Yes, I just ignore most of what Trump does and look at the numbers because I understand those better.
Polling updated: basically, since my last post, a buncha stuff happened around a new conservative judge, but he got confirmed anyway as expected.
Dems are still going to lose the Senate - Florida has rallied a bit for them, IN and MT are going to be tight, MO is going to be knife-edge, North Dakota is as good as gone though and they're struggling in Nevada, and their two long-shots (Texas and Tennessee) seem to be fading in the home stretch. Beto O'Rourke still has an arsetonne of money to spend in Texas and has been breaking fundraising records though, so they may still have a better shot there than the polls suggest (I think it's unlikely though). Dems are probably going to win the House back though, the GOP is just too exposed and not popular enough and the usual swing against the President's party seems like it's likely to see the Dems home mostly from chasing a load of GOP congressmen out of blue states (California, New Jersey, and Pennsylvania especially look like going a bunch more blue and providing over half the seats the Dems need between the three of them).
So I guess some good news whoever you support, if you support one of the main two parties, and if you don't, as usual in US politics, sucks to be you
It does still look quite likely that Gary Johnson will get a creditable second place in the New Mex senate race, which I still find funny mainly because everyone's fancy prediction models literally struggle to cope with the concept of a viable third party candidate, they're not built to handle the eventuality. Still really doesn't look likely that he'll win, though. I don't know why the Libertarian Party can't seem to get more good candidates in the west - like, statewide races in places like the Dakotas and Wyoming ought to be decent shots for them in some ways, especially since there's a bunch of those states where the Democrats are almost nonexistent so there's less competition. I keep meaning to write a piece on this and not getting round to it.
