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US Politics 2024

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Jubal:
Another year, another US Pol thread beginneth.

The next few weeks will be critical to whether Trump gets a really clear run at the presidency from the GOP and legal sides (he probably will). If he runs table in Iowa and New Hampshire, which he looks like doing, that probably clears the GOP field for the most part. There's an outside chance that Nikki Haley could, if she comes second in Iowa and wins NH, still be a serious challenger, but that's unlikely.

At the moment Trump is largely outpolling Biden: I suspect that this is largely a result of Biden's polling being depressed among his own side (Israel, general incumbency penalties) while Trump's is buoyant, and that it'll be tighter once partisanship really starts cranking in and people face up to the potential reality of a second Trump presidency.

dubsartur:
A lot of Americans who are not on the far right have opinions of the Biden administration which seem hard to defend (ie. the president who ended the drone war, left Afghanistan, did not enter any new wars, is very friendly to unions and passed some climate legislation in the Inflation Reduction Act gets attacked from the left and very little public gratitude for points 1 3 and 4).  His disastrous public health policy has become bipartisan.  This pessimism and unwillingness to thank the administration for wins goes back long before the current Hamas-Israel war and Biden's very strong support for the Netanyahu government.  But I think that many, perhaps most, of the people who talk about US politics have no experience implementing policy through politics (some of them probably have experience in ingroup outgroup nonsense).

Jubal:
My suspicion is that negative partisanship and fear of Trump will reduce the volume of that criticism as the election gets closer, but I'd agree insofar that a lot of the more strident criticism of Biden does feel like it lacks a complete and effective theory of change behind it, even where I agree that I'd like a much more forceful and effective progressive movement in the US. Some of the criticism also lacks an effective appreciation of exactly how bad fascism is: there seems to be a degree of unrealistic "everything is so terrible due to American Imperialism and white supremacy now that what difference would outright fascism really make". To which the answer is still "a very, very large amount".

dubsartur:
I can see an argument for the Democrats committing to eg. "if we get 60% of the house and senate we will pass a national law guaranteeing the right to abortion" as a way of motivating voters and volunteers, but because US parties are weakly whipped its hard to do that.  Right now a lot of US persons understandably feel that the parties are calling wolf every two years.

Obviously as primate-politics go its not great that Biden is old and frail, but the leading Republican candidate is old and unwell too.  Obama was on the centre right too (and perhaps more oriented towards wealthy credentialed people than Biden is), but he got credit in primate politics for using lefty language in all those beautiful speeches.  Actually, Biden's tilt towards poorer less credentialed Americans over the professional managerial class might be one reason that the chattering class are lukewarm about him?

Fuel and food and housing are very expensive in the USA right now, but on the other hand there is low unemployment and its easier to buy those things when you have a job.  And until October 7 the antiwar movement could have come out and given the administration cover on leaving Afghanistan and ending the drone war.

Things are not great in the USA with COVID and the high cost of living, but they don't seem that bad for the kind of leftish people who talk a lot about national politics.

Edit: can't comment on Biden's fitness for the job beyond "old and frail" (I don't listen to his speeches or interviews) but a lot of animosity seems to be against his imagined personality or policies

Jubal:

--- Quote from: dubsartur on January 09, 2024, 02:40:17 AM ---Actually, Biden's tilt towards poorer less credentialed Americans over the professional managerial class might be one reason that the chattering class are lukewarm about him?

--- End quote ---
I think part of the problem all round may be that Biden's ideal target voter generally is part of a demographic that has aged out and moved into the Republican fold so heavily that he's not winning them back very effectively: even in the rust belt, today's swing voters are often younger and more suburban, whereas Biden would really like to be talking to a sort of white working class voting bloc that is fading and doesn't really trust him anyway. So it's probably true that chattering folks of today dislike his more old-school approach, but some of them do have a point in that managerial, office job, and service industry voters in the suburbs include a lot more swing voters than the remains of US heavy industry.

I think another problem that's wider than Biden but affects his relationship with some former blocs of swing voters is that broadly speaking the centre and left are less willing to pretend that the more polluting sorts of heavy industry have a real future, and people with those jobs or with emotional investment in that sort of industry would often rather be lied to by the right who will tell them that they can keep producing the stuff forever and that anything that happens to the contrary is the fault of the woke left. "We'll help you through the change" is still often unappealing to people who thought they had a secure economic footing, compared to "nothing needs to change".

It currently looks from polling like Trump will take about 50% of the vote in the Iowa caucuses and win by a country mile. And Iowa is actually a weak state for Trump in the GOP primary calendar.

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