Its been hard to follow the Russia-Ukraine war since fighting focused on the eastern front. Now that most of the fighting is artillery exchanges and attacks on Ukrainian fortifications, not so many photos and videos come in to the public domain to let us test UA and RU statements. I am skeptical of Ukrainian claims about how many of their soldiers are dying or how much more artillery the Russians have given that its in their interest to look like they need help. Three general observations:
- Russia is engaging in WW I style offensives against prepared positions and can't cut off a 30 km wide salient. Nathan Russer has stopped providing daily maps because the lines hardly move. 'Success' in operations like this is inflicting more damage than you suffer and I don't know who is doing better in that respect.
- Ukraine has mobilized its population, Russia still relies on volunteers and peacetime levels of conscription. Among other things, Russian soldiers have many procedural ways to avoid the war as long as they are under peacetime law.
- Ukraine is receiving a flood of arms and supplies, Russia is isolated and had an economy which heavily depended upon imported goods
So just like in March, Ukraine's long-term prospects are much better than Russia's. The next important event will probably be a big Ukrainian offensive in August or September. If I had to guess I would predict it will be in the south where Russian forces are spread thin, farther from their supplies, and have not entrenched for eight years.
Edit: the other significant event would be action by non-belligerent powers to allow Ukraine to export grain from Odessa before people who need it starve
Edit: on 7 July, Russian forces announced an operational pause to rest and recuperate. So Russia now states that it is unable to continue its last offensive in Ukraine
https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-july-7 Edit: also, for the past several months
shell-dumps in occupied Ukraine, Belarus, and Russia have been exploding. A lot of Russians and Donbas 'volunteers' will have died in those blasts, and equipment will have been destroyed. So its hard to tell who is losing soldiers and equipment faster, just that Ukraine is almost certainly getting new equipment and recruits faster.