Exilian

Art, Writing, and Learning: The Clerisy Quarter => Discussion and Debate - The Philosopher's Plaza => Topic started by: comrade_general on November 24, 2015, 02:00:41 PM

Title: Russia in the Middle East
Post by: comrade_general on November 24, 2015, 02:00:41 PM
http://www.dailymail.co.uk/news/article-3331558/Turkey-shoots-fighter-jet-Syrian-border-Local-media-footage-flaming-plane-crashing-trees.html

Let Russia carve up ISIS-ally-Turkey for dinner.
Title: Re: Russia in the Middle East
Post by: Clockwork on November 24, 2015, 02:55:12 PM
Rus gon fuk dem up.
Title: Re: Russia in the Middle East
Post by: Jubal on November 24, 2015, 03:47:04 PM
The Turkish government certainly aren't good guys, but I'm pretty sure I don't think the Russians are either, so I hope this won't lead to anything escalating too much. It doesn't look like Russia are actually going to do anything much, anyhow, possibly cut off travel visas or something but Putin seems to be in "not losing face" mode not "deliver ultimatum" mode.
Title: Re: Russia in the Middle East
Post by: comrade_general on November 24, 2015, 03:52:49 PM
I'd def ally with the Soviets though.
Title: Re: Russia in the Middle East
Post by: Jubal on November 24, 2015, 04:13:14 PM
Well, that at least can't harm anyone too much given the USSR ceased existing about a quarter of a century ago now...  :P
Title: Re: Russia in the Middle East
Post by: comrade_general on November 24, 2015, 04:18:06 PM
Oh did it now? Tell that to Putin.
Title: Re: Russia in the Middle East
Post by: Jubal on November 24, 2015, 04:27:02 PM
I think there are differences between Putin's new Russia and the USSR, even if geopolitically they're similar the underlying rationale is very different. More "god and the motherland", less "workers of the world unite", and so on. Not to mention that modern Russia is much less well resourced and less capable of heavy-duty power projection than the USSR was at its height, the geopolitical buffer zone has gone from "everything in eastern Europe" to "we're playing havoc with like 100 miles of Ukranian border territory". No soviet would have been seen dead claiming to be the heir to Byzantium, but that's pretty core to Putin's ideology. I guess it has impacts, too; Putin makes claims around protecting Russian interests, not the interests of a global class, so beyond the Russian-speaking world he has less ideological pretext for foreign wars (which of course suits him fine, given he's mainly interested in being dictator/pseudo-Emperor of Russia and keeping a grip on power there).
Title: Re: Russia in the Middle East
Post by: comrade_general on November 24, 2015, 04:46:23 PM
Still Soviets.
Title: Re: Russia in the Middle East
Post by: Glaurung on November 24, 2015, 05:57:25 PM
Quote from: comrade_general on November 24, 2015, 02:00:41 PM
Let Russia carve up ISIS-ally-Turkey for dinner.
I think I must be missing something: Turkey is vehemently opposed to IS.
Title: Re: Russia in the Middle East
Post by: Jubal on November 24, 2015, 06:10:20 PM
There have been allegations that Turkey hasn't been pulling its weight, especially with issues around them refusing access to their territory (for the reasons one would expect) to Kurdish militias, and not doing enough to cut off IS supply lines that have often involved smuggling people and goods through Turkey. I think some commentators also suspect that Turkey is so opposed to Assad that they'd rather keep him off-balance even if that means not destroying IS as efficiently as it could.

I think calling them an IS ally is stretching it, but it would be reasonable to say that they don't have the rapid defeat of IS as their sole primary goal in the way that it seems to be becoming the main goal of many of their NATO allies.
Title: Re: Russia in the Middle East
Post by: Glaurung on November 24, 2015, 07:08:12 PM
OK, I stand corrected. Certainly I can see that it gives Erdogan some leverage to have IS contained but active beyond the Turkish border. On the other hand the Turkish government takes the country's territorial integrity very seriously , so they would stamp very hard on any IS movement across the border, and I'm fairly sure there are major religious differences between IS and the majority Turkish population as well. And they are (apparently) fed up with hosting over a million refugees.
Title: Re: Russia in the Middle East
Post by: Jubal on November 24, 2015, 07:37:02 PM
Also true - IS certainly would love to have the strength to take on Turkey, given that they want to conquer Constantinople (this is apparently a necessary step in causing the apocalypse, along with defeating the armies of Rome, which they may have even more difficulty with).
Title: Re: Russia in the Middle East
Post by: comrade_general on November 24, 2015, 08:26:18 PM
Putin says that Turkey is buying oil from ISIS.
Title: Re: Russia in the Middle East
Post by: Clockwork on November 24, 2015, 09:55:27 PM
Putin is the only political player with backbone. He might actually back up kicking the bejesus out of people.
Title: Re: Russia in the Middle East
Post by: Glaurung on November 24, 2015, 11:03:42 PM
Quote from: comrade_general on November 24, 2015, 08:26:18 PM
Putin says that Turkey is buying oil from ISIS.
I wouldn't regard Putin as a reliable source, unfortunately.
Title: Re: Russia in the Middle East
Post by: Glaurung on November 24, 2015, 11:10:52 PM
Quote from: Colossus on November 24, 2015, 09:55:27 PM
Putin is the only political player with backbone. He might actually back up kicking the bejesus out of people.
Well, he's evidently happy to conduct bombing raids to assist his friend Assad. After the Soviet experience in Afghanistan, I suspect he'll be much more reluctant to commit ground forces in Syria. Nor, I suspect, is he interested in the long-term commitment to nation-building, whose necessity is demonstrated by the last 12 years' unhappy history, and in which the continued presence of Assad would be a major obstacle.
Title: Re: Russia in the Middle East
Post by: comrade_general on November 24, 2015, 11:15:04 PM
I don't keep up on everything Putin says, but to date I don't think I've ever heard him say anything that didn't make sense. Can't say that about any of our politicians

Syria is different from Afghanistan. We were supporting the Mujahideen (some thanks we got from that) much like CCCP supported Vietnam et al. In Syria we are both against ISIS.
Title: Re: Russia in the Middle East
Post by: Clockwork on November 25, 2015, 11:19:05 AM
Russia is fighting ISIS in Syria, same as Assad, but it's suspicious that they're allies in that? It's not like they're exchanging xmas cards they're killing terrorists.
Title: Re: Russia in the Middle East
Post by: Glaurung on November 25, 2015, 01:34:55 PM
Putin is backing Assad exclusively, as far as I know. IS are presumably the principal target, but I suspect that they are not the only one. I expect that "we" (the West / NATO etc.) would probably prefer to back only the more moderate rebels, who are fighting against both Assad and IS, but we'll almost certainly have to accept Assad anyway as the only hope of returning Syria to some sort of stability.
Title: Re: Russia in the Middle East
Post by: comrade_general on November 25, 2015, 01:46:10 PM
Leave Assad there. If removed someone would need to stay there for many years otherwise ISIS takes control. We learned that with Iraq. W warned that it would happen:
Title: Re: Russia in the Middle East
Post by: Pentagathus on November 25, 2015, 05:14:35 PM
 ^-^Have seen some highly humorous memes about this, will try to post them at some point.
Otherwise I'm pretty meh about the whole thing, we didn't do enough (ie we did portugal all) to aid moderate rebels in removing Assad when it co ave helped avoid destabilising the region, I really doubt we're going to risk conflict with Russia now to get rid of him.
Title: Re: Russia in the Middle East
Post by: Clockwork on November 26, 2015, 04:00:33 PM
https://www.facebook.com/PakaluPapitoOfficial/photos/a.1445443269100042.1073741828.1435342963443406/1548350015476033/?type=3
Title: Re: Russia in the Middle East
Post by: comrade_general on November 26, 2015, 05:08:40 PM
That is the gist of it. :)
Title: Re: Russia in the Middle East
Post by: Jubal on November 28, 2015, 12:06:28 PM
http://motherboard.vice.com/read/belgian-physicists-calculate-that-everyone-is-lying-about-the-downed-russian-jet?utm_source=vicenewsfb

And in news that should probably be a surprise to nobody, it looks like neither side is actually telling the truth about the jet incident.
Title: Re: Russia in the Middle East
Post by: comrade_general on November 28, 2015, 01:54:44 PM
Belgians? Aren't they always high on waffles or something? :)
Title: Re: Russia in the Middle East
Post by: Jubal on November 28, 2015, 02:24:42 PM
I will admit to not having checked their numbers - but yes, Belgium is good at waffles and chocolate. And if recent events are a guide, less so at anti-terrorism policing...