These are just some musings of mine on the future of Libertarianism. The ideology behind it has surged in the last four or five years, undeniably. This is most particularly the case in the USA.
This in turn has led to some success; Ron Paul, the de facto leader of American Libertarianism, presented a significant force in the Republican primaries and performed best amongst young voters out of all the candidates. His ability - as one reporter put it - to talk about bond markets and interest rates then receive a standing ovation from college students galvanised a campaign which, if not on the scale of Romney's, certainly had vocal enthusiasm.
That is, until the other candidates dropped out. It became progressively more clear that even with Paulite libertarians infiltrating party structures across the USA the juggernaut of Romney's campaign spending could outlast the relatively isolated libertarian faction. Furthermore, many of Paul's supporters came from outside the Republican party, further weakening his ability to win election. Some vocal cheering and a little anger at the convention was all Paul could muster, refusing a speaking spot due to it having too many attached strings.
In short, the attempt to libertarianise the GOP has (for now) failed. The Libertarian party are finding it hard to draw people away from the GOP with their lower spending and lack of access to Paul's celebrity. And there's a lot of personal politics involved too. Paul, grandfather of the modern libertarian movement, is still very much tied to the GOP despite admitting his contrary views. He has something of a personal rapport with Romney, and more importantly his son Rand is a Republican senator. A full scale breaking of ranks by the older Paul would scupper the younger's chances of a 2016 Presidential bid that could unite the Paulite faction with the rest of the GOP.
More confusingly yet, if the Paulites did follow Rand they'd hardly be dancing to the same old tune. Rand is very much more neoconservative than his father, supporting amendments to the constitution to prevent abortions whereas his father has a more states' rights based view. He is less isolationist on foreign policy, supporting the war in Afghanistan for example. The "Ron Paul Revolution" is happily being downgraded to a mild-mannered disagreement by the second generation. Governor Gary Johnson, former Gov. of New Mexico, is intellectually far more Paul's heir, but may lack the media coverage to make a real dent in the 2012 election (which he is fighting on the third party Libertarian ticket) and is unlikely to be endorsed by the movement's elder statesman.
Johnson has not only inherited Paul's policies though - he has inherited the movement's two most fatal weaknesses. Firstly, the GOP link. The Republicans are not, bluntly, a Libertarian party, but a lot of the Paulites are still trapped (mentally speaking) in the old party's structures. Secondly, more fatally, there is a simple question: why are the Libertarians focussing their efforts and money on a Presidential bid that is virtually guaranteed to fail? The question for men like Johnson is whether they are genuinely committed to Libertarianism as an ideology and a party or whether they are simply seeking a final spot in the limelight after a political career that never quite hit the top spot. If the former is the case, they need to start at a lower level. There is not a single Libertarian in the US Congress; pushing to get some congressmen elected would give the Libertarians consistent nationwide coverage, particularly if they were able to hold a balance of power in the House of Representatives.
Based on a map of Paul's election successes, the following districts have some libertarian leaning; Texas' fourteenth, Maine's second, Idaho's first, Washington's fifth and fourth, and all three of Nevada's. Instead of funding Johnson's election campaign, the Libertarians would be better placed to spend their money on building up ground troops and trying to win seats in these key areas. Without any regular voting blocks, the cycle of ex-Republicans struggling to reach one percent of the vote in presidential campaigns seems likely to continue. Libertarianism has entered the popular consciousness, but the difficult part of the road for its adherents - entering the corridors of power - is going to be a path fraught with difficulty.
Hope you found that interesting, just got bored so thought a bit of political analysis might be fun.
