World Politics and Elections 2025

[Jubal]

Here we go again.

A much less election heavy year though there are some big ones coming up - for example Germany, Canada, and Australia, all three of which look like good prospects for right wing challengers to centre left governments struggling with cost of living issues.

We'll also likely start seeing the impacts of various 2024 elections more, especially re the course of the new US administration and how that affects the wider world.

[dubsartur]

This essay by Emmet Macfarlane goes over how the Prime Minister (elected by party members) and his apponinted Office have come to marginalize both parliament and the cabinet ministers in Canada https://emmettmacfarlane.substack.com/p/how-canadian-political-parties-select

Parliament has been prorogued until March 24 and an election is likely to be called shortly thereafter.  This will result in a Conservative majority and the Liberals holding just a few seats in big cities and parts of the Maritimes, but how many seats and with whom as leader can still be decided.  To change that outcome Justin Trudeau would have had to resign in summer 2023 and given the widespread anti-incumbent turn (and lukewarm enthusiasm for the Liberals) the Tories would almost certainly have formed the next government anyways.

[Jubal]

Also re Canada, I've seen that former Bank of England governor Mark Carney is running to lead the Liberal Party: it feels like leading a party into a more or less certain electoral defeat seems a pretty thankless task to be running for.

[dubsartur]

Also re Canada, I've seen that former Bank of England governor Mark Carney is running to lead the Liberal Party: it feels like leading a party into a more or less certain electoral defeat seems a pretty thankless task to be running for.

I sure don't understand why anyone would want to be Liberal leader under the circumstances. I think that tossing Trudeau was good for MPs as citizens (he works for them, not vice versa) but the new PM will promptly lose an election then be blamed by the rest of the party.

When a former Conservative staffer was asked to write on how the election could be later than May, he had to start "well, what if the new PM offers the NDP something to vote confidence, and then what if they pass a bill to overrule the Fixed-Term Election Act ..."  Not very plausible.