Author Topic: US Politics 2022  (Read 7257 times)

Jubal

  • Megadux
    Executive Officer
  • Posts: 35495
  • Karma: 140
  • Awards Awarded for oustanding services to Exilian!
    • View Profile
    • Awards
US Politics 2022
« on: May 03, 2022, 05:45:21 PM »
Somehow this thread hadn't started yet, which I guess shows us that we're not quite in the full Trump news cycle era anymore.

On the other hand, a leaked document suggests that the Supreme Court may well be going to strike down Roe vs. Wade, the decision that established a constitutional right to abortion, so that's pretty horrific. The US does feel like it's in a state where essentially its checks and balances system has broken in ways out of sync with any semblance of democracy, and this feels a fairly landmark moment in that: the vast majority of Americans think some abortions should be legal - only 13% say it should always be illega, which means there probably isn't a single US state where that's a majority view.

There's also of course the midterms looming, where it looks like the environment is Republican-leaning as a result of some dissatisfaction with Biden - he got hit pretty hard politically by the fallout from Kabul and Delta/Omicron, and his ratings have never really recovered. And he's governed from a fairly centrist position (backing away from campaign pledges like forgiveness of student loan debt) which has upset a lot of progressives, whilst it's not really clear who it's conversely satisfied, so that might make it tricky to get the Democrat base to turn out. In general folks I see from the US, and this being me that's mostly Democrat/liberal/left circles, seem to have a pretty despondent outlook at the moment and not feel like their vote is actually getting the things they want done even when they win, which is bad news if you're a party trying to hold power.
The duke, the wanderer, the philosopher, the mariner, the warrior, the strategist, the storyteller, the wizard, the wayfarer...

Jubal

  • Megadux
    Executive Officer
  • Posts: 35495
  • Karma: 140
  • Awards Awarded for oustanding services to Exilian!
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: US Politics 2022
« Reply #1 on: June 24, 2022, 06:02:19 PM »
And it's happened: no constitutional right to control over your own body any more in the US. How utterly horrifying.
The duke, the wanderer, the philosopher, the mariner, the warrior, the strategist, the storyteller, the wizard, the wayfarer...

dubsartur

  • Citizens
    Voting Member
  • Posts: 1029
  • Karma: 4
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: US Politics 2022
« Reply #2 on: June 25, 2022, 06:41:43 PM »
Its unfortunate that since congress became paralyzed (maaybe one big new law per two years), and anything one president decrees the next president can undo, the Supreme Court has become the part of the US federal government which can most effectively make broad, lasting changes in policy.  Because its not really accountable to anything outside itself, either democratically or logically (the US constitution is rooted in 18th century thinking before the administrative state, truly universal human rights, etc. so constitutional law is either barbarous or intellectually shoddy). 

My understanding is that before the late 19th century, it was never a crime in Britain to end a pregnancy before the fetus started to move (the quickening).  So these state laws outlawing all abortion (and drafted federal laws sitting in desk drawers) are barbarous even by 18th century standards.

Edit: many US states are now more restrictive of abortion than the Islamic Republic of Iran and most Arab states.  Enuf said.
« Last Edit: June 26, 2022, 05:10:07 AM by dubsartur »

Jubal

  • Megadux
    Executive Officer
  • Posts: 35495
  • Karma: 140
  • Awards Awarded for oustanding services to Exilian!
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: US Politics 2022
« Reply #3 on: June 27, 2022, 02:14:18 PM »
Yes - I mean, the Supreme Court can very much be held accountable under the US constitution, but only by the aforementioned paralysed congress which isn't going to do it.
The duke, the wanderer, the philosopher, the mariner, the warrior, the strategist, the storyteller, the wizard, the wayfarer...

dubsartur

  • Citizens
    Voting Member
  • Posts: 1029
  • Karma: 4
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: US Politics 2022
« Reply #4 on: June 27, 2022, 05:42:37 PM »
Yes - I mean, the Supreme Court can very much be held accountable under the US constitution, but only by the aforementioned paralysed congress which isn't going to do it.
The only way which comes to mind is article 2, section 4 "The President, Vice President and all civil Officers of the United States, shall be removed from Office on Impeachment for, and Conviction of, Treason, Bribery, or other high Crimes and Misdemeanors."  Maybe the justice whose wife was playing Robertspierre on 6 January and did not recuse himself from a case which turned out to involve her could be impeached, but for the rest being an authoritarian and/or misogynist is not a crime.  Kavanaugh seems to have a mysterious benefactor who helps with financial problems, but I doubt you could turn that into a bribery charge.  And it takes a majority vote among the Representatives and then among the Senators.

Not sure who would have to give their OK for expanding the court, but it would take a solid majority in the Senate to fill those appointments.
« Last Edit: June 27, 2022, 05:52:51 PM by dubsartur »

Jubal

  • Megadux
    Executive Officer
  • Posts: 35495
  • Karma: 140
  • Awards Awarded for oustanding services to Exilian!
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: US Politics 2022
« Reply #5 on: June 27, 2022, 07:34:16 PM »
I think court expansion, as numbers of justices are not specified in the Constitution, is just regular legislation - so if you have enough of a Senate majority to remove the filibuster (which is now dead in the water, it's just a question of who nukes it first), plus a house majority and a president willing to sign off, then you can do it.
The duke, the wanderer, the philosopher, the mariner, the warrior, the strategist, the storyteller, the wizard, the wayfarer...

Jubal

  • Megadux
    Executive Officer
  • Posts: 35495
  • Karma: 140
  • Awards Awarded for oustanding services to Exilian!
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: US Politics 2022
« Reply #6 on: August 03, 2022, 09:16:30 AM »
A rare bit of good news: Kansas blocked a move to strip abortion protections out of its state constitution, by a very large margin.
The duke, the wanderer, the philosopher, the mariner, the warrior, the strategist, the storyteller, the wizard, the wayfarer...

dubsartur

  • Citizens
    Voting Member
  • Posts: 1029
  • Karma: 4
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: US Politics 2022
« Reply #7 on: August 04, 2022, 03:27:12 AM »
One of the many dangers of the minoritarian elements in the current US federal government is that it makes it hard for people to see whether their side really has a majority of force behind it.  As a friend says, Richard III might have kept his throne if he just paid more attention to votes in Parliament.  But there are not many ways to get rid of the current radical Supreme Court in the USA within the law.  The court can be expanded, but under US law those radical justices sit until they die, resign, or are impeached.  And that is a very dangerous situation, because the radical justices will be tempted to keep doing things the rest of the country does not support, and the rest of the country will be looking for ways to get rid of them.

Jubal

  • Megadux
    Executive Officer
  • Posts: 35495
  • Karma: 140
  • Awards Awarded for oustanding services to Exilian!
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: US Politics 2022
« Reply #8 on: August 12, 2022, 11:33:23 AM »
The GOP held a by-election seat in Minnesota last week, by four points - but it was an R+15 seat in its generic partisan lean. The 538 polling average has had Dems squeak ahead on the generic ballot, too. The 538 expected election outcome is still pretty bad for the Democrats, that said - but largely on the basis of modelling that expects that the actual partisan divide on election day will be more like R +4, because Republicans tend to turn out better and the presidential party tends to lose a bit of ground running up to the midterms. So the big question is how much November will look like polling does now, and how much it'll look like the expected reversions to the norm/mean.

The rumour going around on some parts of social media is that the recent raids on Trump's base in Florida were because he had stolen classified nuclear documents. Which could be both figuratively and literally something of a bombshell, I suppose. It'd be rather hard for Republicans to justify to suburban swing voters, at least.
The duke, the wanderer, the philosopher, the mariner, the warrior, the strategist, the storyteller, the wizard, the wayfarer...

Pentagathus

  • King of the Wibulnibs
  • Posts: 2704
  • Karma: 20
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: US Politics 2022
« Reply #9 on: August 12, 2022, 01:40:04 PM »
I find it hard to believe he'd be quite that stupid. But who knows folks??

Jubal

  • Megadux
    Executive Officer
  • Posts: 35495
  • Karma: 140
  • Awards Awarded for oustanding services to Exilian!
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: US Politics 2022
« Reply #10 on: August 24, 2022, 01:31:21 PM »
Well, the stuff that got released included that the raid involved documents that the judge authorising the raid couldn't be told the contents of because he didn't have the clearance, so we'll see where that ends up.

It's really hard to know what's going on at the moment, but there are still signs of firedupness on the D side - they won a special election in upstate New York yesterday by a couple of points in an R+4 leaning seat (partisan lean basically is calculated in the US as "how far ahead would the parties be in an imagined world where they were tied nationally in the polls). And they overperformed even more in another more heavily Republican seat, which the GOP held... but not by much, and it was an R+15 lean. Polls people seem to generally expect that the Democrats will do worse in November than they're doing now off the back of anger at Roe v Wade and Biden finally passing his big climate change bill. But then, that public spending might be starting to trickle out by November, and the abortion issue isn't going anywhere fast, so who knows?
The duke, the wanderer, the philosopher, the mariner, the warrior, the strategist, the storyteller, the wizard, the wayfarer...

Jubal

  • Megadux
    Executive Officer
  • Posts: 35495
  • Karma: 140
  • Awards Awarded for oustanding services to Exilian!
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: US Politics 2022
« Reply #11 on: October 04, 2022, 08:51:54 PM »
So, state of the race, we're like a month out or something...

Senate: Democrats have it at the moment, 50/50 with the Presidency as tiebreaker, so Republicans only need one seat to flip it. As things have panned out it looks like there are two ultra-close races that might give them that seat, in Nevada and in Georgia. Arizona might well have been another pickup chance for them but Democrat Sen. Mark Kelly looks, if not comfortable, clearly in the lead: New Hampshire also doesn't look as good a chance for the GOP as it might otherwise have been. The downside for Republicans is that they have one very likely loss, in Pennsylvania, and polling suggests three other ultra-close races - North Carolina, Wisconsin, and Ohio. So the easiest Republican path right now is probably that they win both NV and GA, securing them the Senate even if they lose Pennsylvania.

House: Republicans are more clearly the favourites to flip it, but models are mostly assuming they'll lose ground and the GOP will end up winning the popular vote by a couple of points: that doesn't have to be far wrong for Ds to win.

General polling etc: has been good for Democrats for a while, but looks like it's edging back towards Republicans a little recently... so we'll see how that continues.
The duke, the wanderer, the philosopher, the mariner, the warrior, the strategist, the storyteller, the wizard, the wayfarer...

Jubal

  • Megadux
    Executive Officer
  • Posts: 35495
  • Karma: 140
  • Awards Awarded for oustanding services to Exilian!
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: US Politics 2022
« Reply #12 on: October 26, 2022, 07:40:30 PM »
Things continue to shift towards Republicans - media narrative hasn't been as good for Democrats which is one of those self-fulfilling prophecy things. Pennsylvania has tightened a LOT, which afaict is largely due to Republicans successfully being very ableist about the Democrat, Fetterman (who's recovering from a stroke) and portraying him as not up to the job. Georgia hasn't tightened so much, so I think the easiest GOP path now might be to hold Pennsylvania and take Nevada. I'm going to say that's a toss-up, and also suggest it doesn't matter a ton.

Why doesn't it matter? Because unless the Democrats win the house AND expland their lead in the Senate, something that'd now require a bunch of polling problems in Democrats' favour, the trajectory of the next two years is pretty similar: that Democrats can get very little done that's non-executive, and will be scrambling to keep the WH in 2024 and hoping to goodness that the margins then are chunky enough that the Republicans don't feel they can just straight-up abolish democracy. Also the Democrats could easily have a rough Senate year in 2024: they've got West Virginia, Michigan, Montana, Nevada, Pennsylvania, Ohio, and Wisconsin to defend, and their best grounds for attack are like... Florida, Indiana, and Texas, which are hardly promising.

So I think the US is probably set for something like deadlock with a seasonal chance of anti-democratic coups for at least the next half-decade, and who knows what it'll look like after that.
The duke, the wanderer, the philosopher, the mariner, the warrior, the strategist, the storyteller, the wizard, the wayfarer...

dubsartur

  • Citizens
    Voting Member
  • Posts: 1029
  • Karma: 4
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: US Politics 2022
« Reply #13 on: October 26, 2022, 11:21:15 PM »
I'm told that Putin used ablism to seize power the first time: the other candidate for President looked like he was winning, so Putin made some calls and the news started to be full of detailed descriptions of the knee surgery the other candidate was about to undergo complete with gory photos.

I'm told that the current congress could lift the debt ceiling (or mint some trillion-dollar coins, lock them in Ft. Knox or similar, and use them as collateral) but to septuagenarians and useful idiots in newsrooms that sounds too radical.

On the subject of media narratives, I doubt that what pass for journalists in the USA will repent until they are in President for Life Scudder's patriotic labour facilities.

Vox magazine has discovered the neo-reactionary bloggers such as Menicus Moldbug (link is to RationalWiki).
« Last Edit: October 26, 2022, 11:30:05 PM by dubsartur »

Jubal

  • Megadux
    Executive Officer
  • Posts: 35495
  • Karma: 140
  • Awards Awarded for oustanding services to Exilian!
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: US Politics 2022
« Reply #14 on: November 07, 2022, 12:12:17 PM »
The end of campaign shift to Republicans looks quite dramatic. But there are a LOT of toss-ups. Shift the polls two points to Republicans and they take a pretty clear sweep including Arizona, Georgia, even New Hampshire. Shift them two points to Democrats and the Democrats keep the house and Senate.

I'm a pessimist and the media narratives about bad news for Democrats keep pumping out as self-fulfilling prophetic utterances so I'm more inclined to bet that the Republicans will steamroller it, but honestly I'm not sure anyone really knows.

The duke, the wanderer, the philosopher, the mariner, the warrior, the strategist, the storyteller, the wizard, the wayfarer...