Yeah. If I wanted to be fair to Labour (I usually don't, but if I did), I'd say there also feels like a competence difference. I do genuinely think that on basic keeping the wheels turning stuff Starmer is likely to be functional in a way that Sunak has failed to be and Sunak's predecessors very definitely haven't been since at least 2016. Tons of Tory MPs seem to be stepping down to leave the sinking ship, so I think it's fair to say they do know they've lost already.
The assumptions that different models are making do make a huge amount of difference to the outcome. Not in terms of who will win, but in terms of whether Labour will fall just shy of 400 seats or break the 500 (!) mark. Blair's big majority in 1997 was 418, the Conservatives in 1931 got 470 but that's rather unique circumstances. A lot depends on tactical voting: you'd expect very high tactical voting in this election, given that a) kicking the Conservatives out is a priority for a lot of people and b) to be frank if you're willing to vote for one boring man in a suit you're probably willing to vote for another, the gap between the opposition parties is much lower than in 2019. I think some models which look better for the Conservatives, like the UK Polling Report model, underestimate tactical voting in that their seat-by-seat results show too many seats with Labour a hair's breadth from winning and a 16 or 20 percent Lib Dem vote which would be pretty odd IMV. OTOH a friend pointed out to me that some models that are exceptionally bad for the Conservatives will assume too efficient a vote distribution for the Lib Dems, on the grounds that there's fewer places to tactically vote Lib Dem and, if you're assuming people vote tactically and balance out the topline numbers, that means you give the Lib Dems a huge amount of squeeze efficiency to make the numbers balance.
I think at the moment if the polls don't change we're looking at a solid 450-470 Labour MPs, 100-120 Tories, maybe 25 each SNP and Lib Dem, and then the NI/PC/Grn/Miscellany. That said, the polls might well change, The Conservative election campaign has had an awkward start in particular and if Sunak falls further then the Tory numbers might drop off even more of a cliff which would lead to an even more eyewatering result.