Author Topic: US Politics 2022  (Read 7255 times)

Jubal

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Re: US Politics 2022
« Reply #15 on: November 12, 2022, 09:00:52 PM »
The Republicans did not steamroller it, in fact. The polls were pretty solid, too: as expected, Nevada is really close, Arizona was tight but Democrat, Georgia is going to a run-off, Pennsylvania was a Democrat win (probably this is the worst polling miss, it was starting to look red in the polling averages but Fetterman actually came out pretty solid). Democrats missed by a few in Ohio and Wisconsin.

We still don't officially know who will win the Senate, but probably Democrats will win Nevada and if they don't it'll hinge on the Georgia run-off. I expect the remaining votes to favour Cortez Masto enough to win though, per reporting from the Nevada Independent (Jon Ralston of the Nevada Indy is one of those fantastic local journalists who actually gets politics in his state in a way few people do). Conversely, Republicans will almost certainly win the house but with a majority of five seats or fewer - frustrating for Democrats because that means that if the NY courts hadn't dramatically overturned their attempted blue gerrymander there, they'd probably be on track to hold the house right now.

Either way - it's unlikely Dems will be able to legislate, unless the Republican house majority implodes itself, so my earlier prediction of deadlock seems about right. But with a tiny majority and with Trump looking weak after so many of his preferred candidates lost (and deSantis looking very strong after crushingly good Florida results), the chance of GOP infighting has skyrocketed which must feel like good news for Democrats. Sometimes, winning the narrative game has real consequence.
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dubsartur

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Re: US Politics 2022
« Reply #16 on: November 13, 2022, 06:26:53 AM »
I'm a pessimist and the media narratives about bad news for Democrats keep pumping out as self-fulfilling prophetic utterances so I'm more inclined to bet that the Republicans will steamroller it, but honestly I'm not sure anyone really knows.
Two of the things that US journalists and pundits will never repent of until they are in those patriotic labour facilities are 1) predicting the future for a mass audience is a form of black magic, it can make things which are false true, and 2) journalists are no good at predicting or big complicated analyses, but they can do OK at establishing facts and noting connections on a human scale ("the public housing which just collapsed used concrete from a business part-owned by the Minister's probable lover").  But telling narratives is more profitable and makes them feel good and does not require going out and talking to people who are different from them or saying "I don't know and I don't think anyone can know".  For most of the minority of people who follow national politics, its like a soap opera with twists and turns and villains, not a source of facts to guide action.

We also saw the relationship between former guy and the press corps, where each hated the other but one got money and attention for talking about the other, and the other got power and attention.  If Americans lose their democracy, that dynamic will have been one of the major causes.
« Last Edit: November 13, 2022, 06:33:55 AM by dubsartur »

Jubal

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Re: US Politics 2022
« Reply #17 on: November 13, 2022, 11:57:30 AM »
The Senate remains blue! The Nevada Independent called their state for Catherine Cortez Masto this morning (this morning European time anyway, yesterday evening US time I suppose). Democrats will either hold steady or go +1 depending on Georgia. Getting to 51 seats would give the Democrats a tiny bit of useful wiggle room, notably giving them majorities on key Senate committees rather than even splits, and giving a 1-seat margin for Manchin or Sinema to vote against a given measure while still getting it passed.

The House still looks like it'll be a single-figure-seats GOP majority.

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dubsartur

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Re: US Politics 2022
« Reply #18 on: November 14, 2022, 02:14:51 AM »
It seems like the best that could be expected.  Maybe if Facebook and Twitter continue to collapse there will be some other good news in 2024.

OTOH, a lot of the key parties are over 70, and there are a lot of heavily armed right-wingers disconnected from political reality.  So there could be more black swans like "Mitch McConnel dies of Covid" or "sniper shoots someone I won't name because I don't want the US secret service monitoring Exilian".

The collapse of the FTX cryptocurrency exchange may get some attention from legislators.  Its so bad that the authorities in the Bahamas are prosecuting!
« Last Edit: November 14, 2022, 02:43:11 AM by dubsartur »

Jubal

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Re: US Politics 2022
« Reply #19 on: November 30, 2022, 08:48:02 PM »
Quote
"sniper shoots someone I won't name because I don't want the US secret service monitoring Exilian".
I expect we're fairly beneath their notice (if not, hello there lads!)



Rep. Hakeem Jeffries is now the leader of the congressional Democrats - the first black leader of a party caucus in either house of Congress. Definitely a real generation change after Pelosi, as well. On the Republican side, Kevin McCarthy still doesn't have enough votes to become Speaker by all accounts, and it's really unclear who else could emerge who might get the job. Looking weak from the start probably isn't going to help the GOP congress give a good impression to anyone over the next few years.

Polls of the Georgia run-off are showing it essentially tied. Apparently if the Democrats win it, they get a much easier hand on committee appointments (because holding an actual majority not just a tie-break majority gives them committee majorities too), which might make things smoother for them on Senate-only business (like reviewing appointments/judges).
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dubsartur

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Re: US Politics 2022
« Reply #20 on: December 01, 2022, 09:01:59 PM »
It seems like the House Democrats made a point of choosing people under 60 for their internal offices such as the Minority Leader, Whip, and Caucus Chair this time?

Previously all three offices were held by people over 80.

Jubal

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Re: US Politics 2022
« Reply #21 on: December 07, 2022, 12:54:09 PM »
Yeah, I've seen speculation that it's likely considered a good time for a shift: the new leadership don't have the immediate pressure of governing and do have a weak Republican majority to try and undermine.

Anyhow, the big news this morning is that Democrats did indeed win the Georgia run-off, with Raphael Warnock currently at a 2.8% lead (51.4-48.6) over Herschel Walker with nearly all the votes in. That's marginally better than his 2020 runoff result against Loeffler, and ensures Democrats have at least one of the Georgia seats until 2028.

Democrats will still need a really big national win/big overperformances by Tester, Manchin, and Brown to hold the Senate in 2024.

On a 2024 note I read through this piece on Ron DeSantis today, which helped me get a bit more of a handle on where he is on things. I'm not sure how well his playbook will work against Trump, and nor indeed are the GOP primary polls I've seen which seem to be all over the place - literally ranging from like Trump +20 to DeSantis +20. I'm sure DeSantis is much more dangerous to the Democrats, certainly right now, but I can't see Trump losing gracefully which at the very least means a heavy-negatives, bruising primary campaign that may leave whoever wins it with fresh problems.
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Jubal

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Re: US Politics 2022
« Reply #22 on: December 09, 2022, 08:32:42 PM »
And having gained one senator, the Dems have lost another - Kyrsten Sinema is now a registered Independent, though it looks like she'll continue to caucus with Democrats. It puts the party in a very sticky position for 2024, because she'll probably dare them to nominate a candidate knowing that, if they do, the GOP end up winning the seat.

https://www.bbc.com/news/world-us-canada-63917462
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