patterson getting all fired up about the latest soundbyte 'english votes for english laws'.

Trouble is, with the Barnett formula and such in place, isn't there an argument that spending policy DOES affect the Scots, albeit indirectly.

Unfortunately Glaurung, natural disasters usually cause solidarity among humans. I'd want the anarchy, aggression and hatred that comes from the denial over the refusal to take responsibility for causing your own country to collapse.

Plus I like the right to self determination and all that.

Yes, English spending does affect the Scots.

A likely solution might be that how things are spent is devolved to the English MPs - but the levels of spending would be a budget for the overall Parliament.

A good read, and matches my thoughts quite well on events past and present:

http://www.fee.org/the_freeman/detail/the-liberty-to-leave