Author Topic: UK Elections 2015  (Read 32357 times)

Jubal

  • Megadux
    Executive Officer
  • Posts: 35492
  • Karma: 140
  • Awards Awarded for oustanding services to Exilian!
    • View Profile
    • Awards
UK Elections 2015
« on: January 04, 2015, 06:03:31 PM »
Here we go, the thread to dominate the run-up to the GENERAL ELECTION 2015!



As of right now, here's where we stand;

THE BACKSTORY
  • Since 2010, the UK has been run by a coalition of the Conservatives and the smaller Liberal Democrat party, with Labour as the main opposition
  • The government's programme has involved very significant cuts to public services to bring down the deficit in the budget. Opinions differ significantly as to how effective this austerity programme has been; its supporters claim it has delivered fair but difficult cuts, its opponents claim it has strangled the possibility of stronger growth whilst hurting many of the poorest members of society.
  • The worst casualties have been the Liberals, whose support has dropped from around 20% to under 10% of the vote. In particular, they have been derided for going back on 2010 manifesto pledges, and most crucially their pledge to abolish tuition fees - all Lib Dem MPs signed a personal pledge against raising fees, but half of them went back on that in order to vote with the government on raising the cap to £9000 per year in 2010.
  • The Conservatives have also lost support since 2010, and also face an electoral system that tends to favour Labour - Labour's support is more evenly distributed, which means that for the same number of votes their opponents tend to get more seats. They hold a reasonably steady percentage of the vote at just under a third, but this may well be insufficient to remain as the largest party, let alone form a majority.
  • Labour, meanwhile, have their own problems. Poor opinion ratings for their leader, Ed Miliband, may have dragged them down significantly in the polls. Whilst they have managed to hold narrow polling leads over the Conservatives, sitting at around a third of the vote, their lead has been slipping away over the last two years, and it looks increasingly unlikely that they'll manage to win a majority either, not least thanks to...
  • ...the SNP, one of the big winners at the moment in the polls. Whilst they failed to win their referendum on Scots independence, they are now riding high at over 40% of the vote in Westminster polling in Scotland - the 45% who voted for independence have fallen heavily behind the SNP since the referendum. This could hand them as many as forty new seats, on an average swing, giving them a large majority of seats north of the border and making them potentially the third largest party in Parliament.
  • UKIP are also looking stronger than ever, having surged into third place in the polls since 2010. They've taken voters from both Labour and the Conservatives across the country, with two Tory defectors having given them their first real sitting MPs. Whilst their vote share is impressive, though, they may struggle to take significant numbers of seats as a result of its relatively even distribution. Their best bets are mainly poorer, socially conservative coastal seats in the south and east - where their mainly white, working class vote feels socially marginalised and alienated from the "metropolitan" leadership of Labour and the Conservatives. Whilst their most likely wins are against the Conservatives in the south, they are also looking to make gains in the North, replacing the Conservatives as the main challenger to Labour in many areas and putting themselves in position for more wins in 2020.
  • The Greens are the other major party to look at. Whilst sluggish for most of this parliament, in 2014 the European elections caused a real upward trend in their membership and support, giving them some of their best opinion polling numbers in years and putting them ahead of the Lib Dems in the polls at times. They will mainly be looking to hold their single parliamentary seat, Brighton Pavilion, in the election - though they will push forward to target other Labour and Liberal seats including Norwich South, Bristol West, and Sheffield Central.
  • A brief run-down of the rest of the playing field. Plaid Cymru, the welsh nationalists, have made few advances in recent years and are likely to be relatively stable in their support, concentrated in the Welsh-speaking regions of west Wales. The speaker, John Bercow, is likely to be unopposed in his seat of Buckingham.
  • Northern Ireland contributes MPs from its own, different, parties. On the Republican side Sinn Fein, the larger party, traditionally refuse to take their seats at Westminster, whereas the smaller SDLP tend to vote with Labour, adding two or three to their total. On the Unionist side, the Ulster Unionists are close to the Conservatives but failed to win any seats in 2010; the more extreme DUP tend to lean to the right too and contribute most of Northern Ireland's presence in Parliament. The small Alliance Party is affiliated with the Liberals; it is likely to be a tough fight against the DUP for their single MP to hold her seat in Belfast.



WHERE WE STAND: JANUARY 2015

These tables exclude Northern Irish seats. Note that 326 seats is an official majority in the UK Parliament, though around five Sinn Fein members will not take their seats lowering the actual total needed to closer to 320.
PartyConservativesLabourLib DemsUKIPGreensSNPOther
2010 Seats306258570164
Current Seats303257562168
Current polls range*28-3431-365-1412-19---
Current polls average*31348155--
UNS Result**2473152100454
Jubal's Estimated Result***2752913051273

* The lack of polling figures for the SNP and Greens is because I'd need to actually mine them out of the tables - they're often not specifically prompted for in topline figures.
** This includes a recent separate poll for Scotland that gave Scots opinion figures at CON 13%, LAB 26%, LDEM 6%, SNP 43%, UKIP 7%, GRN 4%.
*** Much of this is off-the-cuff conjecture on my part, but I am including a lot of more detailed information, eg from local polls showing that the Lib Dems will hold up a bit better where they have MPs than would be predicted from the national picture (the flip side of which is they're doing even worse elsewhere, creating large "Liberal Deserts" in areas of the country.



So, what do y'all think will happen? Who are you backing?
« Last Edit: January 04, 2015, 06:53:57 PM by Jubal »
The duke, the wanderer, the philosopher, the mariner, the warrior, the strategist, the storyteller, the wizard, the wayfarer...

Pentagathus

  • King of the Wibulnibs
  • Posts: 2704
  • Karma: 20
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: UK Elections 2015
« Reply #1 on: January 04, 2015, 06:45:56 PM »
I'm not even sure where I should vote.

Jubal

  • Megadux
    Executive Officer
  • Posts: 35492
  • Karma: 140
  • Awards Awarded for oustanding services to Exilian!
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: UK Elections 2015
« Reply #2 on: January 04, 2015, 06:53:04 PM »
Well, if you vote in Norfolk you'll just be wasting your ballot, if that helps. :P

Aberdeen could be quite a tight Lab/SNP fight if current polls are anything to go by.
The duke, the wanderer, the philosopher, the mariner, the warrior, the strategist, the storyteller, the wizard, the wayfarer...

Clockwork

  • Charming Prince of Darkness
  • Citizens
    Voting Member
  • Posts: 2055
  • Karma: 17
  • Bitter? Me? portugal no, I think it's hilarious.
  • Awards Came first in the Summer 2020 Exilian forum pub quiz
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: UK Elections 2015
« Reply #3 on: January 04, 2015, 08:02:55 PM »
Pretty much as expected, I'd say UKIP might do a little better than forecast, but not much. SNP I think will lose it's popularity over the course of the next year in favour of Labour which could mean a strong Labour in 2016.
Once you realize what a joke everything is, being the Comedian is the only thing that makes sense.


Jubal

  • Megadux
    Executive Officer
  • Posts: 35492
  • Karma: 140
  • Awards Awarded for oustanding services to Exilian!
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: UK Elections 2015
« Reply #4 on: January 04, 2015, 10:18:59 PM »
Yeah. My estimate has UKIP winning Thurrock, Rochester & Strood, Clacton, Thanet South, and Boston & Skegness. They have a few other chances - I don't think Rochester & Strood or Thurrock are at all certain, but Yarmouth, Grimsby, or Castle Point might also throw up a less expected win. I'm partly assuming they'll be hit a bit in the next few months; Labour and the Conservatives will try and make the election as binary as possible, and that combined with their larger funds & electoral machines could well squeeze a few points off UKIP.

As to the SNP, hell only knows. We've only had national polls since the referendum; when we have Lord Ashcroft's constituency polls for Scotland we'll have a far better idea of the state of play. Labour only need to peg them back to about 35% to be returning a good majority of Scotland's seats, but that's still around a 10% swing to achieve in the space of only a few months. There's also the question of whether SNP voters will actually vote differently in their constituencies - incumbency might narrowly save quite a few Labour and Lib Dem MPs and slow down the SNP advance somewhat. If Labour can really break back in Scotland, they have a slim but workable chance of a majority, but attacking Lab/SNP votes (often very leftwing Scots) and Lab/Con votes (centrist Middle Englanders) in the same campaign is a hell of a balancing act.
The duke, the wanderer, the philosopher, the mariner, the warrior, the strategist, the storyteller, the wizard, the wayfarer...

TTG4

  • Citizens
    Voting Member
  • Posts: 416
  • Karma: 4
  • Plants are my passion!
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: UK Elections 2015
« Reply #5 on: January 04, 2015, 11:28:26 PM »
I've looked up my current seats results from 2010, Norwich North. Con gain from lab with only about 10% of the vote going to the lib dems. So although I agree most with the Lib Dems it seems like I'd be better off aiming for a Labour candidate to attempt to stop the tories.

As for what I actually expect to happen, I think Jub's potentially over-estimated the Lib Dem seats at the expense of the greens. I wouldn't be surprised if they manage to gain some more seats, young left wing people seem to be moving to them when they previously would have gone lib dem.

As for who'll be in power, not a clue, the SNP have said they'll never do a deal with the Tories, though I suspect if they promise another referendum as part of a coalition agreement they might take it. If Jub is right then a lib:lab coalition could be a majority, which I'd be a fan of.

Jubal

  • Megadux
    Executive Officer
  • Posts: 35492
  • Karma: 140
  • Awards Awarded for oustanding services to Exilian!
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: UK Elections 2015
« Reply #6 on: January 05, 2015, 12:26:39 AM »
The question, if the Greens were going to make more gains, is "where?"

Two of their possibilities are Bristol West and Norwich South, both currently LD held with large student bodies. But Bristol W is held by a very popular Liberal incumbent with a staggeringly large majority and a strong Labour challenge to compete with, and Norwich South we have a poll from that shows Labour absolutely streets ahead, having narrowly missed out to the Lib Dems last time and taking a large chunk of their vote now. In Cambridge, the only other LD held Green target, the Greens have fallen back locally since 2010 at Labour's expense. So if I've underestimated the Greens, I don't think it was at the Liberals' expense in terms of seats; certainly the LDs will lose a lot of votes to the Greens, but in most Lib Dem seats either the LDs are too entrenched and the Greens are just tussling to take off disaffected votes that would otherwise help mount a Labour challenge, or Labour have managed to anchor themselves as challengers, or most importantly in many cases they're not actually studenty seats at all.

Students will swing to the Greens, I don't doubt, but with FPTP that won't be enough to gain them seats unless they can take a lot of local city votes as well as galvanising students. Students have notoriously low turnout and the Greens just haven't got the publicity, voter base, and traction to take the city voters they need in sufficient quantities in any one seat, most of whom they need to take from Labour.

Norwich N is certainly a Con/Lab marginal - well worth voting Labour if you want to remove the Tory. The city areas are solid Labour and form a lot of the less university-based and some of the less well heeled bits of Norwich, but the seat also spreads out into some rural wards that are rock solid Tory. UKIP might make a small dent but it'd be an equal dent in both sides, and there's none of the more leafy, educated, or touristy areas that tend to be naturally more liberal.
The duke, the wanderer, the philosopher, the mariner, the warrior, the strategist, the storyteller, the wizard, the wayfarer...

Clockwork

  • Charming Prince of Darkness
  • Citizens
    Voting Member
  • Posts: 2055
  • Karma: 17
  • Bitter? Me? portugal no, I think it's hilarious.
  • Awards Came first in the Summer 2020 Exilian forum pub quiz
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: UK Elections 2015
« Reply #7 on: January 05, 2015, 03:49:23 AM »
Greens don't, won't and shouldn't get anywhere because they're as laughable as the BNP. They'd bring any country to absolute ruin.

Traditionally Lib voters will be reminded closer to the election that the Libs in coalition went back on this that or the other, though whether that makes much difference I don't want to guess. Lab might do better than expected due to people looking past Ed being rubbish.

Will vote for anyone that uses this in their election speech. Twice. One of the most profound and heartfelt speeches ever made.
Starts 28 seconds in.
« Last Edit: January 05, 2015, 08:23:23 AM by Colossus »
Once you realize what a joke everything is, being the Comedian is the only thing that makes sense.


Jubal

  • Megadux
    Executive Officer
  • Posts: 35492
  • Karma: 140
  • Awards Awarded for oustanding services to Exilian!
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: UK Elections 2015
« Reply #8 on: January 05, 2015, 12:44:14 PM »
I disagree on the Greens, as you'd expect - I wouldn't mind if they had 20 odd MPs, whereas I just want the BNP to be smashed and pulped into total oblivion. I do think a Green government would be pretty bad, and their policies are very ill conceived, but they're not fundamentally evil and they're a reasonable voice for a few specific issues.

I actually suspect that the Liberals will claw some votes back towards the election in their defended seats, as their local MPs will be massively turning on the taps and if there's one thing the Lib Dems are bloody good at, it's local campaigning (affectionately known as "dogarmadillo politics" by some psephologists). There's another factor to consider, though: Labour want to take seats off the Lib Dems, but damaging them *too much* will hurt Labour too. Labour are already likely to win most Lib Dem facing seats; if they push the LD vote down further, all that happens is that Labour defections lose the LDs seats in areas Labour could never challenge for anyway. Result, the Tories get a boost towards being the largest party. Far more LD seats are Tory-facing than Labour-facing.
The duke, the wanderer, the philosopher, the mariner, the warrior, the strategist, the storyteller, the wizard, the wayfarer...

Pentagathus

  • King of the Wibulnibs
  • Posts: 2704
  • Karma: 20
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: UK Elections 2015
« Reply #9 on: January 05, 2015, 03:15:58 PM »
portugal I hate our voting system, I don't want to vote for anyone who actually has a chance of winning seats in the constituencies I can vote in. Guess I'll probably vote SNP up here, although I'm disinclined to do so since I don't want Scotland to become independent or to gain additional powers. Bluuurgh.

Gen_Glory

  • Patrikios
    Voting Member
  • Posts: 3106
  • Karma: 11
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: UK Elections 2015
« Reply #10 on: January 05, 2015, 03:24:13 PM »
Is there any chance of another referendum on independence? Or is the focus now on more devolved powers?
Tis but a scratch...


Jubal

  • Megadux
    Executive Officer
  • Posts: 35492
  • Karma: 140
  • Awards Awarded for oustanding services to Exilian!
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: UK Elections 2015
« Reply #11 on: January 05, 2015, 03:25:25 PM »
Are you in Aberdeen N or S? Voting LD in South might not be too bad a waste long term, though they won't win this time certainly.

DD: The current SNP plan is to call another referendum as soon as they get an excuse to, with an EU exit being seen as their best chance of a good excuse.
The duke, the wanderer, the philosopher, the mariner, the warrior, the strategist, the storyteller, the wizard, the wayfarer...

TTG4

  • Citizens
    Voting Member
  • Posts: 416
  • Karma: 4
  • Plants are my passion!
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: UK Elections 2015
« Reply #12 on: January 05, 2015, 07:49:28 PM »
DD: The current SNP plan is to call another referendum as soon as they get an excuse to, with an EU exit being seen as their best chance of a good excuse.

Yeah it's being referred to as the neverendum by some commentators. They went on and on about how they'd respect the result, but clearly campaigning to do it again is respecting it somehow.

Pentagathus

  • King of the Wibulnibs
  • Posts: 2704
  • Karma: 20
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: UK Elections 2015
« Reply #13 on: January 05, 2015, 08:28:31 PM »
I'm in the north of aberdeen. Well actually I haven't checked the constituency but since I live very much donside rather than deeside I'm certain it'l be North.

Glaurung

  • Sakellarios
    Financial Officer
  • Posts: 7077
  • Karma: 20
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: UK Elections 2015
« Reply #14 on: January 23, 2015, 10:51:31 PM »
Here's another BBC commentary article. They've come up with four different (but similar) compositions of the House of Commons after the next election, and asked four political commentators to work out what happens next, one scenario per commentator. No party gets a majority; every scenario results in a coalition government, and most of them look unstable and unlikely to last very long.

The next election looks like being the most unpredictable one for many years.

On a related note, I would encourage any Exilian member who will have the right to vote in this year's UK general election to ensure that they are registered to do so. To a first approximation, this means any UK citizen aged 18 or over on 7 May, the day of the election. You can register on-line or by post.