UK Election: Jubal's Coverage

[DeepComet5581]

Results after 641 of 650 seats:

Conservatives - 302
Labour - 256
Lib Dems - 56
Others - 27

Both Gordon Brown and David Cameron have made statements, saying that they are willing to offer a comprehensive deal to the Liberal Democrats. Both parties will be hoping to capitalise on Electoral Reform, as the Lib Dems are looking for Proportional Representation.

Cameron said he was willing to change the Electoral System, but there are doubts as to whether he will allow PR. If he doesn't, the Lib Dems will not make a deal with them. Labour will capitalise on this and offer PR whether the party wants to or not in order to remain in power.

There is, however, a chance that the Lib Dems will still reject an offer from Labour. This means that Brown remains in power until such a time when a re-election takes place in about September.

[Jubal]

I never said there wasn't a reason why Labour are doing badly, there are many reasons for all these things. They've made many cock-ups, Iraq and the WMD, atrocious civil liberties record, a leader who isn't media-savvy. However, things certainly havn't been poll--bad over the past 13 years, generally the country has got on with life and done alright. For a lot of less well off people who suddenly finding their taxes going to an inheritance tax cut for millionaires and their children deprived of EMA entirely (as 2 smallish examples), life is going to get tougher if the Tories can make a government out of this mess.

I think the real thing this proves is that we need electoral reform though. A party polling nearly 25% of the votes and only getting 1 in 7 seats is appalling showing the disenfranchisement of Liberal, Labour and Conservative supporters up and down the country in seats of all colours, simply by the first past the post system beating the voter.

I can't imagine Cameron will offer a PR referendum though, it'd screw the Tories by giving the Liberals a very real chance in many areas and boosting the profile and potential of many of the smaller parties to the left (I'd expect a permanent Respect and Green presence at Westminster). I've no idea what Clegg will do really, considering my certainity on that matter.

[Goldyrulz]

Results after 649 of 650:

Conservatives - 306
Labour - 258
Lib Dems - 57
Other - 28

The last constituency hasn't had its polls for some reason (think an MP died???) so this is basically the final result for the moment.
So it is a hung parliament with Tories with a majority and now anything can happen.

Cameron and Clegg have supposedly just talked on the phone about a possible coalition and at the moment, it seems to be the main deal that is going on.

Anyway, things will become very interesting over the weekend as any stalling will certainly affect our economy big time, especially as the Ftse dropped 1.5% when it opened and has now dropped 2.6% at this time.

So whatever they end up doing, hurry it up!

[DeepComet5581]

Labour have an even less chance of calling a referendum on Proportional Representation, as they will never win an election, ever again. They only do well in elections because of the number of seats, due to there being SO MANY in London and the North.

I don't think either party will be able to do a deal with the Lib Dems, and it will just go to a re-election, which the Tories will win.

What I love is that the Tories met their prediction exactly but Labour fell short. Boris Johnson has said that the electorate has punished all 3 parties. The Tories by not allowing them a landslide, the Lib Dems by holding them back and Labour by giving them the most crushing rejection since 1931, when it was just Labour and Tories.

The final constituency has foregone it's count until May 27th due to the death of the UKIP candidate. Under regulations, voting has to be halted until a new candidate can be found. This doesn't apply to independent candidates not tied to a party.

[Jubal]

I'm not wholly sure that the Tories would win a second election any more than this one; certainly the Liberals would go into meltdown as the party funding systems mean that the Tories still have vast warchests to fight with and the LDs are out of cash. I also disagree that Labour will never again win an election, unless of course they introduce PR in which case nobody will ever again "win" an election in the old sense. They have been punished for being the incumbents, and their vote share is pathetic (although Cameron has NO right to complain about that unless he supports PR), and the electorate has given Cameron more support than any other party enjoys. On the other hand, a lot of the Northern seats are still very solidly Labour despite the big swings to the Conservatives, and as for Scotland the Conservatives actually had swings against them to Labour there.

It may of course be a long time before Labour returns to power, but they remain one of the main parties in UK politics just as much as the Tories were in 1997. It took the latter party 13 years to come back and they still don't have a majority, but come back they have. For Labour it may take just as long, but come back - one day - they will. I'm not a Labour, supporter, mind; it's just an inherent fact of first past the post.

That's all under 1st past the post, though. Really, no party has gained the confidence of the electorate and a Lib/Con or Lib/Lab coalition or arrangement is the only way to go. I have to disagree with the calls that a Lib/Lab coalition is somehow undemocratic because the Conservatives had more seats and more votes. If Cameron is unwilling to co-operate properly with Clegg for a government, he doesn't deserve to be able to form one. Lab + Lib is still over 50% of the total vote, and thus the parties in it would still have the backing of over half the electorate (which is a perfectly valid mandate to govern on) compared to just 36% backing Cameron. A Lib/Con pact looks more likely at the moment though, which would of course be even more appreciated by a higher percentage of the electorate (for all that I'd be gritting my teeth). I just hope and pray that Clegg can hold out for a PR referendum though, so we never again see figures like these...

Labour 33,350 votes per seat, Conservative 34,989 votes per seat, Lib Dems 119,788 votes per seat, Greens 285,616 votes per seat, UKIP 917,832 votes no seats.
...Democracy?

[Goldyrulz]

OMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMGOMG!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!!

Breaking News right now!

Gordon Brown is stepping down as Labour leader!

HAHAHAHAHA someone could not take it anymore!

Now the debate at Labour HQ will not be to form a coalition with the Lib Dems but who is the next leader!

[Jubal]

PLEASE, Nick, now listen to your supporters.

[Goldyrulz]

Politics goes a long way in one evening, you know.

Gordon Brown has officially resigned and is on his way to the Queen to tell her that he is off back to Scotland and that she should (reluctantly) make David Cameron the PM.

Change is on the way!

Also, the Lib Dems and Tories are "very, very close" according to Vince Cable to signing a coalition which could see as many as 6 Lib Dems in the Cabinet. Now that does seem quite a lot....

Oh well, hopefully it is change for the better.... the next 3 months will certainly be terrifying though...........

[Jubal]

Bugrit.  

[Goldyrulz]

When Cameron and Clegg both stood outside 10 Downing Street this morning before their speech together, did anyone else see how the kinda look like each other.

[Jubal]

Public schoolboys, both of them. From two of the most exclusive schools in the UK.

Politics in 2010 in a developed country is still wholly public-school dominated. THAT is something of an indictment on us.