Paris Terror Attacks

[comrade_general]

I'm sure everyone has heard about France.
Seems the refugee thing has finally backfired. I don't mean to sound heartless but we all knew something like this was going to happen.

[Glaurung]

I don't want to be argumentative about something as evil as this. However, we don't yet seem to know anything about who did this or where they were from. It could easily have been "home-grown", as the 7 July 2005 attacks in London were. I expect the French authorities will have some answers quite soon - could we wait for them, please?

[Jubal]

I think you folk probably know my views without me expressing them by this point.

Suffice to say that I'm sickened by the killing, and we should definitely assess whether we're doing enough to counter radicalisation as a result of it. I'm also on the other hand terrified that western Europe is going to continue shedding, in fear of terrorism, the very openness and liberties that are what really differentiates us from the fundamentalists.

I also think that linking it to "the refugee thing" is spurious at best, and indeed is probably high on the list of aims that IS had here in the first place. Sowing fear and division and hatred is precisely the aim of these sorts of attacks, alienating and reacting against western muslim communities and refugees (the large majority of whom are only in Europe because they're fleeing Islamic fundamentalism) is a major win for the terrorists here.

[Clockwork]

I'm sure everyone has heard about France.
Seems the refugee thing has finally backfired. I don't mean to sound heartless but we all knew something like this was going to happen.

On phone so I'll be brief. /agree.

[comrade_general]

It's just too perfect of a Trojan horse. Everyone is welcoming these refugees with open arms, so easy for ISIS to slip a few guys in there, especially since reports say the majority of the refugees are males of fighting age. Don't be so naive. Everyone except Obama KNEW this would happen sooner or later. And how useless is he? The morning BEFORE the attack: "durr ISIS is contained". Maybe now everyone will quit portugaling around and destroy them like the cancer they are.

Sorry I don't want to start an argument. We shouldn't be fighting amongst ourselves when we have a common enemy. Just angry.

[Jubal]

I'm not disagreeing that we should ideally have done a lot more to stop IS sooner, though bombing campaigns won't work and I'm unconvinced that a ground war would be successful in the long run either unless you guys are up for occupying half the middle east for a couple of decades minimum. Islamic extremism won't die because we keep shooting it, any more than any other ideology does, and I don't think we're doing enough to counteract people getting radicalised in the first place and stop the flow of fighters to IS.

As for refugees, I'm pretty sure IS could get people into France regardless of the refugee crisis. I mean, sure, it's always been likely that with the rise of IS they'd manage at some point to get a terror attack off, but I don't think that realistically there's an obvious correlation between terrorism and refugee numbers - if there was, we'd expect IS to be making more attacks further east where refugee numbers are vastly higher for one thing. France has taken comparatively few refugees compared to Greece, Germany, or Sweden, for example. I don't think there's a good argument for us being less humane to refugees as a result of this; not least because the other option is probably cooping refugees up on Aegean islands until they die in filthy and underfunded massed camps, which would be a complete gift to IS recruitment.

Essentially I'm very reluctant to shed so much of the open-ness and freedom that is what I most value about western countries in the name of decreasing the likelihood of terror attacks; I don't think it's an effective strategy and, worse, I feel like it's letting IS get what they want from us.

I do agree with Glaurung though that it's not work deconstructing this too much before we get any reports on how the attack really happened. I mean, we know it was an IS attack, but I don't think we yet have a clear enough idea of who these fighters were, how they were trained and armed, etc, to make detailed conclusions beyond a certain point. And yeah, I appreciate/share the anger, IS are probably the most horrendous group in the world today and it's really frustrating seeing them do things like this and not having any way to do anything about it. 

[comrade_general]

Aye no one should lose any freedoms after something like this. These problems are all rooted in the same lack of humanity, dismal attitude, and total warping of reality in the minds of these "people".

[comrade_general]

Vive la France! Our first and oldest ally. Helped us out when we were just rebel scum.

[Jubal]

Hollande apparently wants to put France in a state of emergency for three months, which seems excessive even in the face of this. Also looks like the French may be throwing more airstrikes into Syria. I have a cynical suspicion that FH may be trying to do a leftwing Thatcher (aka war -> public opinion surge -> win elections).

News on the terrorists: there's some evidence now (not unexpectedly) that a couple of them may have come in via the refugee route, notably a faked Syrian passport discovered near one of them. It looks like these were only additional manpower though, with the majority of the planning, obtaining weapons, etc having happened in Belgium and French & Belgian nationals making up most of the group.

[comrade_general]

I'm surprised they haven't surrendered to anyone yet. What would you do?

[Jubal]

What would I do about what?

[comrade_general]

If you were prez?

[Jubal]

Oh! I'm not necessarily suggesting that air strikes are the wrong option militarily; I certainly think I'd be trying to lift the state of emergency as fast as possible to show IS they weren't going to rattle France no matter what they threw at us. If they sense that they're getting more of a reaction they're more likely to try again, so keeping things functioning and open should be prioritised. I'd also be throwing more funds into counter-radicalisation and look into community services in France's most disaffected neighbourhoods, and I'd be opening up to the Schengen area again as soon as I could, though neither of those options are showy or popular so they probably won't happen. Stemming the flow of manpower and resources to IS should be absolutely the first priority on the list though. Also, push for a more effective Europe-wide central counterterrorism unit to be set up to coordinate between different countries - again, won't happen, but it seems to be emerging that a lot of the reasons these guys weren't picked up was that they were operating across the Franco-Belgian border.

In the Middle East, airstrikes seem to be sort working over time though painfully slowly, I'm not sure how good the argument is for a targeted ground campaign; I think if a ground campaign happened it would probably have to be in Iraq mainly, to cut off the Syrian and Iraqi IS groups (the Kurds are already trying to adopt this strategy) and then take Mosul, the loss of IS' capital would be a serious blow for them. I've certainly seen it suggested that a major reason why IS is looking to move to terror attacks is that they're starting to lose ground and so it's harder for them to get recruits across the borders from Turkey (this is probably why Obama made his unfortunate remarks on containment; they're not advancing so well in the ground war, but that's sadly not the same as them being contained, as it means they're setting up terror cells instead of trying to recruit ground fighters). I'd also be trying to encourage defections etc where possible and see if IS could be broken up at all from the inside; unlikely at present but if the Caliph was taken out then I don't think there's any clear successor.

[Jubal]

Also this, so much this:

[comrade_general]

I thought that was going to be a political spiel but surprisingly it was good.