We're back, the year is a clusterfumble already, here goes.
Some previews of the year...
The most significant global elections this year are, I think, likely to be the following:
- In Hungary, Viktor Orban faces his harshest political test yet: if he wins, the EU will probably have to conclude that there's no shifting him short of kicking the country out somehow, but if he loses it'll mean Putinist right-isolationism suddenly loses its biggest eastern European anchor at the very moment when it seems poised for big western European gains in 2027
- In Brazil, the question is whether Lula can hold off the resurgent far right-wing and retain control. At some point, the sharp polarisation in the country might collapse and allow centrists through, but right now it doesn't show much sign of subsiding.
- In the USA, the midterms will probably stall out the Republican legislative agenda unless Trump really gear-shifts to heightened authoritarianism in the coming months. If Trump's popularity really crashes through the floor then there are more potential downsides for him in the form of increased investigations.
- The elections in Israel could be the last ditch attempt for Netanyahu to save his career and stay out of jail - again, potentially this is a crossroads, because I think Netanyahu with another term will manage to judicially/legally secure his position against all the corruption stuff. Excepting two pollsters that consistently give much higher Likud scores than everyone else, most polling suggests that the Israeli Arab parties are likely to hold the balance of power (which I think makes Netanyahu toast if it happens). Sadly all of this is not especially likely to help the Palestinians who have been the most significant victims of Netanyahu's political maneuvering, given that the opposition bloc is currently being very much led by hard-right Naftali Bennett's list.
Other elections of note:
- Sweden looks poised to shift back left: the major right-wing parties are doing similarly to the last election, but the two smaller moderate parties in the "Tido" right-wing bloc, the Liberals and Christian Democrats, have lost support and might both fall out of parliament.
- In Slovenia, the green-liberal leadership of Robert Golob is in trouble, and he's seriously lagging behind the hard right in the polls. He's still a solid second, though, and neither of those two parties will form a government alone. The very large number of other parties and 4% threshold might create a real mess, with only the Social Democrats on 6-8% completely reliably reaching the four percent margin. The Democrats, a centre-right anti-corruption party, Christian Democratic N.Si, anti-vax Resni.ca, extreme right SNS, and a left-green combination list are all in with a shot at the threshold, but it's unlikely all of those will get represented.
- In Nepal, we'll find out what the new political order looks like after last year's Gen Z fuelled revolution. I don't think anyone's done any polling, the old political parties are mostly socialist and communist variants as far as I can tell but the sorts of figures the protestors wanted in charge may not be running in them. We'll find out!
- In Armenia, my suspicion is that the conservative right will once again fail to actually unseat Pashinyan's centrist government. Pashinyan is not popular by any stretch of the imagination, but his opponents don't really have a good geopolitical answer that isn't "fight wars we'll obviously lose" or "cuddle up to Russia at a time when Russia doesn't have the resources to support Armenia". I suspect a competitive centre option could unseat Pashinyan, but one doesn't seem to be emerging right now.
- In New Zealand it might be a pretty tight race between the right and left blocs, the Labor party is leading several recent polls but the Maori party is doing quite badly which may mean they don't get the allies they need to govern.
- The Danish experiment with a centre government is likely to end as all the centre parties in it have lost support since the last election. Current polling suggests a blue-bloc government of the right is most likely, though whether the centre-right and hard right could work together well isn't totally clear. The election certainly isn't over either - not all polls show the right-bloc ahead, and if the Moderates stay in parliament and hold the balance of power they might seek to force another grand coalition into being.
Meanwhile, uh, the president of Venezuela got kidnapped by the Americans, who also have government thugs invading their cities and are threatening to end NATO, burn all their alliances, and invade Denmark? The Ukraine war looks as far away from ending as ever, and Iran's government is also shooting its citizens and being told off for it, ironically, by the Americans.
Some guesses for how the year will go globally:
- Elections: I think the Democrats will win the House but not the Senate in the midterms, I think Tisza will win the Hungarian elections in reality but that Orban will finally stoop to actual ballot-stuffing and rig it.
- Economy: I think there's an economic crash sometime in 2026, not sure of what severity but the AI market readjusting is going to be painful.
- Events: I think the Iranian government won't fall in the end, this ends up being more Iran's Tianamen Square than a regime collapse. I think ultimately Trump won't invade Greenland, and won't put boots on the ground in a large way in Venezuela, though neither would be wildly surprising if it happened. I suspect there'll still be a military front-line in Ukraine in December.