Author Topic: Russia/Ukraine Crisis 2022-3  (Read 31290 times)

dubsartur

  • Citizens
    Voting Member
  • Posts: 1029
  • Karma: 4
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis 2022
« Reply #45 on: March 16, 2022, 06:01:22 PM »
Thomas Piketty has an opinion piece on what sanctions targeted at oligarchs would involve, and how rich people in the Atlantic world won't like them https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/mar/16/russia-rich-wealthy-western-elites-thomas-piketty

psyanojim

  • Posts: 58
  • Karma: 0
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis 2022
« Reply #46 on: March 17, 2022, 12:34:35 PM »
As I think I said upthread, we seem to now be in a world where "pound this city into rubble" is simply an easier task for most militaries to accomplish than "capture this city intact" and that probably isn't a good thing for the fate of cities in wartime.
I'm not sure how much this specific situation extends to the general case.

On the one side, Ukraine has access to the most cutting edge NATO anti-armor missiles, and their army has had several years of Western training on the use of these weapons. Also, Ukraine lack the vehicles and airpower to fight their own offensive war, so are quite limited to defensive operations, ambushes and special-forces style raids.

So most heavy conflict is happening in urban areas because those are the areas that Ukraine are contesting heavily.

On the other side, Russia are using massive quantities of some fairly obsolete equipment which doesn't have the armor to stand up to those NATO anti-armor weapons. Russia also seems quite tolerant of high casualties and equipment losses.

The doctrine around use of such armor in urban/close quarters combat normally calls for infantry to screen the armor. Russia haven't been doing this, which is one of the big questions surrounding their tactics. Is it because of poor infantry training? (too many conscripts)... Poor communication equipment? (Russians have been pictured using civilian analog radios ffs, and Ukranians are able to listen in and jam by drowning out the relevant wavelengths with the Ukranian national anthem!)... or something else?

Also, a lot of the city damage is being caused by conventional artillery. If Ukraine had more air/artillery power themselves, the Russian artillery would not be able to sit back and lob shells/rockets without taking massive counter-battery fire.

If the Russian artillery knew their shells/rockets would be tracked and counter-battery fire would commence literally minutes after they fired themselves, they would be forced to pick their targets a LOT more carefully. Suddenly, shelling random non-military targets like apartment blocks doesn't seem such a smart move in that kind of environment.

So although this is one of the less 'asymmetric' modern conflicts we've seen in recent history, its still quite lopsided in some very key ways that make it quite unusual.

Doesn't really help the situation the Ukranian cities find themselves in of course...
« Last Edit: March 17, 2022, 12:40:49 PM by psyanojim »

psyanojim

  • Posts: 58
  • Karma: 0
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis 2022
« Reply #47 on: March 17, 2022, 12:38:57 PM »
In contrast, this is what using artillery/rockets against a truly modern military looks like

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=KsVUISS8oHs

Also note the screams for 'get some H.E.' at the end. That is the gunners calling for counter-battery fire. Thats how fast the incoming fire is tracked backed to its location, and the counter-battery fire starts.

If the Russians were faced with that sort of defensive setup, in combination with a lethal defensive missile system like Patriot/THAAD/Iron Dome... their artillery (and air force) would be paying a much higher price for this medieval tactic of flattening cities with uncoordinated, inaccurate fire.
« Last Edit: March 17, 2022, 02:32:46 PM by psyanojim »

dubsartur

  • Citizens
    Voting Member
  • Posts: 1029
  • Karma: 4
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis 2022
« Reply #48 on: March 17, 2022, 09:15:52 PM »
I don't know of any time in the past 5,000 years when fighting your way into a fortified city that was ready to resist was not a bloody and risky affair, or when it was not common to threaten atrocities against the civilian population to force the combatants to surrender.  A woman on a roof with a clay tile killed Pyrrhos of Epeiros, and refusing to let people leave the city unless it surrenders goes back to the Lament for Sumer and Urim (CW: atrocities against civilians).

Without going to war against Russia, I don't know what can be done other than donating to relief organizations and helping refugees.

The Ukrainians say they are shooting down most cruise missiles aimed at Kyiv, I saw some claims that units in the south were stripped of their air defenses to reinforce Kyiv before the war began.
« Last Edit: March 17, 2022, 09:22:18 PM by dubsartur »

psyanojim

  • Posts: 58
  • Karma: 0
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis 2022
« Reply #49 on: March 18, 2022, 02:48:22 AM »
Its a very strange combination of factors leading to the current situation.

- Ukraine has an extreme ability to counter Russian armor (lethality of NATO weapons vs obsolete Russian armor and tactics)
- Russian close-air support is also very vulnerable to these NATO weapons
- Russian infantry doesnt seem up to the job of screening the armor effectively
- Russian air-force is strangely non-dominant considering its advantages
- Russian precision weapons like cruise missiles are working up to a point, but these are expensive and in short supply

This leaves the one area where the Russians have a plentiful supply, is sufficiently simple to coordinate, and the Ukranians have a limited ability to counter - dumb-fire massed artillery. This combined with Ukraines limited ability to conduct offense means Russia can shell cities with near impunity. This would *NOT* be the case against NATO, thats for sure.

This is a very weird war - it feels like it should be modern, but it actually isn't. Ukraine has extreme modern weapons in very narrow areas like man-portable missile systems. Russia has modern weapons on paper, but is relying heavily mainly on WWII/Cold-War era equipment and tactics.

I think analysts are going to be writing books about the utterly weird underperformance of the Russian military for decades.
« Last Edit: March 18, 2022, 02:56:20 AM by psyanojim »

dubsartur

  • Citizens
    Voting Member
  • Posts: 1029
  • Karma: 4
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis 2022
« Reply #50 on: March 18, 2022, 04:30:17 AM »
This is a very weird war - it feels like it should be modern, but it actually isn't. Ukraine has extreme modern weapons in very narrow areas like man-portable missile systems. Russia has modern weapons on paper, but is relying heavily mainly on WWII/Cold-War era equipment and tactics.
This might be a good topic for the upcoming chat, but keep in mind that just like the UK and France can't equip their troops as lavishly as the Americans can, most countries can't reach UK standards.  The Canadian Armed Forces currently have no air defense capability other than fixed radars and fighter-bombers.  In a war against anyone with an air force, our air defense would be calling up our allies and asking for cover.  A friend who used to be in the New Zealand army said something similar: "we are equipped to fight insurgents and militias, because that is what we get asked to do."  I think we have pretty good arty, and Leopard II tanks with some upgrades, and our home-made Light Armoured Vehicles, but I am sure there are gaps in our kit if we sent the CAF into a war against a large state.

There is also the giant civil war in Ethiopia, where the Tigrayan rebels seemed to be much better fighters than the government troops despite having less kit.  That also involved massive violence against civilians.
« Last Edit: March 18, 2022, 04:45:11 AM by dubsartur »

psyanojim

  • Posts: 58
  • Karma: 0
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis 2022
« Reply #51 on: March 18, 2022, 04:55:26 AM »
This might be a good topic for the upcoming chat, but keep in mind that just like the UK and France can't equip their troops as lavishly as the Americans can, most countries can't reach UK standards.  The Canadian Armed Forces currently have no air defense capability other than fixed radars and fighter-bombers.  In a war against anyone with an air force, our air defense would be calling up our allies and asking for cover.  A friend who used to be in the New Zealand army said something similar: "we are equipped to fight insurgents and militias, because that is what we get asked to do."  I think we have pretty good arty, and Leopard II tanks with some upgrades, and our home-made Light Armoured Vehicles, but I am sure there are gaps in our kit if we sent the CAF into a war against a large state.
Sure, all militaries have gaps in their capabilities.

But the Russians seem to have gaps in some very basic areas - like RADIOS. They seem to be relying on unencrypted civilian gear. Pictures of Russian soldiers with walkie-talkies that look like they are from Radio Shack. Russian fighter cockpits with civilian GPS systems clamped to the dash. etc. etc.

This is just baffling, and almost certainly contributing hugely to both the Russian lack of coordination, and the Ukranian ability to locate and intercept specific high-value targets like Russian generals.

And seeing pictures of Ukranian infantry is like browsing some kind of bizarre multi-century arms catalog. Cutting edge missile weapons being carried alongside random rusty Cold-War surplus gear and 1930s-era Tommy Guns.
« Last Edit: March 18, 2022, 05:03:07 AM by psyanojim »

dubsartur

  • Citizens
    Voting Member
  • Posts: 1029
  • Karma: 4
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis 2022
« Reply #52 on: March 18, 2022, 05:08:54 AM »
This might be a good topic for the upcoming chat, but keep in mind that just like the UK and France can't equip their troops as lavishly as the Americans can, most countries can't reach UK standards.  The Canadian Armed Forces currently have no air defense capability other than fixed radars and fighter-bombers.  In a war against anyone with an air force, our air defense would be calling up our allies and asking for cover.  A friend who used to be in the New Zealand army said something similar: "we are equipped to fight insurgents and militias, because that is what we get asked to do."  I think we have pretty good arty, and Leopard II tanks with some upgrades, and our home-made Light Armoured Vehicles, but I am sure there are gaps in our kit if we sent the CAF into a war against a large state.
Sure, all militaries have gaps in their capabilities.

But the Russians seem to have gaps in some very basic areas - like RADIOS. They seem to be relying on unencrypted civilian gear. Pictures of Russian soldiers with walkie-talkies that look like they are from Radio Shack. Russian fighter cockpits with civilian GPS systems clamped to the dash. etc. etc.

This is just baffling, and almost certainly contributing hugely to both the Russian lack of coordination, and the Ukranian ability to locate and intercept specific high-value targets like Russian generals.

And seeing pictures of Ukranian infantry is like browsing some kind of bizarre multi-century arms catalog. Cutting edge missile weapons being carried alongside random rusty Cold-War surplus gear and 1930s-era Tommy Guns.
I agree that its bizarre that a country with a space program can't manage secure coms between its generals and fighter planes and their units or bases!  And its eerily reminiscent of the Battle of Tannenberg where the two Russian colums started sending radio messages back and forth in clear and the Germans realized they could fight one column at a time. 

I have not seen those Thompsons, but I recall that some US National Guard units invaded Iraq carrying old M3 Grease Guns.  And the CAF still use their old Browning HPs because our procurement system makes sloths look agile.  But I am an ancient historian not a modern historian, so I'm not up to speed on all the variations of a Kalashnikov or a RPG.  I think wooden stocks tend to be on older models and newer ones have synthetic stocks?

Jubal

  • Megadux
    Executive Officer
  • Posts: 35495
  • Karma: 140
  • Awards Awarded for oustanding services to Exilian!
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis 2022
« Reply #53 on: March 18, 2022, 01:04:18 PM »
My understanding is that the state of the Russian army is in part because for the last half decade the primary qualification to be a senior Russian military type has been "can you keep both Putin and the Oligarchs happy" not "can you run and supply an army effectively". Russia essentially retains some of the political weaknesses of autocracies, and a big tendency to do things for show rather than effectiveness.

I guess there are some questions here about what a "normal" war is these days, given it almost never is symmetrical any more. I see the point psyanojim makes about the weird mismatches of capabilities, but I feel like expectations of matched capabilities may be entirely a thing of the past anyway (with the one exception of nuclear weapons where the biggest powers all hit "world destruction" in their capability and there's not much point getting far above that). But it feels like for non-nuclear warfare, the range of capability types and levels is probably far more stratified than at most previous points in history, to the point where it'd be relatively rare not to have a bunch of weird mismatches in any given war one could hypothesise.
The duke, the wanderer, the philosopher, the mariner, the warrior, the strategist, the storyteller, the wizard, the wayfarer...

psyanojim

  • Posts: 58
  • Karma: 0
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis 2022
« Reply #54 on: March 18, 2022, 03:40:02 PM »
Sure, I would always expect some kind of capability mismatch.

What I DONT expect is a country with nuclear weapons, stealth fighters and a space industry to be struggling to provide its troops with basics like radios!

And yeah, we'll see how long this Ukraine inability to counter the Russian city bombardment lasts. The latest tranche of weapon systems being provided by NATO such as starstreak missiles and switchblade drones seem designed to help with this very problem. At the very least, these should give Russian artillery and bombers something to worry about before revealing themselves by firing at militarily low-priority targets anyway...

Jubal

  • Megadux
    Executive Officer
  • Posts: 35495
  • Karma: 140
  • Awards Awarded for oustanding services to Exilian!
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis 2022
« Reply #55 on: March 18, 2022, 03:58:56 PM »
Yeah, that's very fair and it's clear there is a massive specific problem there. We'll see how it unfolds I guess. The amount of pain Russia is inflicting on civilian targets now is just sickening.
The duke, the wanderer, the philosopher, the mariner, the warrior, the strategist, the storyteller, the wizard, the wayfarer...

dubsartur

  • Citizens
    Voting Member
  • Posts: 1029
  • Karma: 4
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis 2022
« Reply #56 on: March 18, 2022, 04:38:48 PM »
One of those dissidents suggests that Ukraine should rent some hostels in Egypt or Turkey and announce that Rusisian troops who surrender and are not suspected of atrocities will be sent there with a special visa for the duration of the war.  He figures that just the prospect of a vacation somewhere warm (instead of spring behind barbed wire near Lviv) would speed up desertion.

My understanding is that the state of the Russian army is in part because for the last half decade the primary qualification to be a senior Russian military type has been "can you keep both Putin and the Oligarchs happy" not "can you run and supply an army effectively". Russia essentially retains some of the political weaknesses of autocracies, and a big tendency to do things for show rather than effectiveness.

I guess there are some questions here about what a "normal" war is these days, given it almost never is symmetrical any more. I see the point psyanojim makes about the weird mismatches of capabilities, but I feel like expectations of matched capabilities may be entirely a thing of the past anyway (with the one exception of nuclear weapons where the biggest powers all hit "world destruction" in their capability and there's not much point getting far above that). But it feels like for non-nuclear warfare, the range of capability types and levels is probably far more stratified than at most previous points in history, to the point where it'd be relatively rare not to have a bunch of weird mismatches in any given war one could hypothesise.
Jubal, one of my professors who studies war since 1914 assigned us this paper which you can probably track down:

Stephen Biddle, "Victory Misunderstood: What the Gulf War Tells Us about the Future of Conflict," International Security, Vol. 21, No. 2 (Autumn, 1996), pp. 139-179

To me, the fact that Russian generals have to come into artillery range to give orders is way more surprising that in a war of hundreds of thousands of troops, a lot of the kit is not the latest and greatest.  Encrypted radio comms is a basic WW II capability (your average tank squadron or infantry company did not have it, but the larger formation they were part of did).  And even in WW I they had runners to go from the commander to the frontlines! 

Mosul ended up looking like Stalingrad even though the airstrikes came from by NATO forces with plenty of guided munitions.

dubsartur

  • Citizens
    Voting Member
  • Posts: 1029
  • Karma: 4
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis 2022
« Reply #57 on: March 21, 2022, 12:59:05 AM »
My go-to US military veteran and professor of military history is tearing his hair out at photos of the Russians digging in in the open, with no attempt to hide the removed earth and vehicle tracks or cover the work against aerial observation.  Apparently, since Duffer's Drift it has become NATO doctine that you stretch out the camoflage nets whenever you stop for more than a few minutes. 

I don't know whether that is lack of kit, lack of training, or pofigism (a lack of regard for one's own or anyone else's life or property).

The Kyiv Independent accuses the Russian proxy states on the Don of conscripting subjects and throwing them into combat without training

I see a claim that Belarusian railway workers are using strikes and sabotage against supplies for the invasion.
« Last Edit: March 21, 2022, 01:40:15 AM by dubsartur »

Jubal

  • Megadux
    Executive Officer
  • Posts: 35495
  • Karma: 140
  • Awards Awarded for oustanding services to Exilian!
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis 2022
« Reply #58 on: March 26, 2022, 06:06:32 PM »
So the news now, and the pretty clear message of the below-linked speech by Russian commanders, is that Russia is now claiming to be refocusing on the east and Donestsk - presumably as an attempted face-save and trying to scale back the war to something achievable. If it is indeed achievable for them, which we'll see, I guess.
https://eng.mil.ru/en/special_operation/news/more.htm?id=12414735@egNews

Zelensky was pretty scathing about the Hungarian government when talking to European officials, which is perhaps interesting.



User AndrejNkv on Twitter posted the following rewritten ditty which I found darkly amusing:
Quote
I am the very model of a Russian Major General
My standing in the battlefield is growing quite untenable
My forces, though equipped and given orders unequivocal
Did not expect the fight to be remotely this reciprocal

I used to have a tank brigade but now I have lost several
My fresh assaults are faltering with battle plans extemporal
I can't recover vehicles but farmers in a tractor can
It's all becoming rather reminiscent of Afghanistan

My ordnance is the best but only half my missiles make it there
I would have thought by now that we would be controllers of the air
But at the rate the snipers work my time here is ephemeral
I am the very model of a Russian Major General!
The duke, the wanderer, the philosopher, the mariner, the warrior, the strategist, the storyteller, the wizard, the wayfarer...

dubsartur

  • Citizens
    Voting Member
  • Posts: 1029
  • Karma: 4
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: Russia/Ukraine Crisis 2022
« Reply #59 on: March 26, 2022, 11:16:07 PM »
So the news now, and the pretty clear message of the below-linked speech by Russian commanders, is that Russia is now claiming to be refocusing on the east and Donestsk - presumably as an attempted face-save and trying to scale back the war to something achievable. If it is indeed achievable for them, which we'll see, I guess.
https://eng.mil.ru/en/special_operation/news/more.htm?id=12414735@egNews
Yes, the problem is that Russian forces in Ukraine have already suffered serious casualties, and they don't have a strategic reserve ready to deploy.  More than 10,000 dead is a lot when you had less than 200,000 troops to start with.  Even if they can extract troops from the northern and southern fronts, they have a long way to travel to the new area of operations, and they are already tired and hungry and disillusioned with lost or broken kit.

In addition, there is a rule of thumb "never reinforce failure."  The attack from the Donbass has failed, and the attack east of Kharkiv hit its logistical limits a few weeks ago.  Maaybe they can take Mariupol but that will take a lot of their remaining infantry.

I don't know if that video of police arresting a passer-by trying to give foreign reporters a pro-Putin statement at the Kremlin is authentic, but it would be a complete change in style for Putin to try to put the nation behind his war.  And I don't know if that would help before the economy collapses from sanctions or the army collapses from sheer bloody ineptitude and lack of manpower to protect its supply lines and hold the areas it is operating in.

I still have not heard anything about proposals to vastly increase NATO munitions production starting yesterday, so there will probably be a "shell crisis" in the spring unless the Russian army collapses by the middle of April.  Some people say the Russians are already running out of guided bombs and missiles.

Edit: and if we want a poem here is one ...

On fut suld be all Scottis weire, // weire = Wehr, defense
By hyll and mosse themself to reare. // reare: roar? an earlier edition has weire “defend”
Lat woods for wallis be bow and speire,
That innymeis do them na deire.
In strait placis gar keep all store,
And byrnen ye planeland thaim before.
Thane sall thai pass away in haist
Wenn that thai find na thing but waist.
With wykes and waykings of the nyght // wyke: wake
And mekill noyis maid on hytht, // mekill: big, large
Thaime sall ye turnen with gret affrai, // affray: fright, alarm
As thai ware chassit with swerd away.
This is the counsall and intent
Of gud King Robert’s testiment.

That was how the Crimean Tartars defeated the Russian invasions in 1687 and 1689.  The Russians have been making the kind of mistakes which you don't need Clausewitz to recognize, you just need a King's Mirror and some folk poetry.  "Don't surround yourself with flatterers who say only what they think you want to hear" is autocrat 101, "hope for the best but plan for the worst" is just as fundamental.
« Last Edit: March 26, 2022, 11:53:19 PM by dubsartur »