The US Presidential Election 2016

[comrade_general]

RP is the only logical and reasonable choice among the big parties. Sadly people are too stupid to want logic and reason.

[Jubal]

Bit of a dogmatic statement in itself, no?

[comrade_general]

Negative.

[Jubal]

That too

[Gmd]

I saw Trumps TV ad, and tbh it honestly terrifying that its not a joke.

[comrade_general]

It is. Trumps campaign is run by the Clintons/Obamas.

[Jubal]

I'm unconvinced by that theory, but if it's true then - as I said before - disreputable but immensely ballsy move.

US politics just depresses me tbh, I don't see anyone actually wanting to introduce effective democracy into the US, I don't like the Dem establishment but I'd still vote for them on grounds of relative sanity over the GOP candidates who frankly all look like parodies with like three or four exceptions (Christie looks like a standard dull Bush era Republican, Paul looks like a very old fashioned conservative and Kasich doesn't look like anything because he's as exciting as watching grass grow). The anti-establishment candidate of the left is standing on the radical platform of giving the US things that most of the rest of the world thinks are just totally normal basics and that's enough to nuke his chances of gaining office.

I do think that the biggest campaign priority for decent people in either party should be to make congressional districts set by an independent commission, the gerrymandering of the house is ridiculous and has led to, under both Bush and Obama (Bush more so though under Obama I think it's become better known) significant executive overreach in response. The legislative arm of the US government hasn't been functional since the Dems lost their supermajority, creating a situation where you either have no functional government or a functional one-party state, it's absurd.

[Jubal]

Updates:

National polls
- Sanders seems to be surging upwards nationally, not overtaking Clinton yet but getting to around the 40% mark whilst Clinton has dipped below 50%. Clinton's lead has dipped below 10% for the first time in the campaign.
- Carson continues to slump, Trump still sitting on over a third of the vote, Cruz seems to be falling back a bit with Rubio steady.

Iowa
- Sanders, in line with the national polls, is shooting upwards whilst Clinton is falling back. Clinton's lead in the polling average is now under a percentage point.
- Cruz has fallen back a bit and now sits dead level with Trump, who has held steady. Rubio and Christie have made small gains.

New Hampshire
- Sanders maintains a slim lead over Hilary and has increased it a little again to 6% in the polling averages.
- Trump maintains a strong lead, followed by Rubio and then, of all people, Kasich

Other news
- Obama's last State of the Union address has been given, said pretty much what you'd expect.
- Gary Johnson has announced he wants to be the Libertarian nominee again (and is probably the clear front-runner for the job, though there are eleven other candidates including John McAfee of virus-checking fame).

So Trump still the Republican front-runner, Sanders suddenly threatening Clinton much more than it previously appeared was the case.

[comrade_general]

[Jubal]

Iowa for the Dems is still knife-edge stuff - Sanders took the lead for the first time yesterday by a whopping 0.2%, Clinton has a 0.2% lead again today

Trump looking strong in both, Sanders pulling away from Clinton to a solid lead in NH.

[comrade_general]

[Jubal]

We're going to end up with a quote-ziggurat with that at the summit by November

[Jubal]

AND WE'RE OFF!

IOWA RESULTS

GOP
Ted Cruz: 28%, +8
Donald Trump: 24% +7
Marco Rubio: 23% +7
Ben Carson: 9% +3
Rand Paul 5% +1
Jeb Bush 3% +1

Democrats
Hilary Clinton 50% +23
Bernie Sanders 50% +21

So basically, dead heat for the Dems, split for the GOP with Cruz now the leader and Rubio probably swinging into gear as the establishment candidate... unless Kasich can pull off a good second in New Hampshire, in which case it'll be four of them (Cruz, Rubio, Trump, Kasich) left with a decent chance. It may well be a while before Carson, Paul, and Bush drop out too - Paul especially might be someone who hangs in there, because if he can pull together a small group of delegates in a race that looks like heading for a floor fight at the convention he could hold quite a lot of power. I can't see Bush trying the same thing, he's not ideologically driven enough and wouldn't want to be a VP candidate.

[comrade_general]

[SaidaiSloth]

I don't follow American politics much, so I probably shouldn't be posting here, but I thought I may as well express my thoughts:
-Trump is hilarious
-Clinton doesn't seem to have many good qualities
-Bernie seems nice.
-Everyone else is eh.

I'd vote for Bernie.

I hope you enjoyed my insight into murucan politics.