I'm going to refrain from too much angryposting here, but an update on the campaign:
Basically the polls seem to be tied, but there's a big gap between online and phone polling - online polls push towards leave, phone polls towards remain. It's hard to tell what this means; traditionally phone polls have been marginally more accurate, but it may show that there's a "quiet Brexit" group who will be less likely to admit it when asked but will push a button for it in the more anonymous online setting. The biggest question is really how wavering voters will go, as (particularly with the polls so close) the wavering voters greatly outnumber the margins of victory in most polls; the usual thing in referenda is that waverers tend to break towards the status quo when they get into the polling booth (see for example the No vote in the Scotland referendum), but of course it's hard to say whether that'll happen here.
We also have a Cameron VS Farage ITV debate coming up, which reportedly Vote Leave are mad about as they're worried Farage will screw up their campaign (though apparently they'd have preferred to put Gove up against the PM, and I suspect that Farage will do better than Gove would on account of, well, not being Michael Gove).
I guess my expectation, to stick my neck out and make a prediction is that it will be pretty narrow, I don't think either side will get above 55% of non-abstainers and I'd be surprised if the winner got a better result than about 48-52 in their favour. If I was asked to put absolute numbers, I think that Cameron's frankly armadilloty tactics will just about sneak him over the line 51-49 in favour of staying. That said, if either side does really run away with it unexpectedly, it'll be Leave I think. It's hard for the status-quo campaign (and whilst Remain didn't have to position itself as a purely status-quo campaign, it did and that's where we are) to produce surges in referenda in the way that Leave could if a suitable news event happens.