Poll

Of the two main contenders for the US presidency, which would you prefer as the President of the USA?

Barack Obama (Democrat)
5 (83.3%)
Mitt Romney (Republican)
0 (0%)
Either/no preference/both equally bad
1 (16.7%)

Total Members Voted: 5

Voting closed: May 28, 2012, 05:54:26 PM

Author Topic: The Presidential Election For The World...  (Read 16742 times)

Jubal

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Re: The Presidential Election For The World...
« Reply #45 on: September 03, 2012, 02:05:33 PM »
Romney's speech seems to have made a sum total of no difference to voting intention whatsoever so far, just 2% more people said it made them more likely to vote for him than said it made them less likely and the main polling companies haven't recorded a voting intention change. Given that on average a convention gives at least a 5% boost to a candidate in voting intention this looks a bad sign for the GOP.
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Jubal

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Re: The Presidential Election For The World...
« Reply #46 on: September 07, 2012, 07:51:58 PM »
Obama's approval rating today hit over 50% and his lead started opening up - to three points after a long neck and neck period. If this is the start of a so-called "convention bounce", it could make Obama the definite leader.
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comrade_general

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Re: The Presidential Election For The World...
« Reply #47 on: September 07, 2012, 11:06:03 PM »
A lot, and I mean A LOT, can change in two months.

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Re: The Presidential Election For The World...
« Reply #48 on: September 07, 2012, 11:32:06 PM »
True, but based on prior statistics if one candidate doesn't get a bounce and the other does, the bounce-ee usually wins. A lot can change, but looking at past polling data indicates that it rarely does barring truly exceptional circumstances. I also would factor in the fact that I'd expect Obama to dominate the TV debates, since regardless of policy he comes over far better on camera and as a speaker than Romney (and sadly the Libertarian and Green candidates aren't allowed into the debate; I'm not just basing that assessment of Obama's skills on my own view either, from polls his likeability is constantly well above Mitt's).
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Re: The Presidential Election For The World...
« Reply #49 on: September 08, 2012, 12:34:10 AM »
Yeah I know he is already gonna win, and I think it's stupid that they don't include more parties in the debates.

Jubal

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Re: The Presidential Election For The World...
« Reply #50 on: September 08, 2012, 01:23:09 PM »
I think Rom picking Ryan was his last failed attempt to turn things around. He really needed someone more centrist and far, far more charismatic.

Agreed though, I'd like to see every party with enough ballot access to win (aka on the ballot papers in states controlling 270 or more electoral votes) being in the debates. Which would be Obama, Romney, Johnson and Stein this time around.
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Re: The Presidential Election For The World...
« Reply #51 on: September 09, 2012, 03:47:27 AM »
Though I think the Dubya had a higher rating over Kerry in '04 than Berry has over Romney right now, and that was a very close election.

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Re: The Presidential Election For The World...
« Reply #52 on: September 15, 2012, 09:46:00 PM »
And the polls are bouncing down to equilibrium again apparently, from a 7 point gap down to 4.

I have to say, our system of only having a few weeks of campaigning does seem a lot simpler than taking a whole year over it.
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Re: The Presidential Election For The World...
« Reply #53 on: September 15, 2012, 09:49:53 PM »
Not to mention the lesser level of annoyance that must come with that.

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Re: The Presidential Election For The World...
« Reply #54 on: September 18, 2012, 06:23:27 PM »
Polling watch, Gallup now has the two candidates gap narrowing to 1 point (their poll is a 7 day rolling average, I should add). These two sentences at the start of this post are also the only good news for the GOP today.

So, anyone in the 47% who don't pay federal income tax believes they're entitled to everything under the sun and all vote Obama (despite that of this 47%, 60% of them are in low-paid jobs and not getting many entitlements and a further 20% are pensioners, a key right-wing voting group). Also, the Palestinian people have no interest in middle eastern peace and Iran is likely to be trying to attack the US with dirty bombs in Chicago.

This groundbreaking news came from Romney at a fundraiser. I mean, even if he believes that sort of thing the idiocy of saying it is incredible. I don't know if it will change the game much in terms of votes, but certainly the Middle East stuff makes the man more of a laughing stock abroad than insulting our Olympics etc already made him. It does seem stupid to be implying that a group that includes war veterans, many of the lowest paid and most struggling workers, and previously hardworking pensioners are all layabouts who want to rely on the state.

Also read an interesting article pointing out that Fox News is employing several people who directly advise the Romney campaign to comment on the election - and not in their capacity as election advisers, as independent analysts. John Bolton (advises Romney on foreign policy, paid by Fox to analyse foreign policy), Jay Sekulow (legal analysis for Fox, conservative liason in the Romney campaign), Walid Phares (foreign policy and security advice for Romney, analyses Middle Eastern affairs for Fox), Karl Rove (runs a large Super PAC that spends money for Romney, analyses politics for Fox) and Elaine Chao (who has now left Fox, but her patch there overlapped with her position as a National Chair of Romney's campaign). None of this is, of course, illegal, and most of these guys aren't being paid by Romney strictly speaking, but it calls into question Fox's reputation for independence and it would seem a damn sight wiser to draw a clear distinction - if you're an advisor to a political campaign or a leader of a super PAC it seems reasonable that news organisations should be required to state that. It's not like there aren't other conservative pundits in the world, and even if I want to watch Fox I think there may be better people to independently analyse the impact of Karl Rove's advert campaigns than Karl Rove (yes, this actually happened).

Still not hearing much from Johnson or Stein on the news sites, sadly.

And as my final update, as well as the Presidential debates we are apparently going to get Jon Stewart VS Bill O'Reilly in October, which should be a laugh.
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Jubal

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Re: The Presidential Election For The World...
« Reply #55 on: October 13, 2012, 12:33:05 AM »
A good debate performance in Denver and he's back - Mitt Romney style!


It's now roughly tied, but Mitt seems to have the momentum. Biden and Ryan's debate looks like more or less a tie, so it's looking grim for the president nationally. The on the ground polling in swing states seems to still narrowly be in his favour though; Romney still hasn't pulled ahead in Ohio.

Ohio is important, for one key reason. Basically, there are not that many swing states - There's Virginia, Ohio, Florida, and possibly Wisconsin as the biggies, with Iowa, Colorado, Nevada and New Hampshire as smaller ones (We're here assuming Obama can carry Michigan and Pensylvania, and Romney North Carolina and Indiana, which seems a fairly safe bet at the moment barring more major cockups).

So with those eight states as "in play", Obama has more to start with - Obama would have 237 electoral college votes leaning his way, Romney just 206. That means that if Obama carries Wisconsin and Ohio, he just needs one of the other six (any of them other then New Hampshire will do - NH would tie the election at 269 votes apiece) and the election is his. Conversely if Romney can't carry Ohio or Wisconsin, he literally has only one path to victory - he has to capture every single other state, and taking Iowa and Nevada is not looking an easy task.

Current Jubal Forecast: Obama narrowly wins, taking Ohio, Wisconsin, Nevada, New Hampshire and Iowa, but with Virginia, Florida, and Colorado falling to Romney. 281 to 257 in the electoral college.
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Re: The Presidential Election For The World...
« Reply #56 on: October 13, 2012, 02:01:06 PM »
No, Ohio is important because I live there! ;D

debux

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Re: The Presidential Election For The World...
« Reply #57 on: October 13, 2012, 10:35:04 PM »
I really hope Romney doesn't get elected... Obamacare isn't a bad idea, it just wasn't executed at the right time... but I don't want to have a Bush v.2 as the leader of the most influential country of the western world right now.
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Re: The Presidential Election For The World...
« Reply #58 on: October 13, 2012, 10:36:52 PM »
You'd be thinking quite different if you lived here, deebz. ;)

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Re: The Presidential Election For The World...
« Reply #59 on: October 15, 2012, 01:10:33 AM »
Yeah.. I got that from my future brother-in-law too. Maybe I also got too much into the "first black president" fever :P
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