Messages

wine

Well, the election results were prestty much dead on accurate to the polls. We still don't have a government.

What we do have:

• President Van der Bellen pointed out that everyone had ruled out working with the FPO or had conflicting red lines with them so he hasn't given them a government formation mandate until that changes.
• The SPO are kinda distracted by some random guy deciding to launch a leadership challenge. And when I say some random guy, I mean Rudolf Fussi, a TV host and PR consultant who as far as I'm aware has never held public elected office and wasn't even a member as recently as the start of 2023. The SPO should possibly restrict who's allowed to head up leadership challenges? This all seems very silly.
• In general it seems like an OVP/SPO coalition, quite likely with NEOS on board, might be most likely: the SPO want to be back in government, the OVP don't want to give up the chancellor's office to the FPO. The risk is that both of them will need that government to work well to avoid a bigger FPO result next time.

Vorarlberg also had a state election today, which was sadly again good for the FPO but less good for them than hoped: the OVP will clearly remain the dominant party there, probably taking the FPO into coalition.

We're under a month out from the election now - into what even normal countries would consider a valid campaign season - and things are not looking great honestly. They're not looking hopeless either, but maybe, as they say, it's the hope that gets you. 538 at the time of writing have Harris 53-47 Trump as their percentage chances of winning the election: after a bounce for Harris when she became nominee, Trump seems to have closed the gap and the 1-2 point lead Harris seems to have in a lot of national polls isn't going to be enough in the swing states which tend to be a point or two better for the Republicans than the national average.

On the other hand: we don't know what turnout will look like, and it may be that polls are using too much of the last electoral cycle or two as a default when actually black voters and women might turn up in larger numbers than expected. Or Republican turnout might be lower, or Harris' financial advantage might weigh in... or on the other hand rural turnout might be huge, or swing voters might break for Trump over the economy, or voter suppression might be enough for Trump to win states he might have lost otherwise. It's close enough that any small knock in any direction could be "enough".

There's really not a lot more one can say from the evidence, but a lot hangs in the balance. It's fashionable in some circles to try and downplay the influence of the presidency on US policy, but I'm not sure how well the world can survive another term of the US pushing hard away from a viable climate agenda, or a US that's tacitly pro-Kremlin in its foreign policy alignments.

vole

I've added a bit re pets this weekend! There are two new pets available, a dog because I figured people would want a dog, and a lanfych, one of the weird two legged fishes that appear next to water bodies and down some dungeon tunnels in the game. You can raise either from a whelp/fry respectively to get a nameable pet now Also there are a couple more unique petting-the-fluffy-animal text vignettes, and a whole new set for interactions with pets that, like the lanfych, are a bit more slimy and less fluffly.

mousse

buttons

Ooh tricky. I like both, in moderation! I think these days probably dark chocolate slightly wins, though younger Jubal would be horrified to hear that.

Would you rather own an old blue cloak or a new grey dress?

boots

rucksack

Zebras I think.

Barbegazi or Knockers? (The comparable little folk folkloric creature in the latter case, not the door or euphemistic anatomical versions of that term!)

leather

Friend-shaped. I think I may in fact be friend-shaped. I hope I am friend-shaped.

Would you rather whales or elephants?

horse

16th. Always here for some big wooden beams!

Would you rather live in a Monastery, or a Tueastery? (What a Tueastery is you can only speculate)