The US Presidential Election 2016

[Jubal]

We may as well start early

[comrade_general]

I hate you.

[Jubal]

Hey, we're still running literally 20 months behind your media

[comrade_general]

Ha the GOP wants to "draft" Romney because they are afraid of Trump and Carson being at the top. So if Dems are afraid of them and Repubs are afraid of them it can only be good for everyone else. portugal the establishment and career politicians!

[Jubal]

I think the Dems - given I get a lot of Dem news sources - are a bit bemused by the whole thing to be honest, not least because either Carson or Trump look (from current polls) like they'd be flattened by either Sanders or Clinton. For the Democrats, I think it's something of a mixed blessing; on the one hand, they're more likely to beat Trump or Carson than people like Bush or Jindal, on the other, it would set their policy goals back about a century if Trump or Carson actually won the presidency. The GOP establishment must be panicking like anything though, whilst I can't stand either Carson or Trump (and I think either would reduce the US to a laughing stock on the world stage, pretty rapidly) once certainly can say they're opposed to the party's careerist wing.

Meanwhile on the Democrat side they're having a more even battle, with Clinton as the well-funded establishment candidate and Bernie Sanders, of all people, as her main challenger from well outside the Dem establishment. Trump VS Sanders would be a bizarre presidential campaign to watch.

[comrade_general]

Holy hell, you really should look into more sources than Dem news. Of course they would say something like that. In reality they are freaking out too.
By the way, we've been a laughing stock for a long, long time now.

[Jubal]

Oh, I read GOP sources too on a news level - the point I was making is that I get more internal or private stuff being batted around within the Dem party organisation, whereas for the GOP I just get whatever their public websites and news outlets say. And yeah, as I say I think it's an odd mix - most Democrats I know genuinely feel they can beat the two GOP frontrunners, and I get the impression that's the belief within the party (in Trump's case the opinion polls give the Dems a clear edge, Carson tends to match up far more strongly against either Dem candidate), but they are nonetheless scared - they think they can win but are scared armadilloless of what happens if they fail.

And yeah, admittedly opinions of the US around the world aren't great - but certainly in the UK and I think quite a bit of Europe electing Trump or Carson would be seen as being on a whole new level of wtf. Both men have attitudes that would pretty much automatically lose them an election in any western European country you care to name.

[comrade_general]

Most Democrats you know? You're personal friends with Killary and Colonel Sanders? Even if not them you're saying others share their personal feelings with you specifically? What the hell are you saying?

The right can be religious wackos but damn the left sure is deluded.

[Jubal]

Obviously I don't know anyone high level, I'm saying that generally my strong impression - from a mix of sources, and not entirely from the standard propaganda engines - is that the Democrats believe that whoever they pick the probability is that they will manage to win. This is partly because they have a slight inbuilt advantage in the way the boundaries etc for presidential races work (whereas the Republicans have a strong advantage in congressional races).

There's certainly good evidence they can beat Trump, if you look at any recent data he trails either in general election matchups. Carson seems to be much more dangerous for the Democrats at the moment, he looks pretty capable of winning. It's obviously quite an early stage though, as Sanders and Carson in particular are only just appearing properly on the national stage, and opinions can shift by a few percent during the campaign potentially.

The current data from RCP's aggregators are as following:

Dem	GOP	Margin
Clinton	Trump	D +4.4
Clinton	Carson	R +4.0
Sanders	Trump	D +4.7
Sanders	Carson	R +6.7

[comrade_general]

Those numbers are nearly too close to be significant, when you take in to account variations. Romney would have less chance than those guys and he doesn't even want to run so they aren't doing it because they don't think those guys can win.
Hey, wasn't someone supposed to remind me not to bring up politics? All we're accomplishing is to destroy friendships.

[Jubal]

Yeah, I think any race would be moderately tight, we're not going to see a total landslide for either party.

Eh, I think with the current state of the world this crap's a bit hard to avoid. :/ Rest assured that I'm not going to take anything too personally!

EDIT: Also I really should start posting some less depressing stuff - will get on with trying to get to the stage where I can post some new threads about the projects I'm doing someday soon...

[Jubal]

Most recent updates:

Carson has tanked, he's down in the mid teens with Cruz and Rubio moving up to even/overtake him. Trump still up around 30%, big furore over his suggestion recently of a policy of temporarily preventing any Muslim immigration into the US. His idea has been condemned by most people from both parties, including suggestions that this might put servicepeople at risk by helping fuel Daesh recruitment (arguable), and people pointing out that his proposals as stated would for example block Afghan or Iraqi interpreters from being protected in the US after serving alongside the armed forces. Conservative commentators have also suggested that the split may precipitate a crisis at the GOP convention if (as I think is likely) it doesn't actually sink Trump at all.

Democrat race just sort of waddling on with few obvious fireworks; Clinton still has a reasonable 10 point lead in Iowa polls, and a much larger 25 point lead across the country as a whole, though Sanders appears to have closed the gap in New Hampshire.

[Jubal]

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-us-canada-35066940

Increasing allegations from the GOP establishment that Trump is actually a Democrat sleeper agent. Probably just a sign of panic. Both terrifying and hilarious if true, though I'm 99.99% certain it's bullarmadillo.

[comrade_general]

Paul made some headway last debate. People are starting to catch on. Honestly it wouldn't surprise me if Trump was just running to get Hillary elected.

[Jubal]

If so, ballsiest piece of totally underhand unfair politicking since Watergate. :p

And yeah, whilst I'm no fan of Rand is rather see him doing well than Cruz or Trump. I just can't see him winning any of the earlier states, and in a field this crowded he won't manage tp drag the others in his direction easily (as Sanders has more clearly done to Clinton). I do think the should change the order of the states every time, if say Colorado or Maine was first that would potentially give much better early momentum to more libertarian types for example. Current polling now has Cruz establishing a lead for the Iowa caucuses, Clinton keeping her lead in Iowa, and Trump and Sanders leading their races in New Hampshire.