Author Topic: The Crowne Grippe (COVID-19 Thread)  (Read 435 times)

Tusky

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Re: The Crowne Grippe (COVID-19 Thread)
« Reply #15 on: March 19, 2020, 05:58:46 PM »
I've been temporarily laid off  -_-

BUT stay tuned for billions of tourney updates  :)
Check out Tourney: The medieval tournament simulator, a PC game I am working on!
Links: Devlog thread here on Exilian | Tusky Games Website

dubsartur

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Re: The Crowne Grippe (COVID-19 Thread)
« Reply #16 on: March 19, 2020, 10:57:02 PM »
I am sorry to hear that, hope you can sort out unemployment insurance!

According to Graphtreon, the number of creators on Patreon increased 20% in the second week of March, I will be interested if the total donations move at all. 

At least 2% of my building are confirmed infected, and another 6-8% have flu-like symptoms.  And Tirol is maybe one or two doublings (2-8 days) ahead of most rich countries. 

Jubal

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Re: The Crowne Grippe (COVID-19 Thread)
« Reply #17 on: March 21, 2020, 06:15:06 PM »
I've been temporarily laid off  -_-

BUT stay tuned for billions of tourney updates  :)

I am very sorry :( In a way that is also pretty pumped for the Tourney updates...

Not had any cases reported among people I know in Vienna. One friend in Cambridge thinks she has it and is self isolating. I'm not surprised that lots of new Patreons are launching, though I do worry that total donations will be static at best. I've started working on a kickstarter project which if it goes well might provide some work for a friend - generally I'm really worried for all my friends who are artists, artisans, self-employed, unemployed, etc in particular.

Also the pendulum seems to have swung back again on whether I'm allowed public transport usage. I'm really exhausted and the stress is starting to impact my physical health already, which is a bit grim.
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dubsartur

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Re: The Crowne Grippe (COVID-19 Thread)
« Reply #18 on: March 22, 2020, 06:13:02 PM »
Yes, I don't know what the UK prime minister was thinking of with "people over 70 can just stay locked in their houses for four months and avoid contact with anyone younger.  They all have big airy detached houses with a garden that they can maintain themselves, someone to talk to, and four months of loneliness and inactivity will have no negative effects on their health."  In British Columbia, all of the deaths so far seem related to the Lynn Valley Care Home in Vancouver, and all that took was one person visiting the home and infecting someone.

Tirol has introduced a new quick test which takes a throat swab not a nose swab and can be analysed in 24 hours.  It may have to do with the two machines from Roche Diagnostics in Switzerland we imported to raise our capacity from ~0.7 tests/thousand people · day to ~4.4 tests/thousand people · day.  I think that by April 1st we will have some idea of the state of the problem.

dubsartur

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Re: The Crowne Grippe (COVID-19 Thread)
« Reply #19 on: March 23, 2020, 08:58:56 PM »
It looks like I was negative according to one test as of Sunday (22 March) evening.  "But the chronicler swerved aside and dodged dark death."

So the true rate in our building is 2% of the population, and there have been no new infections in the building since the initial discovery earlier in March.  Hygene and social distancing work!

Jubal

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Re: The Crowne Grippe (COVID-19 Thread)
« Reply #20 on: March 23, 2020, 09:46:59 PM »
Yay, glad to hear :) (Though of course in some ways it would be nice to discover one had had it and was now immune)

The UK has finally hit Austria-style lockdown, two weeks later than Austria and probably two weeks too late for a lot of UK patients in the coming weeks... meanwhile Austria are still saying they might loosen restrictions as soon as mid-April, though I'd be surprised if that happens.
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Glaurung

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Re: The Crowne Grippe (COVID-19 Thread)
« Reply #21 on: March 23, 2020, 10:38:37 PM »
Irony: having spent a good part of the last two weeks in a personal lockdown due to illness (quite possibly coronavirus, though I'll probably never find out for sure), just as soon as I'm fit to go out again I'm banned from doing so. To be clear: I approve of the lockdown in the current situation, and think it should have been introduced sooner - it's just unhappily timed from a personal perspective.

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Re: The Crowne Grippe (COVID-19 Thread)
« Reply #22 on: March 25, 2020, 11:27:34 AM »
Austria is stepping up its testing capacity fairly fast now, getting on for testing ca 5000 people per day (which wouldn't be much in a UK context, but we have far fewer people in total). This may ironically make it harder to tell from the raw stats if the quarantine is having much of an impact - because just at the point we should be expecting the restrictions to have an effect on the numbers, wider testing will be causing a spike in how many cases get picked up.

Meanwhile Trump says he wants the US open again by easter. And that he wants "packed churches all over our country". Is he trying to kill off chunks of his own voting base?
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dubsartur

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Re: The Crowne Grippe (COVID-19 Thread)
« Reply #23 on: March 25, 2020, 04:36:19 PM »
Yes, to understand how many people are already infected we need tests of a random sample of the population.  That data is not available to the public in most countries and I am afraid that the reason is that any medium-sized country which did so would leap to the top in the number of cases.

I think that early on the UK government had the plan 'we cannot stop this, so lets spread it as quickly as possible and get it over with.'  But committing to the death of around 1% of the population and a total collapse of the medical system in a single year, losses similar to the UK's losses in World War II but crammed into a single year, when so many things about this disease are uncertain and some countries seem to have contained it, is mad.  That is not the Dunkirk spirit, that is the Wehrmacht hearing their chief of logistics explain that an invasion of Russia would bog down well short of Moscow due to lack of fuel and transport, thanking him and invading anyways.

I imagine that one day we will hear in court what some of the US president's courtiers and sophists are telling each other.

I have my covid-19 reading list on my site, I am trying to emphasize the useful resources by Europeans and Asians and by scientists not by business owners with a Medium account.
« Last Edit: March 25, 2020, 04:41:51 PM by dubsartur »

dubsartur

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Re: The Crowne Grippe (COVID-19 Thread)
« Reply #24 on: March 25, 2020, 05:52:24 PM »
Also, my impression is that at the beginning of March experts were telling European governments that the infection was probably no longer controllable.  Angela Merkel's statement that 60-70% of the population of Germany will be infected in 2020 sounds like the kind of number that the UK government herd immunity plan was working with.  And if you assume the disease is not containable, there are apparently some arguments that letting it run wild would reduce the total deaths (although we are still talking about on the order of 1% of the population dying!)

But all of these numbers are very uncertain, and at least shutting down things for a few weeks gives time to prepare the medical system for masses of very sick people!  And currently most governments seem to think that they can at least slow the rate of infections to something the health care system can sort of handle.
« Last Edit: March 25, 2020, 06:07:16 PM by dubsartur »

Gmd

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Re: The Crowne Grippe (COVID-19 Thread)
« Reply #25 on: Today at 03:04:26 PM »
I work at the hospital and it's mad, and its only going to get worse over the next few weeks. They want my team to potential move to the ED as people drop. Currently huge capacity issues for critical care and everything/everyone getting juggled to help maintain it and we're not even close to the worst yet. Expected to be breaking point in the midlands by end of next week so wish us luck.
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