Author Topic: The Crowne Grippe (COVID-19 Thread)  (Read 16290 times)

Caradìlis

  • Citizens
    Voting Member
  • Posts: 2805
  • Karma: 2
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: The Crowne Grippe (COVID-19 Thread)
« Reply #45 on: April 03, 2020, 10:00:58 AM »
Good news from Austria since yesterday, infection rates seem to descend (percentage wise) it seems the whole isolation program is working... Other countries, take note... :)
"Those who don't beieve in magic will never find it." - Roald Dahl

Jubal

  • Megadux
    Executive Officer
  • Posts: 35495
  • Karma: 140
  • Awards Awarded for oustanding services to Exilian!
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: The Crowne Grippe (COVID-19 Thread)
« Reply #46 on: April 03, 2020, 11:15:24 AM »
Yes, it's been noticeable in the statistics for quite a few days now - if anything, the problem Austria might have is that we'll have built up basically no herd immunity, so we'll get cases dropping off significantly by mid-May, but then when we relax the restrictions we'll be very vulnerable to it blowing up again. Though at least we're better prepared for it now.
The duke, the wanderer, the philosopher, the mariner, the warrior, the strategist, the storyteller, the wizard, the wayfarer...

dubsartur

  • Citizens
    Voting Member
  • Posts: 1029
  • Karma: 4
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: The Crowne Grippe (COVID-19 Thread)
« Reply #47 on: April 03, 2020, 06:19:42 PM »
Lets give it a week or two.  This may be the phase in the story where we have conversations like "our entrenchments are holding!  With the hill on one side and the marsh on the other the tyrants and their slaves can't get through.  Gracchus, have your men reported anything on the rustling from the reedbeds?" "No, imperator, they went 50 paces into the marsh and they did not see anything."  "Right, so lets move on to logistics ... Perses, how many amphorae of wine have you scrounged up?  If the number is not high enough I will sell you to the Parthians!"

If parts of Europe and some Anglo settler countries manage to contain the disease by May, reducing travel restrictions will be a mess.  If it goes out of control in some Canadian provinces, US states, and Schengen countries but is contained in others, how can you allow travel without opening the floodgates to infectious people?

My understanding is that herd immunity is only possible if you accept the low estimates for infectivity and assume that infected people are immune for an extended period of time.  If you accept the high estimate for infectivity, or assume that people infected can be infected again a few months later, then more than 90% of the population could be infected before the disease starts to become rare.
« Last Edit: April 03, 2020, 07:01:12 PM by dubsartur »

dubsartur

  • Citizens
    Voting Member
  • Posts: 1029
  • Karma: 4
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: The Crowne Grippe (COVID-19 Thread)
« Reply #48 on: April 03, 2020, 09:25:14 PM »
Also, at the start of this week, after two weeks of stay-at-home and three weeks of closed schools, the government believed that covid-19 was spreading in ?AT? or Tirol as fast as a seasonal flu spreads in a normal winter with people out working and drinking and partying and exercising together.  So they brought in the masks for shoppers and probably some other tweaks in hopes of bringing the number of people infected by each infected person closer to 1. 

Nobody knows how many are sick or dying (the test of essential workers suggests that Austria has only identified 20% of people with covid-19) but the public health workers are worried. 

I am sorry, I keep talking about serious things.

Jubal

  • Megadux
    Executive Officer
  • Posts: 35495
  • Karma: 140
  • Awards Awarded for oustanding services to Exilian!
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: The Crowne Grippe (COVID-19 Thread)
« Reply #49 on: April 03, 2020, 09:35:05 PM »
I think the assumption that infected people have extended immunity is generally considered to be a workable one, though not a proven one as yet - but as I recall the virus has mutated remarkably little since it started, which would tend to imply that immunity would be stable too. But yes, herd immunity probably does mean most people getting the disease at some point. The trouble is, given we can't maintain a lockdown to a timescale big enough to allow for a vaccine to be produces, most people will get the disease. The best we can do is try to keep its progress below the capacity of the intensive care system until we have a vaccine - what other plan is there? Letting it run riot means unacceptable loss of life, but we can't eradicate it realistically either by any means other than herd immunity or vaccinations - no lockdown, no testing regime, will be quite thorough enough for a disease this widespread. And we can't maintain total lockdown for a year and a bit without mass casualties from lots of other problems.

I think we actually do have a decent handle on how many people are dying in Austria - that's rather clearer, if not entirely so, than trying to work out infection rates.

The masks for shoppers thing seems to be having an awkward roll-out - which is to say, I went shopping today and did not wear a mask at any point, because, well, there weren't any being given out at the shop, or indeed any on sale at the shop, and I can't create them by magic. I guess maybe the bigger supermarkets are rolling them out first? Meanwhile I still don't have hot water, my arms are to put it gently buggered, the humidity in my flat is a mess and teaching is exhausting. I've been listening to Wolf 359 a lot and finding all the stuff about being on a space station with repeatedly failing life support systems really quite relatable to my situation. Except I'm lacking the wisecracking AI voiceover to talk to.
The duke, the wanderer, the philosopher, the mariner, the warrior, the strategist, the storyteller, the wizard, the wayfarer...

dubsartur

  • Citizens
    Voting Member
  • Posts: 1029
  • Karma: 4
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: The Crowne Grippe (COVID-19 Thread)
« Reply #50 on: April 03, 2020, 09:59:54 PM »
If you assume that every infected person infects 2-3 others in the circumstances of normal life and people who have been infected once are immune for the next few years, then you achieve herd immunity when 60-80% of the population have been infected.  But since February, there have been epidemiologists who believe that the true number was more like 4 or 5 new infections per patient in China before the lockdown (https://doi.org/10.1101/2020.02.18.20024315) and they tell me that in that case, there is no way to just let the virus race through the less vulnerable population then die out.

A lot of these fashionable online conference and chat systems sound impossible for anyone, and especially an introvert, to manage: too many things flashing at you at once and demanding instant replies.

Caradìlis

  • Citizens
    Voting Member
  • Posts: 2805
  • Karma: 2
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: The Crowne Grippe (COVID-19 Thread)
« Reply #51 on: April 04, 2020, 11:04:42 AM »
The masks for shoppers thing seems to be having an awkward roll-out - which is to say, I went shopping today and did not wear a mask at any point, because, well, there weren't any being given out at the shop, or indeed any on sale at the shop, and I can't create them by magic. I guess maybe the bigger supermarkets are rolling them out first?

According to what I heard on the news, shops under 400 square meters do not have to abide by that rule, but it is reccommended that everyone try and get a mask for themselves... Do you know anyone crafty who can sew you one and drop it in your mailbox, maybe?
"Those who don't beieve in magic will never find it." - Roald Dahl

Jubal

  • Megadux
    Executive Officer
  • Posts: 35495
  • Karma: 140
  • Awards Awarded for oustanding services to Exilian!
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: The Crowne Grippe (COVID-19 Thread)
« Reply #52 on: April 04, 2020, 04:38:35 PM »
I don't think I know anyone nearby who sews (I mean I can sew, but I don't have a machine and I'm hardly efficient). I've got a neck-warmer that I can wear over my face for next time I go, it'll be as good as a cloth mask - though I'm not super convinced that masks below surgical levels are all that useful, given the increased risk of touching one's face to adjust it (especially for someone like me with skin conditions so I might actually have to). But I'll probably do that anyway, to avoid people getting on my case about it

Quote
A lot of these fashionable online conference and chat systems sound impossible for anyone, and especially an introvert, to manage: too many things flashing at you at once and demanding instant replies.
Yes, I've mostly shifted to asynchronous teaching in order to avoid video conferences - larger scales than about 9-10 people really don't work so well over video, I think, I'm happy using it for very small group sessions, or team meetings, but anything bigger is an absolute nope. I'm doing a text-chat on slack weekly with my class - text means I don't end up losing people's questions to glitches or confusion - and doing a lot of emailing, setting homework for most of the actual teaching load. But it's proving a lot of work compared to running the class normally.
The duke, the wanderer, the philosopher, the mariner, the warrior, the strategist, the storyteller, the wizard, the wayfarer...

dubsartur

  • Citizens
    Voting Member
  • Posts: 1029
  • Karma: 4
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: The Crowne Grippe (COVID-19 Thread)
« Reply #53 on: April 06, 2020, 02:11:00 PM »
Austria has introduced its first odd law: an obligation to use shopping carts in large suparmarkets to keep customers separated. 

And two Innsbruck professors of constitutional law have written an opinion piece explaining: no, you can't make everyone wear a tracker, Austria is a country of laws and after '45 we planted a constitutional forest from Wien to Vorarlberg that a little wind like that can't blow over http://www.foederalismus.at/blog/stellungnahme-zur-verfassungskonformitaet-einer-verpflichtenden-tracking-app_230.php

dubsartur

  • Citizens
    Voting Member
  • Posts: 1029
  • Karma: 4
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: The Crowne Grippe (COVID-19 Thread)
« Reply #54 on: April 07, 2020, 09:33:28 AM »
Tirol is ending its self-isolation and the quarantine of all 279 communities (a few remote communities are still under specific quarantines) on Tuesday 7 April.

Silver Wolf

  • Megas Domestikos
    Voting Member
  • Posts: 4744
  • Karma: 42
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: The Crowne Grippe (COVID-19 Thread)
« Reply #55 on: April 09, 2020, 01:12:42 PM »
Czech republic is slowly toning down the measures.
"Less of a young professional - more of an ancient amateur. But frankly, I'm an absolute dream."

Jubal

  • Megadux
    Executive Officer
  • Posts: 35495
  • Karma: 140
  • Awards Awarded for oustanding services to Exilian!
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: The Crowne Grippe (COVID-19 Thread)
« Reply #56 on: April 09, 2020, 02:15:48 PM »
Austria is planning to open small shops from next Tuesday, AIUI, with a staged draw-down process planned between now and June/July.

We've been told today that the University will not be opening any in-person classes for the remainder of the semester, which is good to know in advance really so we know all our teaching is online now.
The duke, the wanderer, the philosopher, the mariner, the warrior, the strategist, the storyteller, the wizard, the wayfarer...

dubsartur

  • Citizens
    Voting Member
  • Posts: 1029
  • Karma: 4
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: The Crowne Grippe (COVID-19 Thread)
« Reply #57 on: April 10, 2020, 05:59:03 PM »
SORA in Austria has released the results of their test of a representative sample of the population for covid-19!  Out of 1,544 residents tested between 1 and 6 April, 0.33% (five?) returned positive.  That is 3 times the rate of diagnosed cases at that date.  If the sample was representative, that is strong evidence that less than 1% of the population were infected at that date three weeks after the beginning of stay-at-home.

https://www.sora.at/nc/news-presse/news/news-einzelansicht/news/covid-19-praevalenz-1006.html

My estimate was that somewhere between 1% and 10% were infected by 15 March, so I was wrong.

Bommer and Vollmer estimated that 1% of the population of Austria was infected on 31 March by comparing diagnosed infections on one date with the deaths 14 days later and assuming that deaths represent around 1% of the true number of cases.
« Last Edit: April 10, 2020, 08:29:43 PM by dubsartur »

dubsartur

  • Citizens
    Voting Member
  • Posts: 1029
  • Karma: 4
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: The Crowne Grippe (COVID-19 Thread)
« Reply #58 on: April 16, 2020, 11:16:08 PM »
Apollo is so excited that he has shot three arrows of ebola at the Democratic Republic of the Congo https://www.who.int/news-room/detail/14-04-2020-who-director-general-s-statement-on-ihr-emergency-committee-on-ebola-virus-disease-in-the-democratic-republic-of-the-congo

Here is the English executive summary of the report from 30 March which caused the government of Austria to require the wearing of masks from 6 April.  Their best estimate was that after two weeks of stay-at-home and three weeks of closed universities, the virus was still spreading faster than a seasonal flu spreads in times of normal life https://www.oesterreich.gv.at/dam/jcr:43a9c348-38f5-4315-9dd0-6c98c7a2a85c/Executive_Summary_COVID-19_engl._2._Version_.pdf
« Last Edit: April 17, 2020, 12:42:35 PM by dubsartur »

Gmd

  • The one and only
  • Citizens
    Voting Member
  • Posts: 1461
  • Karma: 3
  • Quack
    • View Profile
    • Awards
Re: The Crowne Grippe (COVID-19 Thread)
« Reply #59 on: April 24, 2020, 12:31:13 PM »
https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-52407177



The US is in trouble with Trump, if this is how he understands things when he has just been briefed by some of the top Doctors in his country.
Bunneh and I Rule this land in the name of Supreme Lord Krishna.

(\__/)
(='.'=)
(")_(") 


Give me my green name back!!! I am always Logothetes