The Arab Spring

[Jubal]

Egypt, Tunisia, Libya... who's next?

What do y'all think of the prospects of a more democratic Islamic world?

[Andalus]

According to Ned O'Keefe, a crazy Cork politician, Ireland could be next.

But seriously, well, aside from the successful oustings in Tunisia and Egypt, there have been other governmental changes for the better in countries like Jordan. The whole of the region is affected in some way, and there's no telling when this will die down.

I found the colour-coded map from Wikipedia quite interetsing. It also shows the vast area covered by MENA states, which count for something like 6% of the world population.



One thing that is also noticable is the unprecented nature of the ripples. Waves of uprising have been feared throughout history, from the French Revolution to Communism, and have never quite lived up to the expected hype. This wave of protests is unprecedented, and it's notable that they are also democratic. They are not about killing kings and tzars, or changing the shape of society, they are about simple freedom and a fair consitution. The numbers in Egypt were comparable to Russia in 1917 or Iran in 1979, but peaceful and non-violent.

I think this is a good thing. This will change the face of the Islamic world forever (for better or worse), but I think that however the dust settles, a powerful message has been sent. A very meaningul phrase that was spoken on Al Jazeera English was "Democracy is in the eye of the beholder." I heard that and felt truer words were never spoken. We in Europe or America may find that the end results of the changes there are not to our liking, but democracy is about self-determination, letting the people of a nation choose who they wish to lead them. It is not about who the leaders of other countries think should be in charge.

[Jubal]

I wonder if the communists would have achieved more of a domino effect in 1917 if they had the internet...

What are the colours on the map, Andalus?

EDIT: Found 'em. For those who don't know, green=fine, yellow = minor protests, orange = major protests, bright red = reform, dark red = REVOLUSHUN!

[Andalus]

Whoops, yeah, forget to include the colour key. :$

I wonder if the communists would have achieved more of a domino effect in 1917 if they had the internet...

A valid ponderance. Although the time when the domino effect was more feared was after WW2 when the USSR was hugely powerful, China had fallen to the red flag, and colonial rule was collapsing to form young fragile states. Internet point still stands, though. Same again with Iran's Islamic Revolution that was as feared by the Russians as Communism by the Americans. The internet is a powerful, borderless tool for spreading flames. This borderless community that the internet creates is a key part of why the world is changing in this way.

[Goldyrulz]

Libya Latest

This is currently Libya's situation. The demonstrators have finally gained control for the East and now they are fighting Gaddafi and his few, but dangerous loyal supporters in the West. Tripoli is looking exceedingly dangerous and most of the massacre has happened there. It says 300 are dead but I would have thought, as do many others, that that figure is now way out of what the actual figure is. The only problem is is that Gaddafi has already said in an hour long speech, that he will try to hold on to power. He has vowed to "crush the revolt and die as a martyr".
Stubborn bugga is all I can say. Soon though, he shall be dead. The main symbol for this demonstration is the Pre-Gaddafi Libyan flag.

I wonder though, how long will this go on for.

And on another slightly rtelated note, how long does it take to get some aeroplanes from Britain to Libya? At the moment, for us it seems to be taking a couple of months!..... Most countries have either already sent planes over and are either home or in the air on the way home, while other countires have used their militray planes. Ours haven't even got off the ground yet! So darn embarrassing....

[Jubal]

From Gadaffi tonight;
"There are people who've been in power longer than me - like Queen Elizabeth of Britain. And nothing's happened to her."

Oil: $96.70/barrel. Running cost of HMS Cumberland:

[comrade_general]

From Gadaffi tonight;
"There are people who've been in power longer than me - like Queen Elizabeth of Britain. And nothing's happened to her."

http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=P0gqxqOSSw0

Seth Rogen's line comes directly to mind.

[comrade_general]

Did you notice the map has changed?

Mubarak down, Gaddafi next.

[debux]

Why does RTW come to my mind when talking about Lybians and casualty numbers?

Jokes aside, I wish I could get better coverage of this. TV stations think that reality shows are faaaar more interesting than news. Even the news is mostly about that. I hate being proactive

I thought Mubarak had stepped down a long time ago, around the beginning of February

[Jubal]

Yeah, Mubarak's long gone, as was that Tunisian guy who ran away at the start of it all.

The question is really how long Gadaffi can hold out - he may not have much time. Unless he can take the rebels out fast his lack of resources and international support will slowly but surely push the tide against him. Slowly, surely, and sadly bloodily, that is.

[comrade_general]

I still think it's cool that the map is updating itself. 8D

I cannot believe someone like Gaddafi is still in power. For instance, you Britons could simply send in an assassin (Jamus Bondus) and execute him at any time; the success rate has to be 95% at least.

[Dimos]

[Jubal]

Libya seems to be descending into a very fast-moving civil war; the main question is whether Gadaffi can actually secure his base in the West before the rebels manage to take Sirte and the vital oilfields.

If I were Gadaffi, I have to say that I'd be working a damn sight harder than I am now on this. He's keeping a lot of troops in reserve, when in fact strategically his only hope lies in speed. His Khamis brigade, apparently capable of creating a football-pitch sized firestorm in a very short space of time with their heavy armaments, is being kept back in Tripoli when really he can't win without using every bit of that firepower to smash the rebels aside. Instead he's relying on far less well equipped regulars and mercenaries who simply won't be able to displace the rebels before the international embargos on money and supplies begin to turn the tide in their favour decisively.

[Son of the King]

Flatmates...

i think that perhaps that should be a marxist revolution for the benefit of the people

[Jubal]

Ras Lanuf is down, Gadaffi seems to be utilising much more of his firepower now.  :-/