UK politics: Post-Brexit edition

[Jubal]

What are the main cultural influences on British police now that they don't hire as many aging ex-servicemembers?

That's a good question, and I'm not sure it's one I could answer perfectly. Like in most places the police tend to lean politically authoritarian, though not universally and they've not got quite the same militaristic lean for the most part as I've seen in US police.


Anyhow, the key UK news is sadly that an MP, Sir David Amess, has been murdered in what appears to be an Islamic extremist terrorist attack. Definitely everyone I know in politics is feeling quite rattled right now, and there's discussions over whether this will lead to more spending on protection for MPs or less access to MPs for the public.

[dubsartur]

I also saw something about the London Metropolitan Police creating an app to call in to verify that plainclothes officers are police officers which, again, would not have helped the murdered woman just made it quicker to track down her killer.

In the US, the War on Some People using Some Drugs was a big driver of police militarization (dealers start flushing the goods down the toilet, so police start dawn raids with battering rams and get surprised when robbers use the same tactic or a frightened homeowner stabs them; gangs settle their business disputes with Glocks, so the police demand heavier weapons and get offended that someone thinks firing 50 rounds at a traffic stop was excessive).  The UK has many fewer firearms in circulation, and its not quite as invested in the War on Some People as the USA is, so how does that affect things?

In the Can pol thread you brought up redistricting.  Are there debates in the UK about rural areas being over-represented by population but being further from the centres of power to use their representation like there are in Canada?

[Glaurung]

In the Can pol thread you brought up redistricting.  Are there debates in the UK about rural areas being over-represented by population but being further from the centres of power to use their representation like there are in Canada?

The UK has a fairly long-standing tradition of making parliamentary constituencies have roughly equal population, with a periodic review process (carried out by a government body called the Boundary Commission) to make sure that's maintained in the face of population shifts. So rural areas are not over-represented relative to their population. However there is a definite sense (whether or not justified) that places further from London (even major cities) have less influence in national politics.

[dubsartur]

In the Can pol thread you brought up redistricting.  Are there debates in the UK about rural areas being over-represented by population but being further from the centres of power to use their representation like there are in Canada?

The UK has a fairly long-standing tradition of making parliamentary constituencies have roughly equal population, with a periodic review process (carried out by a government body called the Boundary Commission) to make sure that's maintained in the face of population shifts. So rural areas are not over-represented relative to their population. However there is a definite sense (whether or not justified) that places further from London (even major cities) have less influence in national politics.

Here is a journalistic take on the situation in Canada https://www.thestar.com/politics/2019/10/13/one-person-one-vote-in-canada-its-not-even-close.html  I'm not qualified to comment on it in detail, other than that its broadly in line with what I remember.

[Jubal]

Well, the UK's politics are getting somewhat interesting in that the Conservatives finally seem to be dropping rather hard in the polls, in the wake of so many government scandals that some are being covered up by the coverage of other scandals. The "No. 10 had a Christmas party whilst telling everyone else  to be in lockdown" seems to have some real traction and is hurting the Tories - recent polls actually have some clear water with Labour ahead for the first time in a while.

The Conservatives quietly held a recent by-election in the safe seat of Old Bexley and Sidcup: next week there's another, in the (again nominally safe) seat of North Shropshire which the Lib Dems are throwing the kitchen sink at - it's a heck of a lift but with the government doing this badly some people do seem to think we might win it.

[Pentagathus]

It's a shame we've got such a wait until the next scheduled GE. Long time to keep the fingers crossed.

[Glaurung]

The Conservatives quietly held a recent by-election in the safe seat of Old Bexley and Sidcup: next week there's another, in the (again nominally safe) seat of North Shropshire which the Lib Dems are throwing the kitchen sink at - it's a heck of a lift but with the government doing this badly some people do seem to think we might win it.

And indeed, after much kitchen-sink throwing, it's a LibDem win - a 34% swing from 2019, albeit on a rather reduced turnout. In practice what appears to have happened is lots of Conservative voters staying at home, and non-Tory votes coalescing around the LibDems.

[dubsartur]

It occurs to me that the Tory Christmas Party Scandal is a lot like the scandal in Alberta where several MPs spent the end of 2020 on vacation somewhere warm after telling their constituents to stay home this year?  Hypocrasy tends to annoy people who otherwise don't pay attention to government.

What does "throwing the kitchen sink" at a riding look like in a small-party, UK context?

[Jubal]

To give an idea of the scale, 34 percent puts it as the seventh largest by election swing in British history. It's a very, very big number as these things go.

What does "throwing the kitchen sink" at a riding look like in a small-party, UK context?

Not just any small party - the Lib Dems essentially have a political culture that has almost evolved to specialise in by elections. If we decide we're fighting one hard we flood the seat with activists and leaflets - a lot of it's show of strength to convince people we're the main challenger - and whilst our activist base is smaller than e.g. Labour's, they're well trained and extremely dedicated and mobile and when the party starts pushing core activists to go a by election, quite a lot will (there's a camaraderie element too of course: building friendships etc creates cohesion and encourages people back). We had people from the whole country just descend on the seat - but we also have the knowhow on how to get an HQ set up fast, how to find stakeboard sites, how to get printing set up, etc. There's a lot of quite politically unusual specislised skills in how to turn up with nothing and have a campaign infrastructure workable for hundreds of activists built within a week. When concentrated, even from a weak start we can get a lot of canvass data very fast, then use that to target leaflets and drop bits of internal polling through the rest of the campaign. A lot of it is just delivering lots of material and canvassing very fast: as the government scandals emerged this week, we were getting them onto leaflets and hand delivered out to a large chunk of the constituency practically by the next day. There's financial spend too of course, though in a good by election with the wind in our sails we probably make more from donations than we actually spent on the ground.