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Forum Games - The Beer Cellar! / Re: Word Association
« on: Today at 05:21:30 PM »
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Discussion and Debate - The Philosopher's Plaza / Re: UK Politics 2024
« on: May 06, 2024, 08:18:37 PM »
I'd say in the UK the Tories are likewise strongly pro-Israel's government, Labour varies depending on its leadership but the current centrist leadership is also quite strongly pro-Israeli govt. The Liberals, SNP and Greens are all much more "ceasefire now" parties and more supportive of recognition for a Palestinian state.
The Lib Dems and SNP both have prominent representatives with links to Palestine (Layla Moran of the Lib Dems is half Palestinian, Humza Yousaf who just resigned as Scots first minister has family there on, IIRC, his wife's side of the family). There's also a stark tonal difference between the pro-Palestinianism of the SNP or Lib Dems, which tends to be focused around ceasefires and recognition, and that of the very left of Labour or of George Galloway and his followers, which is framed in much more anti-Israeli ways.
The Lib Dems and SNP both have prominent representatives with links to Palestine (Layla Moran of the Lib Dems is half Palestinian, Humza Yousaf who just resigned as Scots first minister has family there on, IIRC, his wife's side of the family). There's also a stark tonal difference between the pro-Palestinianism of the SNP or Lib Dems, which tends to be focused around ceasefires and recognition, and that of the very left of Labour or of George Galloway and his followers, which is framed in much more anti-Israeli ways.
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General Gaming - The Arcade / Re: Adventures After The Bombs Fell (Fallout Thread)
« on: May 06, 2024, 12:47:17 AM »
It is now sometime in May and I can report on my feelings on the ending! My feelings are... the game doesn't make you feel great about winning, does it? But it's a good and really interesting ending nonetheless.
Tons of spoilers below in tag:
Anyway, definitely enjoyed Fo4, will be up for playing more Fallout games at other times though it's a fairly long game series so probably won't do that immediately. I'd like to pick up the DLCs for Fo4 too, my guy Hannibal still has some story left in him I think (though he's one of my more generic protagonists by and large, just a smart and somewhat charismatic military leader really).
Tons of spoilers below in tag:
Spoiler (click to show/hide)
Anyway, definitely enjoyed Fo4, will be up for playing more Fallout games at other times though it's a fairly long game series so probably won't do that immediately. I'd like to pick up the DLCs for Fo4 too, my guy Hannibal still has some story left in him I think (though he's one of my more generic protagonists by and large, just a smart and somewhat charismatic military leader really).
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General Chatter - The Boozer / RIP Bernard Hill
« on: May 05, 2024, 04:47:21 PM »
Just saw the sad news that Bernard Hill, notable for playing the captain of the Titanic and Theoden of Rohan, has died. I don't really react much to or notice actor and celebrity deaths a lot of the time, but this one I definitely did: his portrayal of Theoden was for me one of the critical moments of the Jackson LOTR films and he played the character wonderfully. Definitely someone whose work will stay with me.
https://www.bbc.com/news/entertainment-arts-68962192
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Discussion and Debate - The Philosopher's Plaza / Re: UK Politics 2024
« on: May 05, 2024, 04:42:50 PM »
The UK has had some local elections! The Conservatives did very badly, small independent factions (especially those opposing Labour over Gaza) did rather well, Reform UK on the far right also did very badly despite a boost in vote share, the Greens and Liberals did fine but missed out on some big prizes and breakthroughs, and Labour also did fine but were polling more like they were nine points ahead than the 18-20 national polls would suggest.
I actually don't think this is good evidence that the polls are wrong and the election will be merely a big Labour win, which seems to be how it's being read by pundits who cannot contemplate what a 20 point victory would look like. I've written some notes on why that might be the case here:
https://thoughtsofprogress.wordpress.com/2024/05/05/uk-local-elections-some-points-to-remember/
The long and short of it is that I am still expecting the Conservatives to get very hammered and for Labour to end up with, at minimum, about 400 seats, and they're still polling like a party that could win 500.
I actually don't think this is good evidence that the polls are wrong and the election will be merely a big Labour win, which seems to be how it's being read by pundits who cannot contemplate what a 20 point victory would look like. I've written some notes on why that might be the case here:
https://thoughtsofprogress.wordpress.com/2024/05/05/uk-local-elections-some-points-to-remember/
The long and short of it is that I am still expecting the Conservatives to get very hammered and for Labour to end up with, at minimum, about 400 seats, and they're still polling like a party that could win 500.
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Discussion and Debate - The Philosopher's Plaza / Re: US Politics 2024
« on: May 05, 2024, 10:39:04 AM »
FiveThirtyEight now has its polling averages up and running. Federal level, their average has Trump up by a point, and I think I'm right looking at the swing states with my suggestion earlier that Biden needs to be up 2-3 points to eke out a win.
From the polls we've had so far, Trump leads across the swing states:
Michigan + 1.4
Pennsylvania + 1.8
Wisconsin + 2.8
Arizona + 3.2
Nevada +5.1
Georgia + 5.9
If Biden wins WI, MI, and PA, loses Maine's second district and Nebraska's second (the two swing bits of states that award some separate electoral votes on a by-district basis), then he probably gets precisely 269 electoral votes (which is to say, the presidential election gets tied and gets decided by the US house). Probably Biden's minimum victory is all that plus winning one of those two singular votes, and that means moving about three points up (to leading by 2-3 points). That's not an unrealistic goal, but it's also tricky to see exactly where Biden gets that benefit from right now.
The slightly better news for Biden is that these don't seem to be states where Democrats are destined to lose, so he may hope to be dragged upwards by more popular lower-tier candidates (though equally he might drag them down, it works both ways). But recent surveys have showed Democrats leading in the Senate races in Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Nevada, and running a handy few points ahead of Biden. Holding the Senate as a whole is a hell of an ask for the Democrats because they also need to retain Montana and Ohio, very red seats where they have fairly popular long-standing incumbents, and they need to hold the White House to get the VP's tie-breaking vote. That said, there is evidence they can get the fifty seats - getting the White House as well looks like it might be the hard ask right now.
From the polls we've had so far, Trump leads across the swing states:
Michigan + 1.4
Pennsylvania + 1.8
Wisconsin + 2.8
Arizona + 3.2
Nevada +5.1
Georgia + 5.9
If Biden wins WI, MI, and PA, loses Maine's second district and Nebraska's second (the two swing bits of states that award some separate electoral votes on a by-district basis), then he probably gets precisely 269 electoral votes (which is to say, the presidential election gets tied and gets decided by the US house). Probably Biden's minimum victory is all that plus winning one of those two singular votes, and that means moving about three points up (to leading by 2-3 points). That's not an unrealistic goal, but it's also tricky to see exactly where Biden gets that benefit from right now.
The slightly better news for Biden is that these don't seem to be states where Democrats are destined to lose, so he may hope to be dragged upwards by more popular lower-tier candidates (though equally he might drag them down, it works both ways). But recent surveys have showed Democrats leading in the Senate races in Arizona, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Michigan, and Nevada, and running a handy few points ahead of Biden. Holding the Senate as a whole is a hell of an ask for the Democrats because they also need to retain Montana and Ohio, very red seats where they have fairly popular long-standing incumbents, and they need to hold the White House to get the VP's tie-breaking vote. That said, there is evidence they can get the fifty seats - getting the White House as well looks like it might be the hard ask right now.
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Discussion and Debate - The Philosopher's Plaza / Re: World Politics and Elections 2024
« on: May 05, 2024, 10:17:39 AM »
Mm, that is interesting. It seems a common malaise for many government leaders that they end up keeping too tight a surrounding circle which insulates them from critique. I'm not sure how one solves that problem: maybe it's just a good reason for changing leaders more often before they develop to that point. I was talking to a French-Canadian at a conference recently who was opining that it was as much long-running malaise as anything with the Trudeau government. Of course, they may end up ruing bitterly their failure to pass any sort of electoral reform: preference voting or PR would give them a fighting chance of staying leading a coalition even with the Tories on forty percent of the vote, but Canada seems to have inherited Britain's allergy to formal coalitions.
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General Chatter - The Boozer / Re: Exilian Pub Out Of Context
« on: May 03, 2024, 10:59:01 PM »
"I very much like tyranny and I'm very sad we won't get more tyranny."